Starting in 1996, Alexa Internet has been donating their crawl data to the Internet Archive. Flowing in every day, these data are added to the Wayback Machine after an embargo period.
Goldman has powered back from its 52-week low of $157.38 in August to a new high of $239.70 earlier this month. GS opened this morning at $232.86. So far today the stock has hit a low of $229.36 and a high of $233.50. As of 11:05, GS is trading at 231.45, up 4.79 (2.1%). The chart for GS looks bullish and steady, while S&P gives the stock a very positive 5 STARS (out of 5) strong buy rating.
For a bullish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a December bull-put credit spread below the $180 range. A bull-put credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of put options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 5.3% return in just 2 months as long as GS is above $180 at December expiration. Goldman would have to fall by more than 21% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
The Wall Street Journal is declaring (subscription required) Countrywide Financial Corp. (NYSE: CFC) CEO Angelo Mozilo's days numbered. Granted the paper is not going out on a limb. The stock has been an absolute dog of late, and several big investors have called for Mozilo's head. Oh, and then there's the small matter of the SEC investigating his stock sales.
And according to the Heard on the Street column:
In another blow, Henry Cisneros, a former U.S. Secretary of Housing and Urban Development, stepped down from the Countrywide board this week, the third director to quit this year. Mr. Cisneros expressed "enormous confidence" in Mr. Mozilo.
Still, as Oscar Wilde might have put it, losing one board member at a time of crisis might be called a misfortune; losing three looks careless.
Does anyone have confidence in Mozilo and Countrywide Financial? Resigning from the board and expressing "enormous confidence" doesn't count. Judging from his huge stock sales, it appears Mr. Mozilo might not have confidence in either himself. The company reports its earnings today, and huge losses are expected.
Doesn't it feel like every time you make a transaction - rent a car, use a credit card, invest in a mutual fund - some fee you didn't expect and don't understand claims more of your money? It's hard not to feel cheated. What are those fees for, anyway? Are they justified? And most important, is there a way to avoid them?
A big shift is happening in company health plans. Workers are being held more accountable and bigger discounts are being given to those who participate in wellness programs. The Honor Roll recognizes the very best of the hundreds of commercial, Medicare, and Medicaid managed-care plans reviewed for this year's U.S. News health plan rankings. Most of the best plans in the country are based in New England.
Feeling like playing hooky, but nervous about getting caught? The Excused Absence Network has got your back. For about $25, students and employees can buy excuse notes that appear to come from doctors or hospitals. Other options include a fake jury summons or an authentic-looking funeral service program complete with comforting poems and a list of pallbearers.
Older Americans are getting duped by the lead card, a seemingly innocuous tactic that can expose them to solicitations even if they are on the Do Not Call Registry. The technique is prompting legal action across the country.
Britney Spears's every move is documented by paparazzi and celebrity blogs, but there is one area where she is keeping a low profile: promotional efforts for her fifth album, "Blackout," set for release Tuesday. That's remarkable, given the make-or-break moment that appears to be at hand for the 25-year-old singer. Hollywood Report - WSJ.com
Hostile Hotspots
"Vacation" in Rwanda? Increasingly countries that were war-torn, under brutal dictatorships, or simply off-limits to visitors are trying to woo curious travelers with catchy slogans, promises of unspoiled coastlines or uncharted territory, and, more often than not, a taste of the conflict that put these locales on the map.
How does ant caviar sound? Maggot cheese? Snake wine?'Fear Factor' may have introduced edible oddities to the masses, but there are a number of unusual delicacies from around the world that have been around for centuries. Take a short tour of some of the world's oddest edibles. Before you read on make sure you have a strong stomach.
Here's a shock: Countrywide Financial Corp. (NYSE: CFC) is deep in the red. The beleaguered mortgage company lost a whopping $1.2 billion, or $2.85 per share, in the quarter compared with earnings of $647.6 million, or $1.03 per share. It was its first quarterly loss in 25 years.
But wait, the news isn't all bad, according to the company.
"We view the third quarter of 2007 as an earnings trough, and anticipate that the Company will be profitable in the fourth quarter and in 2008," President and Chief Operating Officer David Sambol said in the earnings release. "Over the longer term, we believe that prospects for the U.S. housing and mortgage markets, as well as for Countrywide, remain very attractive."
Chief Executive Angelo Mozilo goes even further, saying, "...during the period we also laid the foundation for a return to profitability in the fourth quarter..... We believe the steps which we have taken position the Company with the necessary capital and liquidity for our operating and growth needs, and will allow us to benefit from opportunities that result from industry consolidation."
Bank of America (NYSE: BAC) volatility at five-year highs. BAC purchased $2 billion of preferred stock from CFC on 8/22/07. The securities could be converted into Countrywide Financial (NYSE: CFC) stock at $18 per share. CFC closed at $13.07. BAC November option implied volatility of 29 is above its 26-week average of 22 according to Track Data, suggesting larger risk.
