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Samsung profits slack as product margins evaporate

Samsung Electronics (LSE: SMSN) is a big name in the consumer electronics field these days. Personally, I use a Samsung cellphone, color laser printer, LCD computer monitor and more. In many cases, Samsung products have entered my home due to good pricing, stylish quality and excellent craftsmanship. Those amenities are apparently not enough to keep large profits flowing into South Korea's largest company (by revenue).

Samsung continues to be the world's largest seller of flat-panel screens (computer monitors and flat-panel televisions) and is a staple in the cellphone world, serving virtually every global market that exists along with almost every wireless carrier in established wireless markets. But, even with that, the company's share price is down 10% this year, and the company is expected to report its fourth straight quarter of declining profit. What's happened?

Margins have plummeted in many areas where it leads, such as flat-panel technology and computer components (Samsung makes more computer RAM memory than any other company). The company has been slow to create market-leading awareness in higher-margin businesses (like color laser printers), and its recent quarterly results show this. Are customers increasingly being more satisfied with Samsung's products, thereby waiting on upgrading and considering price as the main factor when they do? Perhaps.

Consumers in emerging markets have these same concerns as well (especially price), so where are all these new high-margin product segments at, then? That's the magic 8-ball question. I'll say this: I've owned a high-end Samsung cellphone since January of this year and don't plan on upgrading it for a long time. Why? Well, it works great and has every conceivable feature I could ever need in a cellphone. Samsung doesn't want to hear that, though. In other words, it may be making many products so good that customers have a stagnating need to buy the latest and greatest.

Blinkx attaches a cash register to online videos

This week, we've seen quite a bit of buzz on monetizing online video. For example, Google, Inc. (Nasdaq: GOOG) announced that it has connected its AdSense system to YouTube videos (as I noted in a recent BloggingStocks.com post, it's pretty straightforward).

Well, another top video operator – blinkx – is also jumping into the fray. Basically, the company has launched a new system (called AdHoc) that provides a super-easy approach for converting videos to cash from your own site.

"A key difference is that you can embed videos from many sites," said Blinkx's cofounder and CTO, Suranga Chandratillake. "The sites include YouTube, MySpace and so. We split the revenues with Web publishers."

I tried it out – and it was a very smooth process (only requires working with two screens). What's more, the payment requires an email for a PayPal payment.

I also like the fact that Blinkx has a huge amount of diverse video content, which should help niche sites.

Click here to see an example of the video.

Seagate (STX) aims to drive emerging hybrid hard drive market

Seagate Technology (NYSE: STX) has begun shipping the first of its hybrid hard drives for notebook computers and smaller computing devices needing high-performance storage at reasonable cost. Hard drives are inside almost every desktop and laptop PC these days, and although they have advanced technologically with processor speeds and other performance metrics, they are still the performance bottlenecks in almost every computer. Why? At the root, hard drives are still where they were decades ago -- reading and writing data from spinning magnetic platters. Many tricks have upped performance since 2001 or so, but hard drives still look to be aging for the computing needs which always require more performance year after year.

Now, for pure storage needs, like for iPods or TiVo boxes, hard drives are fine. As laptop computers replace desktops, more performance is becoming crucial to these systems. As a result, the hybrid hard drive was born. Newer units from Seagate contain 256 Megabytes of RAM (solid-state storage) to augment those spinning magnetic platters. Here's the only wrinkle: there is a cost premium to that. Will consumers accept that? Highly doubtful, and so we have a conundrum.

Seagate's newer hybrid hard drive products may make their way to higher-end laptop computers soon, and the early adopter consumer and technologically minded will pay the expected 30% premium just to get the added performance (well, hopefully added performance). After a while, volume and economics will drive that premium down to where there is none. If Seagate really wants to become the premier supplier of new-generation hybrid drives above where it already sits with existing market share, that premium needs to come down to 10% to 15% at the most. That may crimp margin a little, but competitive laurels won't ever rest when it comes to the hard drive industry.

Serious Money: Google (GOOG) $2,000? No way, it's too high now!

