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Box Office: Wake Up Call

The holiday weekend was a good one for ticket sales. The Disney magic is apparently still working, with Enchanted pulling $35 million for the weekend and a total of $49 million since its release on Wednesday. The holiday themed This Christmas has already turned a profit, pulling in a total of $26 million, roughly twice what it cost to make the thing. I underestimated that one in my prediction, and overestimated the performance of The Mist which came in ninth, making $8.9 million for the weekend and a total of $12.8 million. Not too shabby for a movie with a budget of only $18 million. Here's the final tally:

1. Enchanted: $35.3 million.
2. This Christmas: $18.6 million.
3. Beowulf: $16.2 million.
4. Hitman: $13 million.
5. Bee Movie: $12 million.

If you absolutely must see something new this weekend, pickings are slim, but there are still plenty of movies in release to suit many tastes. This week's newbie poses perhaps the greatest philosophical question of our age: what might happen if a Jedi Knight married a member of the Fantastic Four?

Awake
What's It All About:
Hayden Christensen plays a victim of anesthetic awareness, a phenomenon in which a patient remains conscious but paralyzed under anesthesia. While in this state, he hears his surgeons plotting to murder him and pretend his death was the result of complications. Jessica Alba stars as Christensen's wife.
Why It Might Do Well: Being this week's only new wide release certainly won't hurt the film's chances.
Why It Might Not Do Well: I'm betting Enchanted still has legs enough to pull off a second week in the number one spot, so I think Awake may have to settle for the silver.
Number of Theaters: 2,000
Prediction:
$14 million

Last week's Thanksgiving dinner and the steady stream of turkey sandwiches that followed have left me chock full of tryptophan, a substance commonly found in turkey and believed by some (well, me at least) to enhance a person's precognitive abilities. The turkey has given me visions of the future, and here's what I think next week's box office take will look like:

1. Enchanted
2. Awake
3. This Christmas
4. Beowulf
5. Hitman


Participation in last week's competition was on the light side. Sure, cast me aside in favor of spending time with your loved ones. Here's how everyone did:

1. Ray: 11
2. yoyo456: 9
2. Mario: 9
3. Matt: 7
3. Chris: 7
4. Gregory Rubinstein: 6
4. L: 6
4. Chloe: 6
5. Aaron/ABIRD0006:5

Now's your chance to wow the world with your box office prediction prowess. Don't forget to post your prediction in the comments section below before 5:00PM on Saturday. One point for every top five movie correctly named, two points for every correct placement, and one extra point for the top movie.

Box Office: Enchanting The Mist This Christmas

Despite the fact that the story has been around for centuries, an ancient tale mixed with the latest in motion capture technology took top honors last weekend. Bee Movie held onto second place in its third week, outdoing last week's other big release Mr. Magorium's Wonder Emporium.

1. Beowulf
$27.5 million
2. Bee Movie $14 million
3. American Gangster $12.8 million
4. Fred Claus $11.9 million
5. Mr. Magorium's Wonder Emporium $9.6 million

This week the holiday box office season starts in earnest with five new releases, and another going into wider release.

August Rush
What's It All About: A young musical prodigy, separated from his parents at birth uses his talent as a clue to find them. Kerri Russell and Freddie Highmore star.
Why It Might Do Well: A story about a family's struggle to be reunited would seem appropriate for the holiday season.
Why It Might Not Do Well:
Since it's now November, the title may fool people into thinking this one has been out for three months already. Also, rottentomatoes.com is only giving this a 55% rating.
Number of Theaters: 2,310
Prediction:
$5.5 million

Enchanted
What's It All About: A fairytale/cartoon princess finds herself transported to modern day New York.
Why It Might Do Well: While August Rush is about family this one is for families, and that's going to make the big difference. It's got a cute premise, a trailer with a few laughs, an 88% fresh rating at rottentomatoes.com, and the widest release of the week. I think this is our number one movie.
Why It Might Not Do Well: Don't see that happening.
Number of Theaters: 3,730
Prediction:
$39 million

Hitman
What's It All About: A hired gunman finds political intrigue in Europe in this film based on the video game.
Why It Might Do Well: Fans of the game will probably flock to see what appears to be a great looking film.
Why It Might Not Do Well: You don't see a lot of great films based on video games. Resident Evil wasn't bad, but I'm still gagging on the badness that was Silent Hill.
Number of Theaters: 2,457
Prediction: $11 million

Continue reading Box Office: Enchanting The Mist This Christmas

Box Office: Beowulf's Cholera Emporium

In the time I've been doing this feature I don't think this has ever happened before: last week's number two film is number one this week. None of the new films from last week were up to the challenge of outselling Bee Movie and American Gangster, and the animated Jerry Seinfeld comedy managed to outdo the Denzel Washington/Russell Crowe crime drama and usurp the top spot. Don't believe me? Look for yourself:

1. Bee Movie: $26 million.
2. American Gangster: $24.3 million.
3. Fred Claus: $19.2 million.
4. Lions for Lambs: $6.7 million.
5. Dan in Real Life: $5.9 million.

Escape from modern life seems to be the key to this week's releases with one taking place in the past, another taking place in a contemporary fantasy world and a third in a fantasy version of the 8th century.

