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EMC (EMC) shares at six-year high based on takeover speculation

EMC Corp. (NYSE: EMC), the data storage company that powers much of the digital storage needs for large companies and internet providers, has seen its shares hit a six-year high not because of its own merits, but because it owns so much of software virtualization company VMWare, Inc. (NYSE: VMW).

This sounds an awful lot like the LBO situation Seagate Technology (NYSE: STX) found itself in six years ago when the disk drive maker owned a third of the software company Veritas -- and that stake alone was worth double what Seagate itself was worth. If you're a billionaire, opportunities like that present handsome profit potential.

An analyst at Pacific Crest Securities Inc. this week said that EMC may be a takeover target soon due to its majority stake in VMWare, whose shares have tripled since going public less than two months ago. Perhaps IBM, Inc. (NYSE: IBM) or Hewlett-Packard Corp. (NYSE: HPQ) would be interested?

VMWare would be very attractive to a n operating software company due to the nature of the software products it markets, and there are probably more than a few companies that would like to get their hands on its product base. The last time EMC shares were this high was back in July 2001 when shares peaked at over $22.57 each. Right now, shares in VMWare stand at over $107 each.

What other former CEOs besides Carly Fiorina are joining Fox?

When word of Carly Fiorina's hiring by the yet-to-be-launched Fox Business Network got out, you can bet that ousted CEOs started ringing up News Corp (NYSE: NWS) Chief Executive Rupert Murdoch.

Robert Nardelli is busy now at Chrysler LLC., but Gary Forsee has recently left Sprint Nextel Corp. (NYSE: S) to pursue other career opportunities as has former Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) CEO Kevin Rollins. Maybe former Mattel Inc. (NYSE: MAT) Chief Executive Jill Eckert or former Motorola Inc. (NASDAQ: MOT) head Chris Galvin wants to be a talking head.

The former Hewlett-Packard Co. (NASDAQ: HPQ) chief executive will no doubt be a lively television commentator. It's too bad that Bernie Ebbers, John Rigas, Dennis Kozlowski and Jeffrey Skilling are presently incarcerated. They were always good for a lively quote.

If anyone has any other suggestions for former corporate honchos that Fox should hire, let me know and I'll pass on your suggestions to Fox. Of course, they'll be ignored.

Former Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) CEO Carly Fiorina joins Fox Business Channel

Carly Fiorina, former head of Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ), will be joining the new Fox Business Channel (still in pre-launch) as a contributor. Apparently, Rupert Murdoch's new business venture wants to take some glitz from competitor CNBC, as Fiorina has that in ample supply after gracing magazine covers for six years while at the helm of HP.

It's not that Fiorina did not know how to run a business (far from it), but the needs of a dynamic industry finally caught up with her in 2005 when HP's board ousted her in favor of current CEO and Chairman Mark Hurd. Hurd's done great things in his tenure with HP so far, as his operational finesse and cost control methodology apparently has set HP back on track from quarter after quarter of missteps under Fiorina's leadership. Many believe Fiorina's contribution to Hurd's current success is her lasting legacy at HP. That's fine, as there is probably some truth to that.

Fiorina, probably the most recognized female CEO ever, was more of a showperson than a hard-nosed business executive from many accounts -- something that ended up costing her a job. So when Fox News says that "Carly Fiorina is one of the foremost business leaders of our time," I have to disagree. There are multiple examples of more efficient and successful leaders, even in the last decade. Howard Schultz, Steve Jobs and Jack Welch (to a point, heh) are just a few.

When the Fox Business Channel launches, it will most likely be about glitz and glamour. The loudmouths the network already has in place on the Fox News Channel easily make this a verifiable premonition. We'll wait to see what substance is put forth before making further assessments. But, for someone who has a flair for the dramatic, perhaps Fox is Fiorina's rightful place.

Meet the Game Changers: Companies like Apple (AAPL) and Caterpillar (CAT) that redefine themselves and the field

Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhoneI had the pleasure of writing a series this spring on the Top 25 Stocks for the NEXT 25 years. I researched over 300 companies to come up with the list of what I thought were the best 25 stocks to own for the next 25 years. But something was missing that I now want to address in a new series.

The very nature of picking 25 stocks which hopefully would perform magnificently for 25 years excluded many great companies that were already executing well but could not be included because of their high current market capitalization. Some examples were "game changing" companies like Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL). Back in May, Apple had a market capitalization of about $90 billion. But I couldn't include it in my top 25 unless I expected Apple's market cap to reach several trillion dollars. I love Apple, but that's probably not in the cards. By the way, Apple today is worth $130 billion.