GoogleWe are all reading story after story about this relatively new company called Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG), which now has a valuation exceeding $145 billion after closing today around $625, adding almost $10 from yesterday's all-time high. In the past year, I probably have done at least 20 stories myself, and the public fascination continues.

Google has very quickly built an empire that even the mighty Microsoft Corp.(NASDAQ: MSFT) is losing sleep over. Microsoft Chairman Steve Ballmer is tired of having to field questions about Google at what are supposed to be Microsoft meetings. However, despite all the good news, I think things are getting a tad pricey right now. But you still hear numbers literally being thrown into the media current by silly guys in need of attention (Henry Blodget) who have long been considered passé, most recently to the tune of Google achieving a $2,000 price tag. Of course, no time frame was associated with this prediction, so it is pretty much worthless gossip.

If Google was $2,000 per share, it would have a capitalization of $470 billion. For comparison, General Electric (NYSE: GE) is valued at $430 billion, and Exxon Mobil (NYSE: XOM) is valued at $516 billion, so it would be jockeying for position as the largest company in the world.

As it stands today, you could trade Google for all of Berkshire Hathaway (NYSE: BRK.A) -- valued at $135 billion -- and have money left over to buy all $9.8 billion worth of Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ: ISRG), still leaving a few bucks for a lifetime of fine dining. This comes to mind because this is what I have actually done instead. The combination has destroyed Google in terms of stock appreciation. Nevertheless I am gaining appreciation for Google in many ways. I think the company has done, and is doing, many smart things. Many of its adventures have not borne fruit yet, but it has carved out a HUGE swath of the internet that will not be rivaled anytime soon, and it is still growing. Does this growth and these investments (expenditures) justify the price today? The answer to that question in my opinion is no, not today. I think Google will pull back again after its October 18th earnings report.

Continue reading Serious Money: Google (GOOG) $2,000? No way, it's too high now!

BloggingStocks Interview: Pringo looks at the hyper-activity in microblogging

This week, Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) stirred things up when it announced that it purchased Jaiku, which allows for microblogging and other shared communications on mobile devices.

What's going on here?

I had a chance to interview Gary Hall, who is the president of Pringo Networks, a player in the space.

Continue reading BloggingStocks Interview: Pringo looks at the hyper-activity in microblogging

ScanSource (SCSC): Gear for high-tech check-outs

Passing through a store check-out line is no longer a simple matter of handing the clerk some cash and waiting for your change. Nowadays, the process involves an array of technical devices for identification, scanning, printing, data transmission and security evaluation. There is a Greenville, South Carolina firm that knows all the equipment and distributes systems to some 18,000 resellers.

ScanSource (NASDAQ: SCSC) is a distributor of specialty technical products for automatic identification/data capture, point of sale, and communications applications. It provides such devices as bar code scanners, receipt/label printers, PC-based terminals, pole displays, call center equipment and electronic security products. The firm sells equipment from such manufacturers as Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO), IBM (NYSE: IBM) and Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT).

ScanSource got the Street's attention earlier in the week, when it guided fiscal Q1 revenues to $546-$554 million. That range was up from prior guidance of $525-$545 million and topped the consensus Street estimate of $535.5 million. SCSC shares popped on the news and have begun defining a bullish "flag" consolidation pattern. Stocks frequently exit flags moving in the same direction they were traveling when they entered them. In this case, that would be to the upside.

Brokers recommend the issue with one "strong buy," one "buy," four "holds" and one "sell." Analysts see a 17% average annual growth rate, through the next five years. The SCSC P/E ratio (19.78), PEG ratio (1.13), Price to Sales ratio (0.42), Price to Book ratio (2.56), Sales Growth rate (21.47%) and Revenue per Employee ($2.01M) compare favorably with industry, sector and S&P 500 averages. Institutions hold about 95% of the outstanding shares. The stock is one of those used to calculate the S&P 600 SmallCap Index. Over the past 52 weeks, it has traded between $25.22 and $34.14. A stop-loss of $27.75 looks good here. Note that the company is expected to report Q1 results on October 25, after the close.

