… had been excluded from the analysis, this argument challenges the pessimistic conclusion
by Brüggelambert and Crüger on the forecasting superiority of the election stock market …

… This exercise reveals a sizable negative discontinuity in post-election stock market growth,
and a smaller (but still substantial) one in the post-election change in the value of the …

The 2004 US presidential election proved again how difficult it is to predict vote shares on
the basis of polls. Midday media exit polls suggested that Senator Kerry would become the …

The article is devoted to the topical issue of research of cyclical patterns in economy and their
practical use for forecasting the direction of financial markets. The aim of the work is to find …

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to provide a plausible explanation for the “sell in May”
anomaly observed in US stock markets. A heretofore unexplained strategy of selling stock in …

The impact of political general elections on the stock returns with control for time-varying
volatility of daily returns is examined. Results show stock prices fluctuate prior to and after the …

… We review election stock market evidence that suggests this does happen. Individual
traders appear biased and error-prone consistently, yet these markets prove quite efficient in …

This dissertation examines the effect of stock ownership on individuals' political behavior. I
analyzed not only individual-level data to examine the effect of stock ownership on their …

This thesis considers the behaviour and relationships between financial and prediction markets
around elections. We begin by reviewing the literature. There are many small studies of …