Beowulf
What's It All About: The epic poem believed to have been penned around 700 A.D. is adapted for the big screen using an all digital approach with the actors performances being rendered via motion capture.
Why It Might Do Well: The action looks spectacular.
Why It Might Not Do Well: I can't be the only person who thinks that, despite the remarkable technical achievement at work here, it still looks like a video game.
Number of Theaters: 2,800
Prediction:
$30 million

Love in the Time of Cholera
What's It All About:
The story of a love triangle in South America at the turn of the 20th century from the director of Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire and Four Weddings and a Funeral.
Why It Might Do Well: Because love and infectious diseases go together like peanut butter and jelly.
Why It Might Not Do Well:
Period drama is a tough sell, and the relatively small release will keep it out of the top five.
Number of Theaters: 800
Prediction: $3.5 million

Continue reading Box Office: Beowulf's Cholera Emporium

Box Office: To Bee Or Not To Bee

As expected, Saw IV continued the franchise's tradition of tearing it up at the Halloween box office, and Dan in Real Life took second place, placating audiences looking for something milder. The only thing that kept me from a perfect score on my prediction was the fact that The Game Plan had a little more life in it than I thought, beating out Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married for fourth place. Ah well, whatcha gonna do. Congrats to Bubba8193 for hitting one out of the park. And now without further ado, here's last weekend's final box office numbers:

1. Saw IV
: $32.1 million.
2. Dan in Real Life: $12.1 million.
3. 30 Days of Night: $6.7 million.
4. The Game Plan: $6.3 million.
5. Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married? $5.7 million

Looking for a new release this weekend? Well, here are your options:

American Gangster
What's It All About: Set in the 1970s, American Gangster stars Denzel Washington as a Harlem drug lord who smuggles heroin inside the bodies of U.S. soldiers killed in Vietnam, and Russel Crowe plays the maverick cop out to stop him.
Why It Might Do Well: Two high caliber stars, Ridley Scott at the helm and an 89% fresh rating over at Rottentomatoes.com suggest this one is going to pull in some serious coin.
Why It Might Not Do Well:
Those of us who have recently suffered through the tedium that was We Own The Night know all too well how badly a period cop story can go wrong.
Number of Theaters: 3,000
Prediction: $31 million

Bee Movie
What's It All About: Computer animated comedy starring the voices of Jerry Seinfeld and Renee Zellweger. Seinfeld plays Barry B. Benson, an idealistic young honey bee who decides to sue the human race for stealing his people's honey.
Why It Might Do Well: Promotion for this film started a looooonng time ago, so the word is definitely out there. Even nine years after his sitcom finished up, Seinfeld is still a recognizable and highly bankable star, and I think this will be this weekend's number one movie.
Why It Might Not Do Well: Only if actual bees are released in the theater.
Number of Theaters: 3,500
Prediction:
$38 million

Continue reading Box Office: To Bee Or Not To Bee

Box Office: Vampires, Parody and Intrigue

Once again, last week's number one movie eluded most of us who took part in our weekly prediction game. Only Bubba8193 and Ray successfully foresaw that Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married would take first place, and I was again surprised by how well The Game Plan held on to second place in its third week out. Here's the final tally:

Tyler Perry's Why Did I Get Married:
$21.3 million
The Game Plan:
$11 million
We Own the Night: $10.8 million
Michael Clayton: $10.3 million
The Heartbreak Kid:
$7.2 million

As for this week...

30 Days of Night
What's It All About: Vampires invade an Alaskan town during a month long stretch of arctic night.
Why It Might Do Well: Halloween's on the way, and I'm sure I'm not the only one looking to get my creep on at the multiplex. The film is based on an acclaimed graphic novel and produced by Sam "Evil Dead" Raimi. I see this taking the number one spot.
Why It Might Not Do Well: Ain't gonna happen.
Number of Theaters: 2,700
Prediction: $21 million

The Comebacks
What's It All About: A parody of inspirational sports movies.
Why It Might Do Well: Moviegoers looking for something familiar will probably recognize a similarity to the likes of Date Movie and the Scary Movie franchise, and its opening in more theaters than any other new film this week.
Why It Might Not Do Well: Director Tom Brady also gave us the Rob Schneider vehicle The Hot Chick. Need I say more?
Number of Theaters: 2,800
Prediction: $12 million

Gone Baby Gone

What's It All About: Ben Affleck directs and Casey Affleck stars in a film about two private investigators hired to look into the disappearance of a little girl.
Why It Might Do Well: There's some strong buzz for this one (91% at Rottentomatoes.com), and the film is based on a novel from the author of Mystic River.
Why It Might Not Do Well: Confusion may result if the public mistakes this for a sequel to Mario Bava's Kill Baby Kill.
Number of Theaters: 1,500
Prediction:
$7 million

Rendition
What's It All About: Reese Witherspoon plays a woman searching for her husband who has been detained by the CIA on suspicion of terrorism. Jake Gyllenhaal also stars.
Why It Might Do Well: Topical storyline mixed with some appealing leads will probably sell tickets.
Why It Might Not Do Well: The story may be too topical, making some people uncomfortable.
Number of Theaters: 2,200
Prediction: $11.5 million

See more after the jump ...

