Making it right might also help the GNP embrace it.
(Note: I have made a small change in the post due to some information on the “Rhee In-jae law” presented in the comments section.)
As folks may know by now, I am not a big fan of Roh Moo-hyun. However, he has been known to talk sense from time to time. His proposal for changing the terms of office for the presidency is one of those incidences.
In case you haven’t heard about it before, Roh would like to replace the current single five-year term with a four-year term and a chance to be reelected to a second four-year term (that is the system the USA currently uses). The president was limited to a single five-year term in the 1987 constitution in order to prevent a president from becoming a virtual dictator by rigging his reelections.
Members of the National Assembly are elected to four-year terms, which means that presidential and legislative elections are held at irregular intervals relative to each other. For example, the last National Assembly race was held 17 months after a presidential election and the next one will be only 5 months after a presidential election.
Things have not gone well for Roh’s proposal. Under Article 130 of the Constitution, he needs a two-thirds majority in the National Assembly to put his proposal up for a national vote. The only party that supports his idea (Uri) has well under half of the assembly’s seats. So, in order for his proposal to pass, he needs the support of the Grand National Party.
Alas, that support has not been forthcoming for a couple of reasons. First, the GNP habitually dismisses any proposal from Roh. Second, many in the GNP see it as an attempt to split the party ahead of the presidential vote this December.
Almost everyone who watches Korean politics believes that the GNP candidate will have the inside track on the presidency. The problem is that the top two candidates in all the polls (Lee Myung-bak and Park Geun-hye) are both from the GNP. With the current splintering of the left, they will probably be poll leaders all the way through their party primaries currently scheduled for June. That being the case, whomever loses is projected to lose the primary will be tempted to leave the party and try his or her hand in the general election (Joe Lieberman’s victory in last year’s Connecticut Senate race shows it can be done successfully.).
If Roh’s proposed change effects the next presidential term, it would give the GNP primary loser even more incentive to split from the party since he or she would have to wait eight years instead of five for his or her next shot at the presidency (assuming that their would not be a serious primary challenge to a sitting president). Conversely, the left would have one year less of political exile before they would get another shot at the Blue House.
So, it is natural for the GNP to declare Roh’s proposed amendment dead on arrival.
Faced with that reality, Roh has decided to change tactics. Read More »
