Determining Statistical Pattern on the Drug-Related Killing in Philippines Using ARIMA and Poisson Techniques

Adrian Tamayo

MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany

Abstract: A univariate time series technique was conducted to determine statistical pattern on killings of drug suspects in Philippines from May 19 to July 7, 2016. The technique reveal a moving-average of order 2, MA(2) with a positive coefficient suggestive that value of outcome variable tend to increase, on the average, than the recent value of . This means that drug-related killings will tend to be higher than the most current rate; and killings is seen to increase as weekend comes. Poisson regression indicated an average of 13 deaths on a Sunday; only 2 on average on a Monday; odds of survival increases as well as weekend comes. Finally, the forecast model and the simulation are limited by the data used. Structure of the univariate series may change as additional data are added; this is also true for the forecasted average occurrence.

Keywords: drug violence; influence; government (search for similar items in EconPapers)
JEL-codes: C53 (search for similar items in EconPapers)
Date: 2016-07-13
New Economics Papers: this item is included in nep-sea
References: View references in EconPapers View complete reference list from CitEc
Citations: View citations in EconPapers (1) Track citations by RSS feed

Forthcoming in Journal of Drug Issues Vol. 46, No. 4.Vol 46(2016): pp. 1-13

Downloads: (external link)
https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/72518/1/MPRA_paper_72518.pdf original version (application/pdf)

Related works:
This item may be available elsewhere in EconPapers: Search for items with the same title.

Export reference: BibTeX RIS (EndNote, ProCite, RefMan) HTML/Text

Persistent link: https://EconPapers.repec.org/RePEc:pra:mprapa:72518

Access Statistics for this paper

More papers in MPRA Paper from University Library of Munich, Germany Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany. Contact information at EDIRC.
Bibliographic data for series maintained by Joachim Winter ().