Larry Schutts is a contributing editor for Theflyonthewall.com and the Vice-President of Stockwinners.com.

Akamai Technologies (AKAM) soars on Buy rating, new director

AKAM logoAkamai Technologies Inc. (Nasdaq: AKAM) shares are trading higher today after AmTech Research initiated coverage on AKAM with a buy rating. Also today, AKAM named Jill A. Greenthal, an adviser at Blackstone Group (NYSE: BX) to its board of directors. If you think that the company won't fall by too much in the coming months, then now could be a good time to look at a bullish hedged trade on AKAM.

After hitting a one-year high of $59.69 in February, the stock dropped to a 52-week low of $27.75 in September. AKAM opened this morning at $36.11. So far today the stock has hit a low of $36.09 and a high of $37.94. As of 12:52, AKAM is trading at $37.30, up $1.68 (4.7%). The chart for AKAM looks bullish but improving, while S&P gives the stock a negative 2 STARS (out of 5) sell rating.

For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a January bull-put credit spread below the $25 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. This particular trade, will make a 4.2% return in just 3 months as long as AKAM is above $25 at January expiration. Akamai would have to fall by more than 33% before we would start to lose money.

AKAM hasn't been below $25 at all in the past year and has shown support around $31 recently. This trade could be risky if the company's earnings (due out on 10/24) disappoint, but even if that happens, this position could be protected by strong support between $29 and $31, where AKAM has held firm for the past two months.

Brent Archer is an options analyst and writer at Investors Observer.
DISCLOSURE: At publication time, Brent neither owns nor controls positions in AKAM.

$7 billion in cost savings if Sirius (SIRI) and XM (XMSR) merger goes through ... if

Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. (NASDAQ: SIRI) and XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. (NASDAQ: XMSR) surged yesterday after Citigroup analyst Eileen Furukawa estimated that the proposed multibillion-dollar merger has a greater than 60% chance to succeed. The analyst believes regulators have shifted in favor of the merger and that the market, currently giving the deal only a 24% chance of passing regulatory muster, is underestimating the chances and is too bearish. Furukawa has upped XM's price target to $19.50 from $15.

Still, if the merger goes through, Furukawa estimates it could produce up to $7.2 billion in cost savings and further, this estimate might be conservative as it does not include capex savings. In addition, the merged company could drive higher ad revenues and move away from the subscriber-based model into the ad-revenue one that seems to be where many believe the money is, especially as the early subscriber growth both companies experienced has cooled.

If the merger indeed succeeds and the cost savings are achieved, there may be a chance the combined company could rediscover the earlier growth it once witnessed. As Dana Cimilluca of the WSJ Deal Journal notes, this cost savings is bigger than XM's market cap of $4.67 billion, so no wonder both companies and their shareholders pushed the merger forward so passionately. They know what might happen if the merger doesn't go through.

One last comment on this. Contrary to Furukawa, Jonathan Jacoby of Banc of America Securities thinks that the stocks' recent prices actually imply that investors think there is an 85% chance of the merger succeeding. I'm not sure what could explain such a big difference in the two opinions, but I do know what mine has been all along and why I'm in trouble with many satellite fans. I do believe these to be too risky for their potential upside and I'm staying out.

Tuesday, SIRI shares closed up 3.77% to $3.5799 and XMSR shares up 6.87% to $15.24. Today, XM shares are cooling a bit, down over 1% to $15.08, while Sirius shares are continuing to climb, up more than 3% to $3.69 by midday.

AT&T (T) to pay $2.5 billion for airwaves as Google (GOOG) grimaces

AT&T (NYSE: T) logoAT&T, Inc. (NYSE: T) will buy about $2.5 billion in wireless airwaves from the privately held Aloha Partners, according to the nation's largest wireless carrier. The additional airwaves will give AT&T 72 of the top 100 markets for wireless service in the 700 Megahertz radio spectrum, with a potential of serving 196 million customers in 281 markets.