Another example of a game-changing company is McDonald's (NYSE: MCD). This once staid, stuck-in-the-mayonnaise company has re-invigorated itself in the past couple of years and has seen its market value more than double to $66 billion. I'd also throw in that camp Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT), which since January 2004 has seen its own market capitalization double to $51 billion. Caterpillar changed and fortified its business model starting back in late 2003. By the way, Apple,Caterpillar and McDonald's are still game changers---meaning the shares are a buy.

Continue reading Meet the Game Changers: Companies like Apple (AAPL) and Caterpillar (CAT) that redefine themselves and the field

Research In Motion (RIMM): Wrath of values

Research in Motion (NASDAQ:RIMM) logoResearch-in-Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) has been a beast of a tech stock. But shares have run up so much and the valuations have risen so much that the stock NEEDS a breather. Shares are down roughly 3% at $95.50 today, after reaching over $100+ highs last week. Currently, RIM has a market cap north of $50 billion, its trailing P/E ratio is over 70, and it trades at roughly 42 times Feb-2008 fiscal earnings.

Just yesterday RIM received a downgrade from RBC Capital Markets' Mike Abramsky saying the current valuations and recent monster performance will make it hard for the stock to continue rising from here. His downgrade was from TOP PICK down to Outperform, which still isn't exactly a death sentence. Shares were down over 1% yesterday early on, but managed to close up $0.11 at $98.66 in such a strong market.

On Friday I noted how Research in Motion was one of the ten or so major "Windows Dressing" beneficiaries where fund managers and investment advisors want to show the stock in their holdings at the end of a quarter. These performed unbelievably well and RIM along with them, showing a 50% quarterly gain, to the point you'd never know we were all worried in August.

Continue reading Research In Motion (RIMM): Wrath of values

Dow 15,000 -- are the pieces in place?

Back on July 20, I wrote about the Dow Jones Industrial Average having a good chance of hitting 15,000 by year's end. I was early -- really early. The Dow had just hit 14,000 on July 19, and we went through two and half months of Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt, otherwise known as FUD. FUD took the Dow and similar indices down a painful and laborious 7-8%. The credit market crisis shook the markets globally until the European Central Bank and the U.S. Federal Reserve intervened with liquidity and the lowering of key interest rates. Since those actions were taken, the markets have begun a measured, but uneven recovery. Where do we go from here?

Markets react to news and events quickly and decisively. When the mortgage markets could not secure solid underwriting commitments, the dominoes began to fall. The financial stocks took the nastiest hits as the balance sheets were certain to absorb multi-billion dollar hits. Countrywide Financial (NASDAQ: CFC), the nation's largest issuer of mortgages, needed to tap credit lines and drew Bank of America's (NYSE: BAC) commitment of $2 billion in a preferred stock purchase. The credit market today is steadier, although still not on solid footing. The major brokerage firms announced their collective August 31 quarter-end results, and they were not shocking since expectations were already lowered. But they were not the disasters as some expected.

Continue reading Dow 15,000 -- are the pieces in place?

Xerox (XRX) battles Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) in printer market

It's amazing how cheap printers are these days. I have a Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) printer that prints in color and also scans and copies like a champ. And it cost less than $100 at Target. The only problem with cheap machines like this is that they start getting expensive when it's time to refill the ink. Of course, this is how companies like HP make their money: cheap hardware, expensive maintenance.

This strategy has invited competitors to take a different approach. Earlier this year, Eastman Kodak Co. (NYSE: EK) unveiled new printers that cost a bit more upfront but use much cheaper ink. Today, Xerox Corporation (NYSE: XRX) announced that it will sell a new printer that costs more than a laser printer but produces color copies for the same cost as black and white. If you've ever had to buy new color ink cartridges, you know that this is a big improvement.

The new machine uses Xerox's solid-ink technology that reduces per page costs by as much as 80%, according to today's New York Times. Kodak has found that people print more when they know that pages, especially color pages, are cheaper. Some analysts are skeptical that companies are willing to abandon HP for cheaper color copies, and that HP's 40% market share is safe. But a test program for the new Xerox machine at a real estate company that prints lots of color brochures found that annual copying and printing costs were reduced from $1 million to $200,000. I think a lot of companies will have trouble saying no to savings like that.

Will Dell's (DELL) China strategy boost its bottom line?

The Wall Street Journal [subscription required] reports that Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) intends to sell desktops and notebooks in China through Chinese retailer, Gome Group, whose 1,000 stores in 168 Chinese cities will help Dell expand its presence in the world's second-largest PC market by shipments.

Dell, which stumbled in this decade by missing a market shift away from corporate -- which liked its direct selling strategy -- and towards individual PC purchases, is trying to regain its lead with the return of its founder Michael Dell to the CEO slot. But in China, Dell is number four behind Lenovo Group Ltd and Hewlett Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ) -- deriving $6.6 billion of its revenues, 12% of its 2006 total, from sales in Asia Pacific and Japan.