Continue reading Box Office: Vampires, Parody and Intrigue

Box Office: The Evil Chuck and Sydney

No huge surprises in last weekend's box office returns. Jodie Foster's new thriller took the lead with slithery CGI serpents bringing up the rear at number five. Superbad is definitely getting some McLovin' after being in the top five for five weeks now. Here are the numbers from last weekend:

The Brave One: $13.4 million
3:10 to Yuma: $8.9 million
Mr. Woodcock: $8.7 million
Superbad: $5.1 million
Dragon Wars: $5 million

This weekend we've got three new releases, plus two more flicks going into wider release. Check it out:

Good Luck Chuck
What's It All About: Dane Cook plays a man cursed. Every woman he has ever slept with has found true love with the next person they meet after dumping him. Now that he's in love with a woman played by Jessica Alba he has to find a way to break the curse.
Why It Might Do Well:
Judging from the trailer, Ms. Alba spends at least part of the film in her underwear. Not a bad thing.
Why It Might Not Do Well:
The plot synopsis and all the pratfalls in the trailer remind me way too much of Three's Company.
Number of Theaters: 2,500
Prediction: $10 million

Resident Evil: Extinction
What's It All About: Milla Jovovich returns as Alice, kicking zombie butt in the Nevada desert and taking on the evil Umbrella Corporation in this third installment of the video game-based franchise.
Why It Might Do Well:
Halloween's success at the box office showed that people are up for a good scare, and for my money I'll take a zombie flick over a slasher movie any day of the week. I'm even willing to overlook my lukewarm feelings about Resident Evil: Apocalypse.
Why It Might Not Do Well:
The list of crappy movies based on video games is a long and sad one.
Number of Theaters:
2,700
Prediction:
$22 million

Sydney White
What's It All About:
Amanda Bynes stars in this modern take on Snow White, playing a college student who after being rejected by the sorority she hoped to join is taken in by seven dorks.
Why It Might Do Well:
Bynes has a great sense of comedic timing. If you thought The Amanda Show was just for kids, you might be surprised at how intelligent the humor was.
Why It Might Not Do Well:
It's basically a teen comedy, and Superbad is a tough act to follow.
Number of Theaters: 1,900
Prediction:
$7 million

And, although these next two opened last weekend, they're both spreading out into a greater number of theaters:

Across the Universe
What's It All About:
A musical love story that takes place in the turbulent 1960s set to the music of The Beatles.
Why It MIght Do Well:
It looks downright trippy, and it's got Beatles tunes. What's not to love?
Why It Might Not Do Well: It's not a huge release so this won't make the top five.
Number of Theaters: 400
Prediction: $2.5 million

Eastern Promises
What's It All About:
David Cronenberg and Viggo Mortensen, the director and star of A History of Violence, re-team for this thriller. Naomi Watts plays a London midwife who comes into possession of a diary that could be dangerous for Russian mobsters.
Why It MIght Do Well:
After their last collaboration, I'm dying to see what Mortensen and Cronenberg come up with.
Why It Might Not Do Well: Oh, don't be so negative.
Number of Theaters:
1,325
Prediction: $8 million


Here's how I'm betting things will go this coming weekend:

1. Resident Evil: Extinction
2. Good Luck Chuck
3. The Brave One
4. Eastern Promises
5. Sydney White

And here's how our little competition went last week:

1. Josh: 13
2. Matt: 11
2. Anna07: 11
2. Porcalina: 11
3. Ness265: 9
3. drklrdbill: 9
4. Lee: 8
4. Max: 8
4. Brad: 8
5. Ray: 7
6. peter: 6
7. ABIRD0006: 4
7. MikeJM79: 4

Here's how the competition works:

Please post your prediction in the comments section below before 5:00PM on Saturday. One point for every top five movie correctly named, two points for every correct placement, and one extra point for the top movie.

Box Office: Vengeance, Vipers and Billy Bob

Someone call Stephen Hawking and find out if we're in some kind of time warp, because a western was the number one movie in America last weekend. That certainly hasn't happened for awhile. Russell Crowe and Christian Bale's remake of 3:10 to Yuma took top honors, pushing another remake -- Rob Zombie's Halloween -- back to number 2. After being out for several weeks, Superbad and The Bourne Ultimatum are still clinging to the top five like William Shatner clutching his hairpiece in a high wind. Here's the breakdown:

1.
3:10 to Yuma: $14 million
2. Halloween: $9.5 million.
3. Superbad: $7.5 million.
4. Shoot 'Em Up: $5.7 million.
5. The Bourne Ultimatum: $5.6 million.

What's happening this week? We've got vengeance, giant lizards and traumatic memories of gym class. At my house we call that Tuesday. Here's what's coming out this weekend:

The Brave One
What's It All About: Jodie Foster stars as a victim of a brutal assault that leaves her boyfriend dead. Not believing the police will be able to solve the case, she sets out to avenge the crime herself.
Why It Might Do Well:
Oscar-winner Foster is joined by Oscar-nominated Terrence Howard and Emmy-nominated Naveen Andrews (he's very cool on Lost), making for a cast worth watching.
Why It Might Not Do Well: Kevin Bacon's similarly themed Death Sentence died at the box office (proving that revenge is NOT a dish best served with bacon) so The Brave One may suffer a similar fate.
Number of Theaters: 2,700
Prediction:
$15 million

Dragon Wars
What's It All About: Ancient prophecies are fulfilled and big nasty beasties with scales and pointy teeth lay waste to Los Angeles.
Why It Might Do Well: With all the buzz generated by the Cloverfield trailer (a.k.a. 1-18-08) it seems the public is in the mood for some kaiju-style devastation.
Why It Might Not Do Well: No star power to speak of, but then that never stopped Godzilla and his scaly pals.
Number of Theaters: 2,000
Prediction: $7 million

