To me, it was inevitable that PetroChina ADR (NYSE: PTR) would become one the largest companies in the world, so I am not surprised by news that it has surpassed General Electric (NYSE: GE) to become the world's second largest company. It now stands behind only Exxon Mobile (NYSE: XOM), and has a much faster growth rate.
I have been shouting about this stock to anyone who would listen since I started writing for BloggingStocks, and hopefully a few have taken notice and earned some money with me. While GE has made some modest gains this year moving almost in lockstep with the indices, PetroChina is up almost 70% and has been paying a generous dividend the entire time. PTR reached a value of $434 billion riding the news of $85-a-barrel oil while GE is hanging tough around $413 billion on a down day in the market.
My original thesis when PTR was at $44 a share, paying about a 5.5% dividend yield and carrying a trailing P/E of 9.5, was that this stock was having a fire sale. Since that time, the stock has simply been on fire. I liked this stock because I felt that few things come close to the certainty of the sun rising in the morning, but the Chinese consuming more oil tomorrow than they did yesterday was one of them. The last time I recommended the stock, it was trading at $142.12 last December when I suggested investors add it to their watch lists for an opportunity to acquire it. That opportunity came as it dipped as low as $108.18.
This still holds true, except that now you have to pay in the neighborhood of $234 a share. Today it is up about $18 as I write, after rising about the same last Friday when it closed just above $216. The current P/E is about 14.5 (TTM) according to AOL Money & Finance, and the dividend yield has fallen to 2.1%. All this gusto pushing the stock higher suggests that investors are anticipating sustained higher oil prices and the commensurate higher sales and earnings from PetroChina.
I remain a buy-and-hold guy, and this one seems like it will be part of my estate planning. I still recommend that investors watch for a buying opportunity again, but I also remain consistent in my advice to not buy stocks at their all-time highs. Nothing goes straight up, and PTR won't either, so be patient and be prepared.
To find potential opportunities and verify my track record, read Chasing Value or Serious Money.
Sheldon Liber is the CEO of a small private investment company and the principal for design and research at an architecture & planning firm
Reader Comments (Page 1 of 1)
1. It doesn't take much.
Posted at 8:34PM on Oct 15th 2007 by Tattletale