Abstract
As at 15 June 2015, a large transmission cluster of Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus (MERSCoV)was ongoing in South Korea. To examine the potential for such events, we estimated the level of heterogeneity in MERS-CoV transmission by analyzing data on cluster size distributions. We found substantial potential for superspreading; even though it is likely that R0 < 1 overall, our analysis indicates that cluster sizes of over 150 cases are not unexpected forMERS-CoV infection.
Publication types
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Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
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Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
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Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.
MeSH terms
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Cluster Analysis
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Coronavirus / isolation & purification
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Coronavirus / pathogenicity*
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Coronavirus Infections / epidemiology
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Coronavirus Infections / transmission*
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Coronavirus Infections / virology
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Disease Outbreaks
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Humans
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Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus / isolation & purification
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Middle East Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus / pathogenicity
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Republic of Korea / epidemiology
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Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome / epidemiology
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Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome / transmission*
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Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome / virology