Mr. Woodcock
What's It All About: Seann William Scott (he who will always be Stifler) learns to his horror that his mother is about to marry Mr. Woodcock (Billy Bob Thornton), the sadistic gym teacher from his childhood.
Why It Might Do Well: Balls of Fury -- another film with a lame double entendre title that refers to male genitalia -- made it into the top five last week, so why not this one?
Why It Might Not Do Well:
This looks a lot like Thornton's character from School For Scoundrels, and I've rarely seen Scott stray far from the character he played in American Pie. I don't need more of either.
Number of Theaters: 2,200
Prediction: $8 million

The predictions are getting tougher each week as surefire blockbusters become fewer and farther between. Here's how I think this coming weekend will go.
1. The Brave One
2. 3:10 to Yuma
3. Mr. Woodcock
4. Dragon Wars
5. Halloween


Participation in our weekly box office competition was down last week. Come on, people, don't shy away just because the game got more challenging. Here's last week's results:

1. Bubba8193: 16
2. Ted W: 12
3. Matt: 10
4. Micah Claire: 8
5. Anna07: 7
5. Porcalina: 7
5. Gregory Rubinstein: 7
6. Ray: 4

Here's how the competition works:

Please post your prediction in the comments section below before 5:00PM on Saturday. One point for every top five movie correctly named, two points for every correct placement, and one extra point for the top movie.

Box Office: Resurrecting the Bean Diaries

The power of the adolescent libido and the need for a good laugh were proven when the teen sex romp Superbad outdid all the competition on its opening weekend. Rush Hour 3 and The Bourne Ultimatum covered the two and three spots, with the fourth-place The Simpsons Movie clinging to the top five for the fourth consecutive week. When all was said and done, this is what the final tally looked like.

1. Superbad: $31.2 million.
2. Rush Hour 3: $21.8 million.
3. The Bourne Ultimatum: $19 million.
4. The Simpsons Movie: $6.7 million.
5. The Invasion: $6 million.

There are six five new contenders this week for the top five positions, so the competition should be fierce. Here's what coming out on the weekend of August 24.

Mr. Bean's Holiday
What's It All About:
Rowan Atkinson returns as the little-spoken Mr. Bean, who wins a church raffle for a vacation in Cannes, France.
Why It Might Do Well: Even if I've always preferred his Black Adder series to Mr. Bean, Atkinson is a comic genius.
Why It Might Not Do Well: 1997's Bean scored only $2.2 million on its opening weekend, (though it should be noted that was for a limited release of only 242 theaters) and the British style of humor may not sit well with mainstream U.S. audiences.
Number of Theaters: 1,580
Prediction: $9 million.

The Nanny Diaries

What's It All About:
In this film based on the novel by Emma McLaughlin, Scarlett Johansson stars as a young woman hired to care for the child of a snooty New York City couple.
Why It Might Do Well: Paul Giamatti plays the upper crust dad, and he's always worth watching (Big Momma's House notwithstanding), and it should appeal to those who like their comedy on the heartwarming side. Ms. Johansson captured my heart in Lost in Translation, and I'm always game to see what she's up to next.
Why It Might Not Do Well: That booger-eating joke in the trailer was enough to keep me away.
Number of Theaters: 1,800
Prediction: $8 million

Resurrecting the Champ
What's It All About:
Josh Hartnett plays a sports reporter who discovers a boxing legend (Samuel L. Jackson) living on the streets.
Why It Might Do Well: Dude, it's Sam Jackson, and the film is sporting an 85% fresh rating over at rottentomatoes.com.
Why It Might Not Do Well: The title may fool the general public into thinking this is the world's first zombie boxing movie.
Number of Theaters: 1,550
Prediction: $11 million

September Dawn

What's It All About:
A romantic drama set against the backdrop of the 1857 Mountain Meadows Massacre, which involved the deaths of over 100 California-bound Arkansas emigrants in southwestern Utah at the hands of Mormon settlers.
Why It Might Do Well: Jon Voight makes one scary-ass religious zealot.
Why It Might Not Do Well: Again, Jon Voight makes one scary-ass religious zealot.
Number of Theaters: 850
Prediction:
$7.5 million

WAR
What's It All About:
War? Huh. Good God y'all. An FBI agent hunts down the assassin who killed his partner.
Why It Might Do Well: Things blow up and with Jet Li in the cast you can bet there will be spinning back kicks aplenty.
Why It Might Not Do Well: When I heard Jason Statham say "They killed my partner!" or words to that effect in the trailer, my cliché alarm went off and refuses to stop buzzing.
Number of Theaters: 2,200
Prediction: $15.5 million

Here's how I reckon next weekend will turn out:
1. Superbad
2. The Bourne Ultimatum
3. War
4. Rush Hour 3
5. Resurrecting the Champ


Here's how the last week's competition ended up:
1. Matt: 12
1. Curt: 12
1. Porcalina: 12
1. Gregory Rubinstein: 12
1. Paul D: 12
1. Bubba8193: 12
1. El Borracho: 12
1. Withasong: 12
1. Andre: 12
2. Josh: 11
3. Anna07: 10
3. Rufus: 10
3. Mario: 10
4. Ethan Stanislawski: 8
4. Jasonsmusicpage: 8
4. Ray 8
5. Mike: 7
5. Blair: 7
5. Tangoeco: 7

Please post your prediction for the top five films in the comments section below before 5:00 PM on Saturday. One point for every top five movie correctly named, two points for every correct placement, and one extra point for the top movie. Come on, make us proud.

