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on China |
| By: | Kerola, Eeva; McCully, Tuuli; Nuutilainen, Riikka |
| Abstract: | Over the past twenty years, China has become the world's largest trading nation and a significant trading partner for most countries. Despite these important links, concerns regarding China's commercial and diplomatic goals persist due to its unique state-centric economic structure. This paper applies an augmented gravity model to tease out drivers of China's bilateral trade relationships, asking why some countries are more important than others as sources of Chinese imports. Our results show that both business and political considerations drive China's import decisions. Political friendliness with China, as measured by UN General Assembly voting records, or established trade agreements, has a positive impact on exports to China. The results further suggest that countries with official diplomatic ties with Taiwan export less to China. Membership in China's Belt and Road Initiative, however, does not generally translate into a significant increase in Chinese imports from the member country. |
| Keywords: | gravity model, international trade, China |
| JEL: | C23 F14 F15 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:zbw:bofitp:302570 |
| By: | DESEATNICOV, Ivan; Fukao, Kyoji; HAYAKAWA, Kazunobu; ITO, Keiko; KUCHERYAVYY, Konstantin |
| Abstract: | In this paper, we address the ongoing debate on technological decoupling by examining the effect of US export controls and China’s import tariffs on trade. By creating a detailed mapping between the products under the US export controls and 10-digit HS codes of US export products, we analyze the differences in US export reductions to China compared to other countries in 2017-2021. Contrary to expectations, we find no evidence that US export controls have led to a decrease in exports to China; in fact, these exports are either neutral or tend to increase relative to other countries. Additionally, our research indicates that China's imposition of additional import tariffs will likely diminish US exports to China. |
| Keywords: | Export regulation, Trade, Tariffs, Technological decoupling, United States, China |
| JEL: | F15 F53 |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hit:hituec:756 |
| By: | Jean-Éric Pelet (IAE - IAE AMIENS); Bonnie Canziani (University of North Carolina at Greensboro, Greensboro, USA); Nic Terblanche (Stellenbosch University) |
| Abstract: | ◦Purpose Teaching wine tasting online is challenging, even given the curated digital tools of the Wine & Spirit Education Trust, a highly renowned online wine certification system is used. This paper initially explores wine experts' opinions about online wine education and subsequently examines the feasibility of customizing wine appreciation lexicons to Chinese learners. ◦Design/methodology/approach A two-study multimethod approach was adopted. Study 1, a two-stage Delphi study, was conducted with seventeen wine experts representing a number of countries, using a mix of closed/open-ended questions in an online survey. Data was collected in a market study in Study 2, conducted at agricultural markets in Thailand (pilot test) and China. Dialogues with market sellers were undertaken, evoking mental imagery of wine descriptors to explore the relevance of traditional versus local aromas and flavors to describe wine. ◦Findings Findings concentrate on three main areas: general advantages/disadvantages of online wine education, reactions towards asynchronous/synchronous methods of wine tasting, and lastly, feasibility of customizing a wine appreciation lexicon for Chinese learners. ◦Originality The article presents novel insights into the role of online wine education in China. |
| Keywords: | China, Delphi study, Learning management systems, Online wine tasting evaluation, WSET certification, Sensorial marketing China Delphi study Market study Learning management systems Online wine tasting evaluation Sensorial marketing WSET certification, Sensorial marketing China, Market study, Sensorial marketing, China Delphi study Market study Learning management systems Online wine tasting evaluation Sensorial marketing WSET certification alcohol consumption in emerging markets, WSET certification alcohol consumption in emerging markets |
| Date: | 2024–08–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:hal:journl:hal-04670360 |
| By: | Xiaoxuan Zhang (University of Waikato); John Gibson (University of Waikato) |
| Abstract: | High-resolution gridded population estimates are increasingly used to support public health, disaster, and socio-economic research. These gridded data allow phenomena to be studied at a finer spatial scale than the usual survey or administrative data (spatialization) and with higher frequency than typical decadal census data allow (temporal interpolation). However, little is known about how accurately these gridded data follow actual changes in population. Therefore, we use China's census data for 2000, 2010, and 2020 to test predictive accuracy of four popular gridded population data products, conducting our tests at three spatial levels (county/district, prefectural city, and province). The gridded population data are accurate cross-sectional predictors at all three spatial levels, with less than five percent of variation unexplained. They far less accurately predict temporal changes in population, especially for disaggregated spatial units (counties and districts) where just one fifth of the variation in population changes is predicted by the gridded data. Predictive performance of gridded data for population changes has fallen substantially in the last decade. We illustrate how these inaccurate predictions could distort analyses that examine trends in spatial inequality. Overall, our results suggest that caution is required in using these gridded data products as proxies for the actual changes in local population. |
| Keywords: | gridded population datal; cross-sectional; time-series; Census; China |
| JEL: | R12 |
| Date: | 2024–09–17 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:wai:econwp:24/07 |
| By: | Guoying Deng; Xuyuan Zhang |