Stock index futures pointed to a higher opening Friday on Wall Street, amid speculation that technology stocks would rise on Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT)'s strong earnings report late Thursday. Optimism was tempered on expectations that the monthly consumer confidence survey due Friday morning will show a declining economic outlook.
Yesterday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost just 3.33, ending a volatile trading session that saw the index swing as low as far as 100 points down. The Nasdaq Composite Index fared worse, falling 23.90, or 0.86%, to 2,750.86, while the S&P slipped 1.48 to 1,514.40.
The University of Michigan will release final consumer confidence figures for October at 10 this morning. The monthly survey is expected to show Americans more pessimistic about the nation's economic future.
Trucking group Arkansas Best Corp. (NASDAQ: ABFS) and industrial conglomerate Ingersoll-Rand (NYSE: IR) are among other companies reporting earnings Friday.
Abroad, stocks headed higher in Asia, with Japan's Nikkei and Hong Kong's Hang Seng indexes rising. Stocks were flat in early European trading.
Microsoft reported first-quarter earnings after the market close Thursday, posting a 23 percent rise that exceeding analysts' expectations. The software giant raised its forecasts for the year, citing sales of Windows Vista and its new Xbox 360 game Halo 3.
Most mergers are driven by the notion, sometimes wildly mistaken, that the combination will bring both a competitive advantage. Some pairs of companies, however, seem so intuitively right for one another, no bottom-line considerations should be allowed to interfere with their matrimony. Like an empty rental and a copper thief, these two seem drawn together.
The leader in the mortgage meltdown, Countrywide Financial (NYSE: CFC) managed to leverage its bon-homey, don't-ask-don't-tell lending policies into a corporate disaster. Where, you might ask, can it turn to make lemonade out of these lemons?
To answer this I asked myself, what do people do when the mortgage bill is greater than the sum of their paychecks, savings, hockable goods and child's piggy bank? Usually, when the going gets tough, the tough go drinking. Who, then, would be a better partner for Countrywide than distilling giant Diageo plc (NYSE: DEO)?
The newly dispossessed won't be drinking alone, either. With the CEO selling off his holdings, the SEC reviewing the company's stock option awards, and massive layoffs through the industry, millions of us with a piece of the mortgage business could use a stiff shot of J&B with a Guinness chaser.
What's that old saying -- keep your friends close and your enemies closer? Bruce Marks, chief executive of the NACA, told the House Financial Services Committee last month that Countrywide was "the prime example for both predatory lending practices and predatory servicing."
Smart move. If you're planning to turn around and help those your loan programs could hurt, you might as well do it with a key critic to stop some of the bleeding. Countrywide is in the middle of an informal inquiry by the SEC. No doubt the moves to help homeowners in trouble will ease some of this pressure cooker. Countrywide Chairman and Chief Executive Angelo Mozilo said he is "confident" the SEC will find no wrongdoing.
Well these moves at least show Countrywide is looking for forgiveness for past transgressions. As I said in my interview with Fox Business News yesterday, who contacted me after seeing my post on BloggingStocks, this move was long overdue and I hope other lenders follow their lead. If lenders had taken these steps a year earlier, we probably wouldn't be in the housing mess we are today -- there would be fewer properties selling at fire sale prices and real estate would be in better shape.
Lita Epstein has written more than 20 books including The 250 Questions You Should Ask to Avoid Foreclosure and The Complete Idiot's Guide to Improving Your Credit Score due out in December.
Option ARMs -- I call these the upside-down mortgages -- are now showing signs of weakness according to the Wall Street Journal today. The Journal reports that 3.55% of option ARMs originated by Countrywide (NYSE: CFC) are at least 60 days late. The problem could grow dramatically between 2009 and 2011, when monthly payments on $229 billion of option ARMs will be adjusted to market-rate interest and principal.
These mortgages start with a teaser rate well below the market rate and then allow payments that don't even cover all the interest charges. Of course, no principal is paid either. Instead the unpaid interest is added to the principal of the loan - hence my nickname the upside-down mortgage. It's much like an upside-down car loan. Your mortgage principal quickly becomes higher than the price at which you can sell your home. During the meteoric rise in house prices when the housing bubble was inflating, this was no big deal. But now that housing prices are dropping, many people will be stuck with mortgage principals higher than the market value of their home and they won't be able to refinance when the loan resets to market rates. They also won't be able to sell their home without coming up with cash at closing.
You've probably seen this type of loan advertised on TV or the Internet where the consumer is promised a ridiculously low payment of $300 or $500 a month on a $200,000 mortgage loan. Or when the lender says borrowers can pick their payments each month. Yes, they're giving borrowers options, but none of them are financially sound -- except for the immediate satisfaction of a low loan payment for a couple of years. These are a sure road to financial disaster. I wonder why it's taken so long for someone to notice?
Lita Epstein has written more than 20 books including "The 250 Questions You Should Ask to Avoid Foreclosure" and the "Complete idiot's Guide to Improving Your Credit Score" due out in December.