Box Office: Ultimate Underdog

As expected, The Simpsons Movie ruled the box office with a yellow-tinted iron fist, taking in more than the rest of the top five combined, outdoing second place film I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry by $55 million and exceeding my personal prediction by almost $7 million. I hadn't expected any of the other new movies to break the top five, but No Reservations pulled in a modestly surprising $11.7 million to grab the number five spot. Here's the final tally:

1. The Simpsons Movie: $71,850,000
2. I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry: $19,063,000
3. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix: $17,065,000
4. Hairspray: $15,550,000
5. No Reservations: $11,755,000

This week's new movies involve a flying dog, talking dolls, a klutzy stunt man, a salsa king and Matt Damon. Here's what we've got:

The Bourne Ultimatum
What's It All About:
Matt Damon returns in his third outing as rogue agent and amnesiac Jason Bourne, trying to learn his true identity once and for all.
Why It Might Do Well: The first two films in the franchise pulled in $27 million and $52 million respectively on their opening weekends, and since the Bourne Ultimatum is the obvious big gun this week, I suspect the trend will continue.
Why It Might Not Do Well: Could Jason Bourne's luck have finally run out? No, I didn't think so either.
Number of Theaters: 3,500
Prediction: $65 million.

Bratz
What's It All About:
In this live action film based on a line of fashion dolls, four girls enter high school and discover the meaning of peer pressure and loyalty.
Why It Might Do Well: Teenage girls looking for more of what Mean Girls had to offer may like this one.
Why It Might Not Do Well: Target demo seems awfully small.
Number of Theaters: 1,700
Prediction: $5.5 million

El Cantante
What's It All About:
Biopic of Hector Lavoe, the salsa king. Not a snack food magnate, but a singer of salsa music. Marc Anthony and Jennifer Lopez star.
Why It Might Do Well:
Based as it is on true events, El Cantante offers a genuine alternative to what's out there.
Why It Might Not Do Well: The relatively small release combined with the 18% rating over at rottentomatoes.com suggests that this one will not be raking it in.
Number of Theaters: 600
Prediction: $3 million

Hot Rod

What's It All About:
Comedy about a motorcycle stunt man wannabe played by Andy Samberg who plans to jump fifteen buses to raise money for an operation that will save the life of his abusive stepfather.
Why It Might Do Well: The adorable Isla Fisher (the crazy one from Wedding Crashers) for one thing, plus there are some genuine laughs in the trailer for those into broad physical comedy.
Why It Might Not Do Well: I believe there was a motorcycle stunt in The Simpsons Movie, so that quota may be filled for this year.
Number of Theaters: 2,500
Prediction: $11 million

Underdog

What's It All About:
In this reinvention of the classic cartoon, a dog receives super powers and the ability to talk in a lab accident.
Why It Might Do Well: Jason Lee is the voice of Underdog and a funny guy. Nostalgia appeal will also work in the film's favor.
Why It Might Not Do Well: The aforementioned nostalgia may be tempered by the fact that this new version is pretty far removed from the cartoon's original concept.
Number of Theaters: 2,800
Prediction: $16 million

This week I'm piercing the veil of time by reading tea leaves, or at least that was the original plan. I tossed back several bottles of Snapple before I realized that kind of tea doesn't have leaves, so I just asked my cousin Frank how he thought this weekend's box office might go:
1. The Bourne Ultimatum
2. The Simpsons Movie
3. Underdog
4. Hot Rod
5. I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry


Last Week's Prediction Rankings
1. Matt: 13
1. Evan: 13
1. Marc: 13
1. Gian1414: 13
1. Opp-Neg: 13
1. Anna07: 13
2. Bubba8193: 12
3. Jason: 10
4. Ness265: 9
4. ElBoracho: 9
4. Ray: 9
4. Josh: 9
4. JimRM: 9
4. Chris: 9
4. Mario: 9
5. Dustin: 7
5. Rufus: 7
5. Curt: 7
5. Lostpicks: 7
6. Gordy: 6

We had a pretty decent response to last week's box office prediction contest, but I'm hoping for more this time around. Come on, you know you want to. No prizes, of course, but I think that would sully the whole experience, don't you? Don't forget to post your prediction for the top five films in the comments section below. One point for every top five movie correctly named, two points for every correct placement, and one extra point for the top movie.

Box Office: Hairy and Larry

Apparently the first trick they teach the students at Hogwarts School of Witchcraft and Wizardry is how to conjure up enough money to choke a hippogriff. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix set a new record for a Wednesday opening with $44 million, and taking in $139.7 million as of Sunday. Last week's other newcomer Captivity finished in 12th place, taking in a mere $1.4 million dollars. With Hostel Part 2 also experiencing lackluster box office numbers, might this indicate that the torture horror fad has ended? I suppose the real test of that will come when the fourth installment of the reliably successful Saw franchise hacks its way into theaters this October.

Once the smoke cleared, here's how the weekend looked:
1. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix $77.1 million
2. Transformers
$37 million
3. Ratatouille $18 million
4. Live Free or Die Hard
$11.2 million
5. License to Wed
$7.3 million

This weekend's premieres look to be more reserved than previous weeks, with not a robot, super hero or wizard in sight.

