STATEN ISLAND, N.Y. -- If Michael Grimm tries to make another run for his old seat in Congress, challenging his successor Rep. Daniel Donovan, his former supporters say he would have a steep uphill battle.
Grimm is said to be eyeing a return to the House after having served eight months in prison for federal tax fraud.
He didn't return a call for comment, but former staff, campaign volunteers and supporters say they don't think Grimm, with his felony record, could win against incumbent Donovan, the district attorney for 12 years.
A member of the Staten Island Republican Party's executive board supported Grimm and his past campaigns, backing Grimm until, having maintained his innocence throughout the indictment and re-election in November 2014, he pleaded guilty the following month.
"The fact that he plead guilty at all is a slap in the face for everyone who voted for him and supported him in 2014," the source said, adding, "I don't believe that Michael would have much support in the rank and file of the Staten Island Republican Party. I don't think they'd go with a convicted felon over someone who supports Trump's agenda 75 percent of the time."
Some conservatives are unhappy with Donovan's vote against the Republican bill to repeal Obamacare, but even the congressman's critics say Grimm will have a tough time winning, if he decides to run.
There are currently five Democrats hoping to challenge Donovan, all first-time candidates with little or no name recognition.
A Donovan spokeswoman, Jessica Proud, said, "Whether it's his leadership on homeland security, his work to protect good-paying jobs for our community or his fight to get the seawall done, Dan is laser-focused on delivering results. In a short time, he has established a record the people of Staten Island can be proud of, and we're confident the politics will take care of itself."
A former D.C. staffer for Grimm thinks the potential run, or a campaign itself, is a way for Grimm to get buzz so he can get work as a lobbyist.
"I think it's a means to an end," the former staffer said.
But if he did get elected, he would be inefficient, the staffer argued.
"You might as well just elect nobody because no one on the Hill will want to be within 10 feet of him."
Grimm might also have to deal with the House Ethics Committee.
The committee had been looking into allegations that Grimm solicited and accepted illegal campaign contributions and filed false campaign finance reports. It was also alleged that he brokered a deal to get an Israeli citizen a green card in return for campaign contributions.
But the Ethics Committee deferred its investigation as the Department of Justice prosecuted Grimm for the tax fraud during his time as co-owner of Healthalicious, a Manhattan health food restaurant before holding elected office.
The committee ceased investigating after Grimm resigned from Congress, but could possibly reopen the case if the former congressman makes an effort to retake his seat.
A Staten Island Republican insider who was once a Grimm ally said it would be tough for Grimm to fundraise against Donovan because most of his network now supports Donovan.
The same goes for Washington -- Donovan is the incumbent and has strong relationships.
"I don't see any organization in D.C. gambling with their interest by giving money to Michael," the source said. "But there are a lot of people who do support Michael over anybody else, so he's going to be able to raise some money."
The source noted that for the first time in many years, Donovan won both the Staten Island and Brooklyn sides of the district in the 2016 race.
"It's certainly going to be an uphill battle for Michael. That being said, Michael took down an established former councilman, and congressman in 2010."
A Grimm campaign could call attention to his help for constituents during and after Hurricane Sandy, but then again, Donovan has sponsored flood insurance bills, fought for FEMA reform and worked with Build It Back.
As for gaining sympathy from voters who see Grimm's charges as the result of a political prosecution, "That's the best card that he has," the source said.
Guy Molinari, Grimm's friend and mentor, a former borough president and congressman, has always defended his younger ally, calling him an American hero for serving as a Marine, FBI agent and congressman.
He has said repeatedly he would like to see Grimm return to public office, and was the one to float the idea of Grimm running for borough president.
He wouldn't say Thursday whether Grimm is considering running.
"It's up to Michael, he's got to call the shots," Molinari said.
But Grimm's time in public office isn't over, he vowed.
"He will emerge again someday -- there's no question in my mind, he will return to public office, but when I don't know."