Dell's deal with Gome Group will give it a chance to sell to individual Chinese buyers, who like to try out a PC in a store before buying it. And with revenues growing at 25%, the Chinese market is certainly big and getting bigger. But Dell did not say how much of each PC sales dollar it will share with Gome Group. If Dell matched HP's 4.8% PC net profit margin, it could add $48 million to its bottom line for every $1 billion of additional revenue through Gomes.

That's nothing to sneeze at, but it represents a mere 1.7% of Dell's most recent 12-months net income of $2.8 billion in net income.

Peter Cohan is president of Peter S. Cohan & Associates,. He also teaches management at Babson College and edits The Cohan Letter. He has has no financial interest in Dell, Lenovo, or Hewlett Packard.

Before the bell: AAPL, SBUX, DELL, BCS, GOOG ...

Before the bell: Stocks to open higher, but Street is cautious

Starting Oct 2, Starbucks Corp. (NASDAQ: SBUX) plans to give away 50 million free digital songs to customers in all of its domestic coffee houses until Nov. 7. The giveaway intends to promote a new wireless Apple's (NASDAQ: AAPL) iTunes music service that's about to debut in select markets. At 7:35 a.m., AAPL shares were up 1.29% in premarket trading.

Staying in online music, Amazon.com (NASDAQ: AMZN) today launched its largest-ever single-artist music store for Bruce Springsteen.

Dell Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) today announced a deal to launch a retail presence in China by selling computers through the country's biggest chain of electronics stores, Gome Group. The deal could help it compete better with Hewlett-Packard (NYSE: HPQ) in that market. DELL stock is up nearly 0.6% in premarket action.

According to reports, General Electric (NYSE: GE) and American International Group (NYSE: AIG) have offered effectively zero to Barclays (NYSE: BCS) for the FirstPlus subprime consumer loan unit. BCS shares are down 1% in premarket action. Barclays was also downgraded to Underperform from Peer Perform at Bear Sterns.

European Union regulators will review Google's (NASDAQ: GOOG) $3.1 billion takeover bid for online ad tracker DoubleClick. The DoubleClick deal has prompted complaints from rivals Yahoo! (NASDAQ: YHOO) and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) as well as from data privacy advocates.

Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) was cleared by the European Commission to market Celsentri, a drug designed for adult patients who have been infected only with and treated for CCR5-tropic HIV-1 virus detectable.

Red Hat Inc. (NYSE: RHT) was downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Credit Suisse. Shares are down 1.37% in premarket trading (7:02 a.m.).

Flash: Dell cuts deal with largest Chinese electronics chain

According to The Wall Street Journal (subscription required), Dell (NASDAQ: DELL) has set up a partnership with Gome, the largest electronics retailer in China.

Gome has 1,000 stores in 168 cities. Dell has had only modest market share in China, behind HP (NYSE: HPQ), Leveno, and Acer. This is primarily due to its lace of retail distribution.

The WSJ adds "China's PC market is expected to sustain annual growth of 25% in the coming three to five years, according to IDC's estimates."

Douglas A. McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.

Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) and AOL sign browser deal

Hewlett Packard NYSE:HPQ logoHewlett-Packard Company (NYSE: HPQ) has inked a deal with Time Warner Inc.'s (NYSE: TWX) AOL unit to install AOL's web browser start page, toolbar and search on HP personal computers sold worldwide. This may not sound like a big deal, but it is, since the vast majority of computer users never change the default start pages that load when their Internet Explorer web browser starts up. Having AOL's search engine, which is powered by Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG), as the default is a biggie as well. HP, after all, sells more desktop and laptop computers than any company on the planet at this time.

AOL will use its custom "myAOL" homepage as the default website on all HP PCs, which will encourage new HP owners to use AOL's services like email, news, finance and weather. While some computer users complain of unwanted "bloatware" that ships on new PCs, the practice of providing new PC owners with default relationships to service providers such as AOL is likely to continue.

Now, what is unanswered here is how this will affect HP's existing relationship with internet portal Yahoo, Inc. (NASDAQ: YHOO) which has been in place for almost one year. Since HP did not make a single reference to this relationship, one must surmise that HP is dumping Yahoo! completely from its systems and replacing Yahoo!'s services with AOL's services. If that is the case, Yahoo! just earned a huge black eye and AOL came out very rosy. With HP competitor Dell, Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) using Google services as the default on its PCs, this leaves Yahoo! in a tough position without a top-tier PC partner.

Fed-related stock plays remain a gamble

jim cramerToday's important stories from TheStreet.com: Cramer's Advice for the Fed Might Surprise You, Top 10 Value Stocks With Increasing Dividends

You know you are in trouble when fans at the big game want to talk about the Federal Reserve's meeting. Well, then again, if you are an Eagles or Giants fan, that's pretty much all that's worth talking about.