This is probably an effort to head off pressure from Google, Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG), which has expressed pretty strong interest in the same radio spectrum as part of its plan to create a new way of providing wireless services to customers. The idea is to allow customers to buy any device designed for that radio spectrum and use it on any carrier that wishes to provide service. Right now, U.S. wireless carriers have a death grip on the wireless handset market and frequently lock customers into their own networks, shoddy phones and all.

Aloha was planning on rolling out a mobile television service using those airwaves and was in testing in the Las Vegas area, but apparently the AT&T offer was too tasty. What is unknown now is if AT&T will participate in the upcoming 700 Megahertz airwave auction that Google wants to dominate (if certain conditions are met).

Continue reading AT&T (T) to pay $2.5 billion for airwaves as Google (GOOG) grimaces

Apple (AAPL) iPods required equipment in some classrooms

Apple, Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) has a cultural phenomenon on its hands with the iPod -- and everyone knows this. From business cubicles to classrooms to dance studios, there are millions of iPods in use every day throughout the world. In some universities, the music players are issued to students so that recorded lectures and other spoken-word information can be taken away by students to use when and where they want it.

In elementary and middle schools in the U.S., though, many districts ban the device. It can cut into instruction time and can be seen as a distraction more than anything. Unfortunately, grades two through eight are still about lugging five-pound books all over the place along with dozens of papers and pencils. I say that if the U.S. truly wants to be at the forefront of education, cheaper tablet computing devices would replace books and multiple writing instruments and information conveyance would be designed for the times, not relegated to what has worked in the past few hundred years. The times, they are a changin', to quote the bard from Minnesota.

But the iPod -- and indeed, portable sound devices in general -- may have a place in today's schoolroom. In New Jersey and a few other places, iPods are being used to assist bilingual students with limited English as they work on their vocabulary and grammar skills. Are English books interesting to these students for whom English is not their primary language? Hardly, according to many school administrators. But the iPod can help make language lessons interactive and thus more engaging.

Continue reading Apple (AAPL) iPods required equipment in some classrooms

Research In Motion (RIMM) shares enter bullish 'flag' pattern

Research In Motion (NASDAQ: RIMM) is engaged in the design, manufacture and marketing of wireless devices for the mobile communications market. Its popular line of BlackBerry smart phones handle voice, email and text message communications, as well as internet access. The firm also makes radio-based modems that other manufacturers incorporate into portable devices. The company sells to corporations, resellers, and wireless carriers. BlackBerry units are offered by a variety of service providers, including Alltel (NYSE: AT) and Verizon Communications (NYSE: VZ).

The firm pleased investors last week when it reported Q2 EPS of 50 cents and revenues of $1.37 billion. Analysts had been expecting 49 cents and $1.36 billion. The CEO said that recent product and market initiatives are expected to extend business momentum through the remainder of the fiscal year. Management guided Q3 EPS to 59-63 cents (55 cent consensus) and Q3 revenues to $1.60-$1.67 billion ($1.52B consensus). Officials anticipate third quarter subscriber account additions of about 1.65 million. The stock popped on the news and has since passed into a bullish "flag" consolidation pattern. Prices frequently exit flags moving in the same direction they were traveling when they entered them. In this case, that would be to the upside.

So far this year, brokers have recommended the shares with one "strong buy," nine "buys" and four "holds." Analysts see a 34% average annual growth rate, through the next five years. The stock's Sales Growth rate (26.84%), EPS Growth rate (100.00%), Operating Margin (27.07%), Net Profit Margin (20.70%), Return on Assets (26.94%), Return on Investment (33.09%), Return on Equity (33.82%) and Net Income per Employee ($140k) compare favorably with industry, sector and S&P 500 averages. Institutional investors hold about 76% of the outstanding shares. The issue is one of those used to calculate the NASDAQ 100 Index. Over the past 52 weeks, it has traded between $36.00 and $118.80. A stop-loss of $99.00 looks good here.

Larry Schutts is a contributing editor for Theflyonthewall.com and the Vice-President of Stockwinners.com.

