It was certainly an exciting year for wireless. Apple (NASDAQ: AAPL)'s iPhone was a game changer, there were some big announcements from Google (NASDAQ: GOOG), and even Nokia (NYSE: NOK) made an impressive comeback.
As for 2008, it's a good bet we'll continue to see some big headlines.
I interviewed Frank Dickson, who is the chief research officer at MultiMedia Intelligence. According to him:
The handset as a platform: The introduction of the iPhone was the first example of this. It did not create the trend, but it did add fuel to the fire. Google's Android and a rumored Java-based OS are elements of the developing trend. Essentially, we are seeing the rise of a new class of mobile devices that are applications centric with voice functionality. These devices are internet browsers, music players, text messengers, and e-mail devices. Yes, they still make voice calls, but they are clearly optimized for other uses. Operators such as Verizon Wireless (NYSE: VZ) are seeing the coming explosion of this product class and have embraced it by opening their networks to these devices.
Exobyte Era arrives: An exobyte is equal to five times the size of all the printed matter in the history of the world. By 2001, there will be 30 exobytes worth of network traffic on a monthly basis. Essentially, video is filling what was once dark fiber and is driving a new build-out of internet infrastructure. The promises of 2000 are beginning to be realized; it just took eight years for the business models to catch up with the dreams.
The lines blur between hardware providers and service providers: A number of companies are leveraging their positions in the ecosystem into launched new offerings. Apple is most noteworthy of these, moving from a content distributor and platform provider to becoming a maker of handsets. Nokia has made huge investments to move from a position of a handset vendors to one of becoming an total experience provider. Operators, fearing the prospect of losing ARPU (average revenue per user) and becoming bandwidth providers, are fighting back with compelling content offerings and branding white label handsets.
Continued failure of the MVNO model: The MVNO is a novel concept, but it is a concept that seems to fail economics. Amp'd Mobile has declared bankruptcy. Disney Mobile and XE Mobile also ended their services. Helio has shaky prospects at best. In the economic Darwinism, with market players focusing on and leveraging their core competencies, the MVNO seems to be a victim of a lack of significant distinctiveness and added value.
Tom Taulli is the author of various books, including The Complete M&A Handbook and The Edgar Online Guide to Decoding Financial Statements
. He also operates DealProfiles.com.