The impact, though, is simply too outsized to be trusted. The setup is too hard. The decision is too un-gameable. I haven't liked this setup since we started rallying last week, and I liked it less when we moved up Monday morning.

We have been lucky, ever since the cut in the discount window rate, to live in a world where you might wake up and find that the Fed was taking action. The mystery has benefited every group in one way or another, from the homebuilders to the oil companies.

Enough people have been buying Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) and Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) , or Barrick Gold (NYSE: ABX) and Procter & Gamble (NYSE: PG) to make the last few weeks a pretty good time.

Continue reading Fed-related stock plays remain a gamble

Microsoft (MSFT) and the laptop PC wave

It's amazing how two decades after it became popular for home and business use, the personal computer continues to rack up double-digit sales growth every year. Some would say that the internet has been responsible for much of that growth, along with PC games and the like. But many of us are doing the same things with PCs these days that we were seven or eight years ago. So, why are PC sales still going strong?

One reason is that emerging markets are embracing PC technology which is creating ultra-cheap commodity-type pricing. Additionally, laptop PCs sales are growing so fast that it seems that everyone is trading in those home and business desktop computers for the portable laptop with built-in high-speed wireless internet capability. In fact, laptop PCs were reported to grow by over 40% in the second quarter of this year from the 2006 period.

That's simply amazing for a technology that is so old. But age doesn't matter: five-pound computers are all the rage and desktop PCs, confined to a study or bedroom, are being replaced by go-anywhere, powerful laptop systems. Dell, Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) knows this all too well, as its failure to have consumer-friendly laptops in the retail channel in the last 18 months has largely been responsible for it falling further behind Hewlett-Packard Corp. (NYSE: HPQ) as the world's largest PC maker. 2007 growth figures for the PC market are expected at 12.6% from 2006. Who says the PC is dead? Consumers and businesses vehemently disagree.

Continue reading Microsoft (MSFT) and the laptop PC wave

Lenovo to challenge Dell (DELL) and Hewlett-Packard (HPQ) with U.S. laptops

As Doug signaled a few months ago, Hewlett-Packard Co. (NYSE: HPQ) and Dell, Inc. (NASDAQ: DELL) may soon be facing a new threat in the growing laptop computer market in the U.S. -- Lenovo Group. The Chinese computer manufacturer which purchase IBM's PC division years ago will be re-entering the U.S. laptop market by targeting the consumer instead of the business user.

So far, Lenovo has pushed its laptop PC products to pro-sumers and business customers in the U.S., leaving consumer sales to HP, Dell, Acer and others on the retail shelf. But, with consumer PC spending not outstripping business purchases and with laptop systems more popular than desktop systems, Lenovo apparently did not want to miss that gravy train opportunity. In fact, it's estimated that the consumer market for PCs is growing three times as fast as corporate sales. Yowza.

Lenovo also wants to enter Russia and Europe in a much larger way, and there have been rumors of the company buying European PC company Packard Bell to instantly gain a foothold on that continent. Lenovo's entry into the U.S. consumer laptop market will begin at Office Depot and Circuit City locations according to the company, and it will be interesting to see if the company -- actually based in North Carolina -- will use the "IBM" brand name for this new consumer marketing. Sure, IBM means a whole lot more to business customers than everyday consumers, but with the name available to Lenovo until 2010, perhaps this is the right time to use it in front of a new audience?

Cramer: Intel (INTC) to gain from high PC demand

Intel logoCNBC's Jim Cramer still loving tech, says that component companies like Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) are thriving thanks to strong demand for PCs, led by Hewlett-Packard's (NYSE: HPQ) strong presence. If you are inclined to agree that Intel has a bright near-term future, then it could be a good time to get into a bullish hedged trade on INTC.

After hitting a one-year high of $26.52 in July, the stock has been quickly down and then back up near previous highs over the past six weeks. INTC opened at $25.60 and has hit a low of $25.26 and a high of $25.42 so far. As of 11:05, INTC is trading at $25.43, up $0.08 (0.3%). The chart for INTC looks bullish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a very positive 5 STARS (out of 5) strong buy rating.

If you agree with Cramer, then for a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a January bull-put credit spread below the $20 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 5.2% return in just five months as long as INTC is above $20 at January expiration. Intel would have to fall by more than 21% before we would start to lose money.

INTC hasn't been below $20 since April and has shown support around $23 recently. This trade could be risky if the tech sector gets caught up in the economic slowdown, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by the recent support the stock formed between $21 and $24 over the last 5 months, plus its 200 day moving average, which is currently at $22 and rising.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.

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Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-109.0113,969.68
NASDAQ-46.342,765.27
S&P; 500-12.401,550.07

Last updated: October 11, 2007: 03:24 PM

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