(Translated by https://www.hiragana.jp/)
ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR
...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL STORM ISMAEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT TUE SEP 12 1995
...CORRECTION FOR SPELLING OF ISMAEL...
DURING MOST OF THE AFTERNOON...SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALED A TYPICAL
BANDING TYPE PATTERN. THE BANDING FEATURES ARE SOMEWHAT REMOVED
FROM THE CENTER AT THIS TIME...BUT DEEP CONVECTION HAS RECENTLY
INCREASED OVER THE SUSPECTED CENTER AND BOTH SAB AND NHC ARE
CLASSIFYING THE SYSTEM AS A T2.5 ON THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE. THEREFORE
...INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 35 KNOTS AND TROPICAL
DEPRESSION TEN-E IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM ISMAEL. THE
PRONUNCIATION OF ISMAEL IS ESE-MA-EL WITH THE ACCENT ON THE LAST
SYLLABLE.
SINCE THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW APPEARS WELL ESTABLISHED AND THE SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR C...CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST.
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 325/06. ALL OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A MORE WESTWARD TRACK WITH TIME. HOWEVER...THE UPPER LOW
OVER NORTHWESTERN MEXICO VISIBLE IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DOES NOT
SEEM INITIALIZED TOO WELL IN THE NMC AVIATION MODEL RUN FROM Z.
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTY OF THE IMPACT OF THE UPPER LOW...WE ARE
TO THE RIGHT OF ALL OF THE BAM GUIDANCE. THIS TRACK BASICALLY
UPDATES THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE DEEP
LAYER BAM AND THE STATISTICAL/SYNOPTIC MODEL.
MAYFIELD
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 13/0300Z 15.5N 106.9W 35 KTS
12HR VT 13/1200Z 16.2N 107.4W 40 KTS
24HR VT 14/0000Z 16.9N 108.2W 50 KTS
36HR VT 14/1200Z 17.7N 109.2W 60 KTS
48HR VT 15/0000Z 18.3N 110.3W 70 KTS
72HR VT 16/0000Z 19.0N 112.5W 75 KTS
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