In Maharashtra, amid widening Mahayuti rifts, BJP ‘upset’ with Ajit NCP, ‘wary’ of Shinde Sena

Among the major factors for the BJP’s poor performance in the Lok Sabha polls in the state, which was identified by the party’s core committee meeting held in Delhi Tuesday, was the lack of coordination between the alliance partners at the grassroots level.

Notwithstanding the rifts within the Mahayuti, the question confronting the BJP, both at the Centre and in the state, is whether it can afford to get rid of either one or both of its allies ahead of the Assembly polls slated for October this year.

Officially, state BJP president Chandrashekhar Bawankule said, “The BJP’s alliance with the Shiv Sena and NCP is a reality in the state government. It will remain for the 2024 Assembly polls.” He added that the alliance would learn from its “mistakes” in the Lok Sabha polls and collectively address its shortcomings. Similar sentiments were echoed by Shinde and Ajit Pawar.

Yet, the second-rung leaders of all three parties are engaged in a full-fledged war of words, blaming each other for the defeat in the Lok Sabha polls. The Mahayuti alliance won just 17 of the state’s 48 Lok Sabha seats as compared to the Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi’s (MVA) 30 seats. The MVA comprises the Congress, the Uddhav Thackeray-led Shiv Sena (UBT) and the Sharad Pawar-led NCP (SP).

Tension between BJP, NCP

There have been at least two recent instances which indicate that the BJP might be upset with the NCP. At an RSS-BJP meeting held in Pune on Monday, some of their leaders said that allying with the NCP proved “detrimental” for the BJP.

A senior BJP functionary who attended the meeting said, “The BJP made a blunder by splitting the NCP and getting the Ajit Pawar faction as an alliance partner. It has gone against the BJP internally as well as publicly.”

Last week, in his piece in the RSS-linked journal Organiser, RSS ideologue Ratan Sharda questioned the BJP for striking an alliance with the NCP. “Sharad Pawar would have faded away over the next two to three years. The conflict between Supriya Sule and Ajit Pawar to control the party would have affected the party prospects. Why did the BJP heed the ill-advised step to go in alliance with Ajit Pawar NCP?” Sharda wrote.

In July 2023, when the BJP was said to have “masterminded” the split in the NCP, there was a “sense of achievement” in its ranks. The party leadership believed an alliance with the Ajit’s NCP faction would give them a stronger foothold in western Maharashtra, particularly in the prosperous sugar belt, which has 12 Lok Sabha and 70 Assembly seats. It also believed that a split in the NCP would undermine the hold of senior leader Sharad Pawar.

However, its strategy boomeranged as the split in the NCP gave a new lease of life to Pawar and helped him rejuvenate his faction with the “public sympathy factor” in its favour.

Not surprisingly then, a section of the BJP has sought to hold Ajit NCP responsible for their defeats in Solapur, Madha, Ahmednagar in the west and Dindori in the north.

The BJP won only nine seats, which was its worst performance since 1998. The NCP won just one seat out of the four it contested. The battle royale in the Pawar family’s Baramati home turf saw Supriya Sule, daughter of Sharad Pawar, retain the seat against Ajit’s wife Sunetra Pawar. NCP(SP) won eight of the 10 seats it contested.

The MVA is clearly riding high on their impressive performance. After their meeting earlier this week, the Congress, Shiv Sena (UBT) and NCP(SP) announced that they would contest the Assembly polls together. Despite some differences within the MVA, Pawar remains their key face whose ability to resolve crises remains undisputed.

Given that the BJP’s politics in Maharashtra has been anti-Pawar, the party’s decision to embrace any faction of the NCP was apparently not acceptable to its cadre.

In the 2014 Assembly poll, the BJP had emerged as the largest party with 122 seats in the 288-member House but fell short of the majority mark of 145. The then undivided NCP had pledged outside support, claiming it wanted stability in the state. An unhappy BJP cadre forced Devendra Fanavis to get the undivided Shiv Sena on board to form the government.

In 2019, after Uddhav broke away from the BJP, Ajit defected to the BJP, took oath as the Deputy CM and claimed to have the support of enough MLAs to form a coalition government. But the government lasted just three days and caused anger within the BJP. Ajit returned to the NCP soon.

Today, the BJP finds itself in a Catch-22 situation. If it breaks its alliance with Ajit, it will invite the charge of “use and throw” politics. If it continues its alliance with the NCP, it may come at a price.

State NCP president Sunil Tatkare said, “It was unfair to hold the NCP responsible for the debacle in Lok Sabha polls. The NCP has always been very accommodative and supportive as an alliance partner.”

The Ajit camp is already reasserting itself to ensure it does not buckle under the BJP’s pressure. Senior NCP leader Chhagan Bhujbal has already indicated the party would not settle for less than 80 to 90 Assembly seats.

Cautious approach to Sena

The BJP is also exercising caution in dealing with the Shinde Sena.

“Shinde Sena is shrewd. It cleverly retained the goodwill of activist Manoj Jarange Patil during the Maratha reservation agitation. But we bore the brunt as our leader Devendra Fadnavis was made the villain despite being the first politician who had given reservation to the community way back in 2018,” a BJP insider said.

The election results suggest the Maratha reservation stir had adversely affected the BJP, particularly in the Marathwada region, where it failed to win a single seat.

The bickering between the BJP and the Shiv Sena however continues. Sena leader Sanjay Shirsat accused the BJP of “misleading” them through its poll surveys. “Had we not heeded their surveys, we would have cleared at least four more seats,” he claimed.

Countering the Sena, a BJP insider said, “We made a mistake by bowing to the Sena’s pressure for Nashik, Mumbai South and Ramtek seats. They lost all these seats.”

Despite various problems, the BJP however knows that it may have to continue its alliances with Shinde and Ajit. As the BJP begins its preparations for the Assembly polls, its first test is to tackle the troubles within the Mahayuti.