BEIJING - Tension has spiked again on the
Korean Peninsula over annual joint United
States-South Korean war games, with North Korean
threatening to turn Seoul into a "sea of fire".
Washington and Seoul have stressed that
the "Key Resolve/Foal Eagle" exercises are
defensive in nature. But South Korea's daily DongA
Ilbo reported on Tuesday that they simulate
scenarios such as "fighter jets striking Pyongyang
and South Korean special commandos securing the
Yongbyon nuclear site" in the event of a "military
coup or the death of Kim Jong-il".
Some
200,000 South Korean soldiers and about 12,800 US
troops are participating in the 11-day exercises
that began on
Monday involving computer war
simulations, live-fire drills and field training.
Claiming the exercises are a preparation
for invasion, North Korea's military is reportedly
on high alert, with Mercedes limousines sighted
near the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ) on Tuesday, a
sign that high-ranking generals are inspecting the
area. "The situation is most sensitive," said the
Korea Herald on Tuesday.
Further ramping
up tensions is the launch of aid balloons to North
Korea by the South Korean military, with the
packages containing clothes, daily necessities,
medicine and student stationery - and millions of
propaganda leaflets detailing the popular revolts
in the Middle East and North Africa.
North
Korea has called it "psychological libel tactics",
threatening to shoot anyone along the Korean
border seen launching the balloons. While there
have been sporadic distributions of propaganda by
balloons in recent years by civic organizations,
this is the first time the military has done it in
seven years.
South Korean Defense Minister
Kim Kwan-jin told lawmakers on Friday that he
expected the North to launch fresh attacks this
spring, after its attach last November on a South
Korean island, killing four, and alleged sinking
of a South Korean corvette in March. Inter-Korean
military talks hoped to ease the tensions raised
by those incidents in mid-February broke down
after a matter of hours.
North Korea's DMZ
representative warned that its military would
respond to any provocations with "merciless
counteraction" and "full-scale war", and that it
would "counter a nuclear threat with a nuclear
deterrent and missile strikes with
counterstrikes".
Piao Jianyi, an expert on
Korean affairs at the Chinese Academy of Social
Sciences in Beijing, warns that the situation
could get out of control, and that if it does, it
is the South's fault.
"At a time when
North Korea is focused on building up its economy,
it is South Korea that is mounting the real
provocations," he said. "When North Korea's
patience runs out, all possibilities are on the
table, including artillery and even nuclear
attacks. South Korea is goading [the North] to
ratchet up tensions."
Claiming that the
South is reluctant to resume the stalled six-party
talks on the North's nuclear program, which
Beijing promotes as the best option among all the
other alternatives, Piao said, "I've been watching
the Lee Myung-bak administration's approach on
North Korea for the last three years. And now I
find it quite difficult to comprehend."
South Korean analysts, however, remain
nonplussed. "North Korea's threats are not news.
They've been there all the time," said Lee
Sang-hyun, a senior researcher at the Sejong
Institute think-tank near Seoul. "The North
appears particularly worried about possible
information inflow on the unrest in the Arab
countries."
Lee said North Korea's
unusually strong warnings were a sign that it was
"cornered", proposing that Seoul take this
opportunity to send a "clear signal" of
deterrence. "Of course, there are risks involved.
But South Korea shouldn't scale down or halt the
military drills, succumbing to the North's
threats."
A senior South Korean military
official told the New York Times that the
propaganda messages carried by the balloons were
intended to act like a "virus". "The most
dangerous virus for the regime is the truth about
the outside world and the truth about themselves
... They try to contain and prevent information
from infiltrating. But they don’t have a vaccine
against this kind of virus."
However,
South Korean President Lee Myung-bak on Tuesday
extended an olive branch to Pyongyang. In a speech
commemorating the 92nd anniversary of the March 1
popular uprising against Japan's colonial rule of
Korea, he said, "We are ready to engage in
dialogue with the North any time, with an open
mind."
The Ilmin International Relations
Institute of Korea University, a Seoul-based
security think-tank focused on relations with the
North, released a newsletter on Tuesday titled
"Drills are necessary for North Korean
contingency". The university is where hardline
Unification Minister Hyun in-taek taught before he
assumed the post.
"I think it's not Lee
Myung-bak, but rather his hardline advisors who
are the main source of this tension," said Piao in
Beijing.
Critics say Lee and his
administration are playing a good-cop, bad-cop
routine, but they are more likely just seeking the
right contingency plans.
Observers have
long warned about miscalculations on the fraught
peninsula. "There is always the danger of
escalation. North Korea can retaliate at a time
and place of their choosing," said Daniel
Pinkston, an analyst who focuses on inter-Korean
relations at the Brussels-based International
Crisis Group.
Unlike Piao in Beijing,
Pinkston believes it is Pyongyang that cannot risk
provocation. "North Korea has to think about
consequences. They will suffer greater losses if
they launch a rocket attack or artillery attack
against the South. It's almost certain, based on
the very senior [South Korean] military people
whom I talked to, that there will be
counter-strikes against those positions. In terms
of firepower and precision-guided weapons, the
North Korean army will take some serious
punishment. So, if I had the chance to speak to
any North Korean officials, I would tell them:
'Just don't do it'."
"This is a war of
nerves," said Park Sang-seek, a professor at the
Graduate Institute of Peace Studies of Kyung Hee
University in Seoul. "And no one seems to know the
exact secret recipe of how to deal with North
Korea. That's the problem."
Sunny
Lee (sleethenational@gmail.com) is a
Seoul-born columnist and journalist; he has
degrees from the US and China.
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