| Abstract: | This study examines the impact of offline store expansion by Lianjia, China's leading real estate brokerage, within the framework of platform-mediated consolidation. By analyzing micro-level transactions of second-hand houses from Lianjia in ten major Chinese cities from 2016 to 2022, this research investigates how the transaction patterns of traditional brokerages, characterized by the strategic clustering of offline stores, transition towards platform-mediated consolidation, thereby facilitating the development of an extensive franchise network. Utilizing a regression discontinuity design (RDD), this study quantifies the optimal influence radius of offline stores (410 meters) on housing transactions. this study empirically estimates the effects of real estate brokerage's offline store expansion and platform-mediated consolidation on transaction properties. The results indicate that this strategy significantly boosts revenues and attracts more people to housing tours. Additionally, the results suggest that neither the platform-mediated strategy nor offline expansion affects the transaction period, but offline store expansion can reduce the price gap between sellers and buyers. Furthermore, this study introduces a measure of network effect, revealing that Lianjia's offline stores exhibit a local clustering pattern with moderate network strength. The analysis of platform-mediated consolidation indicates a significantly positive effect on network strength. This study provides valuable insights into the synergy between offline store expansion and online platform development, elucidating future trajectories in the evolving real estate brokerage market and analogous sectors. |
| Date: | 2024–09 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2409.04326 |
| By: | Zhanli Li |
| Abstract: | This paper explores the relationship between ESG rating disagreement and total factor productivity (TFP) based on data from Chinese domestic ESG rating agencies and financial data of A-share listed companies in China from 2015 to 2022. On one hand, the empirical results show that ESG rating disagreement reduces corporate TFP, a conclusion that is validated through multiple robustness tests. The mechanism analysis reveals an interaction effect between green innovation and ESG rating disagreement. Specifically, in firms without ESG rating disagreement, green innovation promotes the improvement of TFP; however, in firms with disagreement, although ESG rating disagreement may drive green innovation, this does not lead to an increase in TFP. Furthermore, ESG rating disagreement lower corporate TFP by increasing financing constraints. The heterogeneity analysis indicates that this effect is more pronounced in non-state-owned, asset-intensive, and low-pollution enterprises. On the other hand, XGBoost regression demonstrates that ESG rating disagreement play a significant role in predicting TFP, with SHAP values showing that the main effects are more evident in firms with larger ESG rating disagreement. |
| Date: | 2024–08 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:arx:papers:2408.13895 |
| By: | Rubal Dua; Prateek Bansal; Jinghai Huo (King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center) |
| Abstract: | Since the seminal work of Berry, Levinsohn, and Pakes (1995), random coefficient logit (RCL) has become the workhorse model for estimating demand elasticities in markets with differentiated products using aggregated sales data. While the ability to represent flexible substitution patterns makes RCL a preferable model, its estimation is computationally challenging due to the numerical inversion of the demand function. The recently proposed inverse product differentiation logit (IPDL) addresses these computational challenges by directly specifying the inverse demand function and representing flexible substitution patterns through nonhierarchical product segmentation in multiple dimensions. Unlike the two-stage simulation-based estimation of RCL, IPDL requires the estimation of a traditional linear instrumental variable (IV) regression model. In theory, IPDL appears to be an attractive alternative to RCL, but its potential has not yet been explored in empirical studies. We present the first application of IPDL in understanding the demand for passenger cars in China using provincial-level sales data. Our results indicate that the elasticity estimates of IPDL and RCL are not significantly different, i.e., that IPDL can capture substitution patterns in a similar manner as can RCL. The estimation of IPDL takes less than a second on a regular computer (i.e., it is approximately 500 times faster than RCL). Overall, the flexibility and computational efficiency of IPDL makes it a workhorse model for demand estimation using market-level aggregated sales data. |
| Date: | 2023–12–26 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:prc:mpaper:ks--2023-mp05 |
| By: | Steven Brakman; Tristan Kohl; Charles van Marewijk; Charles van Marrewijk |
| Abstract: | The availability and composition of labor is fundamental for the structure of international trade. This points towards the importance of demographic transitions that affect trade through, for example, changing capital-labor ratios, urbanization dynamics, or changes in the composition of demand over the life cycle of individuals. Key in this respect is the so-called demographic dividend, which is the potential economic growth stemming from lower dependency ratios. We use the gravity model to link long-run changes of the demographic dividend to changes in the level of world trade for the 21st century. All the scenarios that we distinguish point towards the same conclusion: Compared to the current situation, North America and Europe will no longer be the center of global trade in 2100 due to their aging populations. In contrast, South Asia and Sub-Saharan Africa will experience a substantial increase in their share of world trade throughout the remainder of this century, while the impact of the demographic drag facing China will be most pronounced around 2060. |
| Keywords: | demographic transition, trade, income, gravity model |
| JEL: | F10 J11 O11 |
| Date: | 2024 |
| URL: | https://d.repec.org/n?u=RePEc:ces:ceswps:_11262 |