YouTube on the revs Google's (GOOG) money machine

Back in the 1980s and 1990s, Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) had always known its key focus: do whatever is possible to leverage the operating system.

Well, something similar is happening to Google (NASDAQ: GOOG). The company realizes that when it needs results, it should focus on its advertising machine.

So it's no surprise that the company is adding YouTube videos to the Google AdSense network. There will be both banner and text ads. What's more, it should be an additional source of income for Google's many Web publishers.

Actually, I tried out the system – and it is pretty easy to use (what Google service isn't?) You can see an example at the top left of this post.

What's more, I talked to Chase Norlin about it. He is the CEO and founder of Pixsy (a video search engine). According to him:

"Google acquired YouTube not necessarily for their huge destination site audience, but because they now have the ultimate media aggregation tool for consumer, semipro, and professional content providers. Once the licensing issues are sorted out, Google will have a solid weapon in the content distribution market via AdSense. The challenge, of course, will be to equal or exceed the existing monetization capabilities of the AdSense network."

Nintendo launches Wii Fit for fitness freaks

Nintendo's stock was up again last night in Tokyo. No wonder. It is still beating Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and Sony (NYSE: SNE) with newer and better innovations in the game console business.

The latest gem from the Japanese gaming firm is the Wii Fit.

According to Reuters "the new game features a pressure-sensing mat called the "Wii Balance Board", which looks like a set of bathroom scales and can sense when a person moves and leans, enabling players to "head" virtual soccer balls and experience ski jumping on a TV screen." It can also be used for yoga and other exercises.

The poor people who make the Xbox 360 and PS3 must be scratching their heads. First, Nintendo beat them in units sales for next generation game sales. Now, the smaller company comes to market with a product that pushes the envelop of what a video game is and what it can do.

Perhaps the people at Microsoft and Sony are not interested in fitness.

Douglas A. McIntyre is a partner at 24/7 Wall St.

Skype founder - the master of the mega deal ... for himself

In Internet time, eBay's (NASDAQ: EBAY) $4.3 billion deal for Skype seems like a distant memory (it was about two years ago). Back then, the fast-growing peer-to-peer communications company was the "it" company. It could do no wrong – and would be a killer deal for eBay. Hey, doesn't eBay know how to cultivate loyal communities?

Maybe so. But, the fact remains that the deal turned out to be a stinker. eBay recently took a write off of $1.4 billion.

Interestingly enough, the cofounder of Skype, Niklas Zennstrom, admitted that the price tag was too high. Yet, at the same time, he thinks Skype will eventually pay off in a big way (he termed it "substantial income").

In light of his prior statement – and that founders tend to hype things – I'm not sure I would take this to the bank, though.

But, does it really matter? After all, Zennstrom is using is payday to fund a variety of startups, such as Joost.

But if he knocks on your door to sell his one of his ventures, I would try to negotiate a little better than eBay.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Edgar Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements. He also operates DealProfiles.com.

Micro-blogging service Jaiku snapped up by Google

Twitter has seen lots of traction lately. But, there is competition, such as from Finland's Jaiku. The company says that it's "an activity stream and presence sharing service that works from the Web and mobile phones."

And, now Google Inc. (Nasdaq: GOOG) has just bought the company. In fact, Jaiku is a spring chicken, having been founded in February 2006 (the product launched in July 2006).

No doubt, mobile is key for Google. And, like other areas – such as videos – it's been tough for the company to develop things organically. So, why not buy its way into the space?

Unfortunately, you can't check out the Jaiku service (it's closed to new users right now). And as seen with other Google deals – such as for Jot – it's unclear when we might see it re-emerge (or appear in other Google services).

But, if I were Twitter, I would be quivering.

Also, if you want to check out other M&A deals, click here.

Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Edgar Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements.

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Symbol Lookup
IndexesChangePrice
DJIA-84.7913,993.90
NASDAQ-43.702,767.91
S&P; 500-11.021,551.45

Last updated: October 11, 2007: 03:37 PM

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