ACCORDING TO A POLL some 4.4 million Brits have expressed strong interest in acquiring an Iphone – even though it will cost £269 (about $70 above the current US price) and will probably mean switching network suppliers to O2.

That would seem good news for the Cappuccino Kid. But there's a huge difference between telling a pollster something you'll do something and then actually parting with hard earned cash.

Extrapolating the results of its research, bean juggler M:metrics concludes that most punters have been lying through their teeth. They won't actually go for it

M:metrics' Paul Goode pointed out that 50 per cent of those saying they'd go for the Iphone hadn't paid a single penny for their current phone. Plus 50 per cent of those expressing an interest in the Iphone were on prepay.

You wouldn't be on a prepay tariff unless you were a skinflint so why would you suddenly pay £269 for a handset when you could easily get one for free?

Particularly since one third of those saying they'd buy an Iphone would have to downgrade from an existing 3G handset to a device that only supports EDGE.

Don't forget that you're stuck with this mobile phone for 18 months if you sign the contract.

In 18 months time, all other smartphones will be supporting HSDPA, yet you'll be stuck with something that isn't even 3G.

But who has the most to lose from an Apple success story? To a certain extent it will be 3, since a high number of existing 3 users said they might defect.

But there aren't that many 3 UK users anyway, so in practical terms Vodafone actually stands to lose the highest number of users.

A very similar situation exists with which handset vendor stands to be most hurt by an Iphone success story. In terms of sheer numbers, says M:metrics, Nokia would look like coming out hardest hit.

Sony Ericsson has nailed its colours most closely to the music mobile phone sector. So if the Iphone does well, then it will effectively lose the most potential sales.

So where's the catch? Well a whopping 57 per cent of existing Iphone users in the US say they are totally happy with the Iphone. That compares to just 20 per cent of existing smartphone users saying that they were content.

So even if Saint Steve doesn't hit his target of 10 million phones sold in 12 months, he's still shaken up the smartphone market.

It's all down to how much pull the Apple brand has. O2 doesn't need to care, anyway. US figures show that 90 per cent of Iphone users have surfed the mobile web, compared to a mere 10 per cent of ordinary mobile phone users.

Interestingly, unlike Europe, all the Top 10 selling US smartphones have some kind of keyboard. Whatever happens Steve has radically reduced the mobile phone industry's approach to ease of use. And particularly – ease of getting online. µ