How MVA bested Mahayuti

Going into Lok Sabha elections, Mahayuti looked commanding in Maharashtra. BJP had consolidated its position in the state well before elections. Shiv Sena and NCP splits, with their breakaway factions joining BJP, strengthened its position. A number of high-profile defections to BJP, including Congress veteran and former CM Ashok Chavan, followed. Alongside the support of a few minor parties, these seemed to have sealed the deal. On the opposition side, Maha Vikas Aghadi appeared in disarray. Initially, there was little coordination between its three principal allies. And yet, MVA has beaten Mahayuti. How did this happen? And what are the consequences? Opposition unity | Much of the credit goes to NCP’s veteran leader Sharad Pawar. A tireless campaigner, he secured the support of major Left parties and other minor political outfits to consolidate opposition votes.Anxieties about BJP assaults on the Constitution, a perceived threat to reservations and ideas about a growing BJP electoral dictatorship gained ground. After picking up these issues from civil society initiatives, MVA ran with them, putting BJP on the defensive. Onion woes | Drought that looms perennially over large parts of the state made for a groundswell of agrarian resentment. The rising costs of and falling profits from agriculture have also put farmers under enormous strain. Maharashtra is the biggest producer of onions in the country; indeed the crop is at the heart of the state’s rural economy. So, the state was hit hard by GOI’s ban on onion export. Villages across the onion belt in the north of the state even barred candidates’ entry, early in the campaign. Even central govt schemes, introduced to alleviate long-standing agricultural distress, were viewed as inadequate. High GST on agricultural implements and consumables was seen as further proof of BJP’s ignorance about the countryside and indifference to agriculture.Maratha protests | Agrarian distress stoked demands for Maratha reservations. The movement’s supporters want Marathas to be included among OBCs, who in turn vehemently oppose the initiative. Every party has voiced support for the Maratha demand. But BJP in particular has been perceived as paying it mere lip service, while in fact trying to obstruct the initiative to safeguard the interests of its OBC support base. BJP’s lame bag | Early this year, BJP delivered on its two key promises: CAA and Ram Mandir in Ayodhya. The temple inauguration saw a massive mobilisation of volunteers, who extended invitations to the ceremony to millions. But the Ayodhya euphoria quickly died down, perhaps because it came too early to affect voter choices. As for CAA, despite BJP trying to trumpet its achievement, most voters never came to think of it as a major issue. Nor did the promise of UCC draw in many votes.The ‘real’ NCP | Both the Shiv Sena and NCP splits saw the breakaway factions winning the support of a majority of the state’s legislators. As a result, EC recognised the breakaway factions as the original parties and allotted them the respective party symbols. This led observers to write off both Uddhav Thackeray and Sharad Pawar. When the two leaders made betrayal a campaign issue, it garnered a considerable amount of popular support. Both asserted that the question of which faction was ‘the real one’ was ultimately up to voters. Election results, however, show that while the Sharad Pawar-led NCP proved its strength by winning 8 seats, rendering the Ajit Pawar-led breakaway faction nugatory, with but a single seat, the results are more mixed for Sena. Its breakaway faction, led by the present CM, Eknath Shinde, won 7 seats, only 2 less than Thackeray’s Sena. Shinde’s success in two largely urban constituencies adjoining Mumbai, Thane and Kalyan, was not surprising since the region has been his stronghold. The surprise lay in Shinde holding his own in other regions, where he roped in many committed Sena voters and activists. All this leaves the question of which Sena is ‘real’ wide open. Congress revival | The party’s revival is the real surprise. Its third successive defeat may well have rendered the party irrelevant. So its leaders campaigned relentlessly, systematically. Fresh faces, albeit some from political dynasties, coupled with resentment against BJP and the consolidation of minority votes, helped the party revive its fortunes, especially in the Vidarbha and North Maharashtra regions.VBA collapse | Vanchit Bahujan Aghadi led by Prakash Ambedkar, Babasaheb’s grandson, did well in 2019, helping to defeat Congress and leading many to believe that it could emerge as a major political alternative in the state. But this year, refusing to ally with MVA, it has tumbled to a near-collapse, with Ambedkar himself beaten in his constituency. VBA certainly undercut Congress votes, but its own failure marks the end of any independent Dalit politics in the state for the foreseeable future. This year’s opposition unity echoes the 1998 election. BJP and Shiv Sena won in 1996, but by 1998 Pawar stitched together a broad alliance of all other political parties to stop the saffron wave. A quarter of a century on, he has repeated that trick.The writer teaches Political Science at People’s College, Nanded, Maharashtra.