Hairspray
What's It All About:
An adaptation of the Broadway musical that was itself based on John Waters' 1988 film, Hairspray is about an overweight girl's obsession with a TV dance show. The impressive cast includes John Travolta, Queen Latifah, Michelle Pfeiffer, Christopher Walken and Amanda Bynes.
Why It Might Do Well: Rotten Tomatoes is giving this a 100% Fresh rating and I, like many Americans, have a morbid fascination with the idea of John Travolta playing an obese woman.
Why It Might Not Do Well: A musical is a tough sell these days.
Number of Theaters: 3,000
Prediction: $20 million

I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry
What's It All About:
Adam Sandler and Kevin James star as a pair of straight firefighters who pretend to be gay so they can register as domestic partners which will allow James' character to name his children as beneficiaries on his life insurance. One can only assume there will be merry mix-ups.
Why It Might Do Well:
Knocked Up has done amazingly well this summer, pulling in $138.2 million so far, so the time may be right for another quirky relationship comedy, and both stars have proven they know how to make people laugh. And lest we forget, we get to see Jessica Biel in her underwear.
Why It Might Not Do Well: A plot that sounds like a sitcom episode.
Number of Theaters: 3,200
Prediction:
$28 million

My method of prediction this week involves casting bones. Unfortunately, the only bones I had available were some KFC leftovers and it's gotten a bit messy in here. Needless to say, the wife is not pleased, but I suspect the coming weekend will go something like this:
1 Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix
2 I Now Pronounce You Chuck and Larry
3 Transformers
4 Hairspray
5 Ratatouille


Last Week's Prediction Ranking
1. Matt: 16
1. Anna07: 16
1. Bubba8193: 16
1. Ray: 16
2. The 13th: 13
2. Bradley Thom: 13
2. Chris: 13
2. Gregory Rubinstein: 13
3. NPC:12
4. Edgeoforever: 10

If you want to join in on our friendly box office prediction competition (and I hope you do), don't forget to post your prediction for the top five films in the comments section below. One point for every top five movie correctly named, two points for every correct placement, and one extra point for the top movie.

Box Office: The Captive Phoenix

Unless you've been summering on the planet Cybertron you're probably aware that Transformers kicked some chrome-plated butt over the 4th of July Holiday, making a grand total of $155.4 million from its opening on July 3 through last weekend, and going on to make $165 million as of July 9. This sets a record for the biggest opening week for a non-sequel, an honor previously held by the first installment of the Spider-man franchise. The other new contender from last week, the Robin Williams comedy License to Wed also opened on the third, pulling in $17.8 million so far.

Here's last weekend's top five:
1. Transformers $70.5 million
2. Ratatouille $29 million
3. Live Free or Die Hard $17.7 million
4. License to Wed $10.4 million
5. Evan Almighty $8.7 million

This weekend we'll see some magical shenanigans at Hogwarts School of Witchcraft and Wizardry, and some much darker deeds being committed in the noble pursuit of scaring the bejesus out of the audience. Here's what's coming:

Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix
What's It All About:
This adaptation of the fifth novel in the hugely popular Harry Potter series sees Harry (Daniel Radcliffe) and Dumbledore's (Michael Gambon) warnings that Lord Voldemort has returned falling upon deaf ears, and the toad-faced Dolores Umbridge (Imelda Staunton) seizes power at Hogwart's.
Why It Might Do Well: The series' previous installment, Harry Potter and the Goblet of Fire took in $102.6 million on opening weekend, and the one before that, Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban, had a $93.6 million dollar open. With the final novel in the series, Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, seeing publication this month, the Potter publicity machine has been turned up to a Spinal Tap-esque 11.
Why It Might Not Do Well: Unless Hagrid has a nude scene, I honestly don't see this happening, though with Transformers in only its second week, Order of the Phoenix may not quite reach the numbers of its predecessors.
Number of Theaters: 4,285
Prediction:
$95 million

Captivity
What's It All About: Elisha Cuthbert plays a fashion model who is kidnapped and forced to endure weeks of grueling torture at the hands of an obsessed stalker.
Why It Might Do Well: The use of some highly controversial ads (click here for the full story) got this flick in hot water with the Motion Picture Association of America, and since there is no such thing as bad publicity I'm sure there are lots of folks who are curious to see what it's all about.
Why It Might Not Do Well: Based on the disappointing box office numbers for Hostel Part II (only $8.2 million on its opening weekend), the ship may have sailed on the torture/horror trend.
Number of Theaters: 1,500
Prediction:
$6 million

Although I managed a perfect score on last weekend's top five prediction (as did several of our readers) it won't be going to my head, particularly since I finished dead last the week before. Sometimes the magic works, sometimes it doesn't. This week Doc Brown took his DeLorean a few days into the future (either that, or he drove down to Tijuana) and brought back the following prediction:

1. Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix
2. Transformers
3. Ratatouille
4. Live Free or Die Hard
5. License to Wed

Last Week's Prediction Ranking
1. Matt: 16
1. The 13th: 16
1. Gregory R. Rubinstein: 16
1. Dylsan: 16
1. Chris: 16
1. Mario: 16
1. Bubba8193: 16
1. Ray: 16
2. Ethan Stanislawski: 13
3. Paul D: 12
3. Brad: 12
3. Opp-Neg: 12
3. Bradley Thom: 12
3. Anna07: 12

As always 5:00PM on Saturday is the cut-off for entries in our weekly box office prediction contest. One point for every top five movie correctly named, two points for every correct placement, and one extra point for the top movie.