Countrywide Financial (NYSE: CFC) is already in deep trouble because of defaults in its subprime loan business, but who would have guessed that some of its higher-quality loans would get into trouble just as quickly?
The Wall Street Journalwrites that, "Some loans classified as prime when they were originated are now going bad at a rapid pace." These loans are known as option adjustable-rate mortgages. They allow borrowers to pay very little in the first few years of the loan period. But an analysis prepared for The Wall Street Journal by UBS AG shows that 3.55% of option ARMs originated by Countrywide in 2006 and packaged into securities sold to investors are at least 60 days past due. That delinquency rate is worse than other mortgage companies offering similar products.
The really big trouble with these loans could begin in 2009, when more of them reset to higher rates.
The news points out two issues that have been largely masked as Wall Street and the media focus on the subprime mortgage mess. The first is that poor lending practices may have allowed a number of middle class home buyers to take on debt that they almost certainly could not repay unless housing prices continued to move up sharply for another five to ten years. The other is that if the mortgage default rates are bad today, the problem could worsen in a year or two.
The bottom line is that one of the largest drags on the US economy, which is housing prices and mortgage payment problems, may not bottom out for another 24 months.
If that is true, the recession that may be coming could be longer and deeper than investors would care to imagine.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor of 247wallst.com.
While 2006 may go down in Wall Street history as a year of record profits, 2007 is looking to be a record year for layoffs. BusinessWeek reports that with two months to go, Wall Street has announced 130,000 job cuts so far in 2007 -- more than double the 50,000 cuts announced in 2006 and higher than the record 116,000 announced in 2001.
Why? The cratering of the mortgage business -- involving mortgage workers and the packagers and traders of mortgage-backed securities. Here are some examples:
Lenders are feeling the heat to modify loans, but as the numbers mount loan servicers are finding they are helping more people but falling behind on the percentages. For example, Larry Litton of Litton Loan Servicing told USA Today that historically his company has been able to help 60% of homeowners avoid foreclosure, but today because of tougher lending standards, falling home prices and poorly underwritten loans, he only can modify about 45% of the bad loans on his books.
Countrywide (NYSE: CFC) does feel the pressure, and is the first major lender to announce that it will refinance or modify $16 billion in subprime ARMs that will reset through next year. Now if other lenders and investors would jump on that bandwagon maybe we really would have a solution and prevent a further deterioration in the housing markets. Countrywide will contact borrowers who are current on their loans but facing a rate reset to discuss options. It expects to refinance about $10 billion in loans and modify another $4 billion.
Countrywide's solution answers what the FDIC wants. Sheila Bair, chair of the FDIC, told USA Today that she wants lenders to covert people to fixed rates now who are paying on time before the ARM resets. That's 80% of people currently in ARMs that will be reset in the next year.
Apple Inc.'s (NASDAQ: AAPL) shares are up over 7.5% to $187.49 in premarket trading after the company reported a blowout fourth quarter to round up an excellent year. Profits jumped 67% in Apple's fiscal fourth-quarter in a year when the company saw the demand for its Mac computers growing, successfully launched the iPhone not to mention the iPod's continued success. Mac shipments reached a record 2.16 million in the quarter, an increase of 34% from the same period a year ago, to generate $3.1 billion, or about half of the company's revenues for the quarter. iPod sales grew 17% and the company sold 1.12 million iPhones in the quarter.
Countrywide Financial Corp. (NYSE: CFC) said that in an effort to help keep people from losing their homes, "it will begin calling borrowers to offer refinancing or modifications on $16 billion in loans whose interest rate is set to adjust by the end of 2008."
Unlike Apple, Texas Instruments Inc.'s (NYSE: TXN) shares are down nearly 5.9% in premarket trading. The largest maker of chips used in wireless phones reported third-quarter earnings after the close yesterday. While profits rose 11% on stronger demand for analog chips and lower manufacturing costs, revenues, nonetheless, dropped. UBS, Lehman Brothers, JP Morgan and Jefferies & Co. all downgraded TXN.
Online DVD rental pioneer Netflix Inc. (NASDAQ: NFLX) shares are up over 14.5% in premarket trading after reporting a surprisingly strong performance in its third quarter yesterday after the close. The company's price-cutting strategy revived its subscriber growth and Netflix earned $15.7 million, or 23 cents per share in the quarter, a 23% increase from the same period last year. Analysts, on average, had been anticipating earnings of 15 cents per share, according to Thomson Financial.
Mergers I'd like to see -- Mattel (MAT) and Waste Management (WMI)
Entrepreneur's Journal: Bootstrap it like Google
Comfort Zone Investing: Can the market go higher? Definitely maybe
Here's a shock: 
Bank of America
Stock index futures pointed to a higher opening Friday on Wall Street, amid speculation that technology stocks would rise on 
Most mergers are driven by the notion, sometimes wildly mistaken, that the combination will bring both a competitive advantage. Some pairs of companies, however, seem so intuitively right for one another, no bottom-line considerations should be allowed to interfere with their matrimony. Like an empty rental and a copper thief, these two seem drawn together.