Box Office Prediction: The Almighty Stephen King

The bankability of superhero flicks was proven once again this past weekend, with Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer taking the number one spot on its opening weekend and pushing Ocean's 13 down to number two. Sleeper hit Knocked Up refused to budge from its number three position and may require a Caesarean section. Here's last weekend's top five:

1. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer: $57.4 million
2. Ocean's Thirteen: $19.1 million
3. Knocked Up: $14.5 million
4. Pirates of the Caribbean At World's End: $12 million
5. Surf's Up: $9.3 million

Six of the twelve people who made predictions on last weekend's box office, including yours truly, earned perfect scores. I won't be letting this early success go to my head since last week saw only two films going into wide release and Nancy Drew never struck me as Top 5 material. This coming weekend will see the arrival of three films that are very different from each other, making the competition all the more interesting. Here's what we've got:

1408
What's It About:
Based on a short story by the grand master of contemporary horror fiction Stephen King. John Cusack plays a debunker of paranormal phenomena who decides to spend a night in room 1408 of a New York City hotel, a room in which 56 mysterious deaths have occurred over the years, and no one has ever lasted more than an hour. Do you think anyone checked for a gas leak?
Why It Might Do Well: Cusack is joined by Samuel L. Jackson, an actor who automatically ups the cool level of any movie he's in, and even King himself liked this adaptation of his work.
Why It Might Not Do Well: Blowing a short story up to feature length requires a lot of padding, so how much of the author's work is left? Also, this summer's last big horror release Hostel II took a box office bath, so maybe audiences aren't looking for scares just now.
Number of Theaters: 2,500
Prediction: $50 million

Evan Almighty
What's It About: In this comedic sequel to Bruce Almighty, God (Morgan Freeman) commands Congressman Evan Baxter (Steve Carell) to build an ark in preparation for a great flood.
Why It Might Do Well: Carell is one funny S.O.B who proved with The 40-Year-Old-Virgin (which pulled in $109 million domestic) that he can carry a film to big box-office numbers.
Why It Might Not Do Well: Reviews have not been promising, with the film scoring only 27% on Rotten Tomatoes.
Number of Theaters:
3,500
Prediction: $25 million

A Mighty Heart
What's It About: Based on true events, Angelina Jolie plays Mariane Pearl, wife of Wall Street Journal reporter Daniel Pearl who was kidnapped and eventually murdered while tracking down a story in Karachi, Pakistan.
Why It Might Do Well: Angelina Jolie is still very much on the A List, and the film looks like a thought-provoking alternative to everything else out there.
Why It Might Not Do Well: Summer movies are traditionally big on fun and fluff, which definitely does not describe this serious human drama.
Number of Theaters: 1,350 (considerably fewer than this week's other two releases)
Prediction:
$8 million

Since my garage-sale crystal ball did so well for me last week, once again I will use it to peer into the future. I find I get the best reception while standing on my coffee table while wearing an aluminum foil helmet and with Roger Ebert's Movie Yearbook 2005 tucked under one arm. Go figure. Here's my prediction for the coming weekend:

1. 1408
2. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer
3. Evan Almighty
4. Knocked Up
5. Pirates of the Caribbean At World's End

Last Week's Prediction Rankings:
1. Matt: 16
1. Opp-Neg: 16
1. Chris: 16
1. Brad B: 16
1. Ray: 16
1. Bubba8193: 16
7. Tangoeco: 12
7. Gregory Rubenstein: 12
7. Tigerfan2014: 12
10. Los118: 11
11. Mario: 9
12. Ethan Stanislawski: 7

As always, please post your box office predictions by 5:00 PM on Saturday. One point for every top five movie correctly named, two points for every correct placement, and one extra point for the top movie. Make me proud, people.

Box Office Prediction: This is Fantastic

For the first time in weeks the box office top five was free of arachnids, with Spider-man 3 crawling its way off the list entirely, and Danny Ocean and his charming cadre of thieves from Ocean's 13 stole the top spot from that other set of bandits in Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End. Hostel II surprised some people by pulling in a mere $8 million, showing that folks seem to be more in the mood for laughs and some swashbuckling rather than a bolt-cutter to the toes. Here are the numbers for last weekend:

1. Ocean's Thirteen: $37.1 million
2. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End: $21.3 million
3. Knocked Up: $20 million
4. Surf's Up: $18 million
5. Shrek the Third: $15.8 million


Comics fans lamenting the wallcrawler's departure from the top five should take solace in knowing that this weekend will see the premiere of another comic book sequel. Let's take a look.

Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer
What It's About: The super powered quartet from 2005's Fantastic Four return to protect the world from a silver clad surfer dude from the stars, and the team's arch nemesis Dr. Doom returns to stir up his own brand of evil as well.
Why It Might Do Well: This flick easily had the coolest trailer of all the summer blockbusters, featuring a scene of The Human Torch (Chris Evans) chasing the Silver Surfer (Doug Jones) across the New York City skyline. although that may be my inner comic book geek talking. The first film in the franchise had a $56 million opening weekend before going on to gross $155 million domestic, so it's reasonable to assume a lot of those ticket buyers will be back for more. Also, Spider-man 3's record breaking numbers demonstrate that comic book adaptations are still hot. Finally, a film's box office figures will NEVER be negatively effected by the presence of Jessica Alba in a form-fitting costume composed of unstable molecules.
Why It Might Not Do Well: Elektra proved that a film adaptation of a Marvel Comics character isn't necessarily a license to print money.
Prediction: $60 million

Nancy Drew
What It's About:
Based on a series of young adult mystery novels, Nancy Drew tells the tale of a small town girl detective (Emma Roberts) accompanying her father on a business trip to Los Angeles. While there, Nancy uncovers evidence in a long unsolved case involving a murdered movie star.
Why It Might Do Well: While I've never read the books, a character that has been in print since 1930 must have something going for her.
Why It Might Not Do Well: With Pirates, Shrek and Surf's Up still out there, there's some stiff competition for the family film dollar. The trailer makes this one look like a de-fanged version of Mean Girls, and braving the summer movie season without star power is the tough way to go.
Prediction: $4 million

I've dusted off my crystal ball, spritzed it with Windex, and glanced at this coming weekend's box office top five (PLEASE NOTE: Crystal ball is no longer under warranty, has been dropped several times, and usually the best I can get out of it are Bonanza reruns, so judge these results accordingly.):

1. Fantastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer
2. Ocean's 13
3. Knocked Up
4. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
5. Surf's Up



Last Week's Prediction Rankings
1. Rob: 16
2. Brody: 12
2. Bubba8193: 12
2. Gilbert Davis: 12
2. Tangoeco: 12
6. Patricia: 10
7. Chris: 9
7. Lyz: 9
9. Mario: 7
9. Opp-Neg: 7
9. Dylsan: 7
9. Goulet: 7

Don't forget, predictions for this week's box office top five need to be in by 5:00PM on Saturday. Good luck to all.

Audiences Hostile to 'Hostel II' At Box Office

Although it opened pretty wide, on over 2,300 screens, Hostel: Part II failed to connect with audiences on its opening weekend, pulling in only $8.7 million for a sixth place finish, behind the box-office leader Ocean's 13, the second place finisher, Knocked Up, and three other films. There's no danger of the film not making its budget back, which was pretty small, but it seems that unless the film has some serious legs, it won't be considered a worthy follow-up to its predecessor when the final numbers are tallied. (The first Hostel raked in $47 million at the domestic box office, despite a budget of only $5 million.) If that proves to be the case, this will be the second film in two months -- the first being Grindhouse -- to be smacked down by a national audience in spite of seeming like a home run.

Whether or not Hostel: Part II underperforms, it probably won't affect Eli Roth's immediate plans -- he apparently has no interest in returning to the well for a third Hostel. Instead, he's going to be mounting an adaptation of Stephen King's Cell and putting out a movie made up entirely of trailers, called Trailer Trash. At a Q&A last week, he told the crowd he was even including Howard Stern in the trailer movie -- they're going to make a trailer for his never-made project, Fartman. Roth also said he didn't yet know which project he'd shoot first -- Trailer Trash or Cell. We'll be posting a full report on the talk soon.

Box Office Prediction: Heists, Ice and Vice

As a wise man (that'd be Steve Malkmus, lead singer of Pavement) once said, "Aloha means goodbye, and also hello; it is in how you inflect." Which is my way of telling you that this is my last box office prediction for a while -- please! try to hold back your tears! -- because, starting next week, I'll be handing the reins over to the lovely and talented Matt Bradshaw. Treat him good. One thing I do know: His prediction percentage is bound to be better than mine, which I believe hovered around 3 percent.

Last week:

1. Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End - $43.2 million
2. Knocked Up - $29.3 million
3. Shrek the Third - $26.7 million

4. Mr. Brooks - $10 million

5. Spider-Man 3 - $7.5 million

Our winners: Chris and Ray, both of whom alertly picked the hilarious Knocked Up to slide past Shrek for the number 2 spot -- though pretty much nobody foresaw that Kevin Costner, Serial Killer, would wind up playing so well in Peoria. Anyway, mad props to Chris and Ray, neither of whom, I am sure, resemble Robin Williams' knuckles. (And if you didn't get that reference, go see Knocked Up.)

George Clooney in Ocean's ThirteenOcean's Thirteen
What It's About: The boys are back in town -- Vegas, that is -- and this time they're out for revenge. Reuben (Elliott Gould), having been screwed over and pretty much bankrupted by hotelier Willie Banks (Al Pacino, looking very bronze), suffers a heart attack and is catatonic; so Danny (George Clooney), Rusty (Brad Pitt) and the rest hatch a plan to put Banks' new hotel and casino out of business.
Why It Might Do Well: If the cast of Ocean's doesn't define "starpower," then I don't know what does. All the actors from the incredibly popular first two films (sans Julia Roberts and Catherine Zeta-Jones) return, and, like Ocean's Eleven, this movie's more fun than oughta be legal.
Why It Might Not Do Well: We're in the thick of summer blockbuster season now, and competition's fierce: Pirates is still doing strong, and it'll pull more of a family crowd than Ocean's. Also, it's possible that those who were disappointed by Ocean's Twelve may not have forgiven Steven Soderbergh yet. (Me, I kind of haven't forgiven him for Bubble, but that's another story.)
Prediction: $40 million

Continue reading Box Office Prediction: Heists, Ice and Vice

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