May 11, 2008

Week in Review #19 (2008-05-11)

Apologies to the many that write but have to go without answers. When you are taking a break, as I am, there are only so many hours to blog.

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Posted by Bill Cara on May 11, 2008 05:04:21 PM
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May 10, 2008

Bill Cara's Community Chat, Sat., May 10, 2008, 8:15am ET

Today is time for some R&R; as I'll be flying out either to the Berries or Andros (depends on the wind) to enjoy a day there. The Family Islands of The Bahamas are incredibly beautiful.

This country covers some 700 islands over 100,000 square miles. It is much more than a Cable Beach/Paradise Island casino resort.

Enjoy your day. ADDENDUM

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Posted by Bill Cara on May 10, 2008 08:15:07 AM
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Daily Report for Sat, May 10, 2008

Markets Re-cap

The worse-than-expected Q1 loss from AIG (AIG) and another record for Crude Oil pulled down the DJIA (-120.90), S&P; 500 (-9.40), and Nasdaq (-5.72) on Friday.

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Posted by Bill Cara on May 10, 2008 08:08:16 AM
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May 9, 2008

Bill Cara's Community Chat, Fri., May 9, 2008, 8:38am ET

Whether the largest insurance company is in the US (like AIG) or Europe (like Allianz), or claiming the problems are sub-prime related (like AIG) or something to do with holdings of commercial and investment banks, as says Allianz, it is clear the industry is in trouble and management is not expecting a quick end to the crisis.

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Posted by Bill Cara on May 9, 2008 08:38:58 AM
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Daily Report for Fri, May 09, 2008

Markets Re-cap

Positive April chain store sales from Wal-Mart (WMT), Costco (COST), and McDonalds (MCD) boosted hopes Thursday, taking the DJIA (+52.43 +0.41%) to 12867, S&P; 500 +5.11 +0.37%) to 1398, and NASDAQ Composite (+12.75 +0.52%) to 2451.

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Posted by Bill Cara on May 9, 2008 08:18:08 AM
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May 8, 2008

Bill Cara's Community Chat, Thurs., May 8, 2008, 9:15am ET

Combining an expert’s working knowledge of capital markets with the attributes of true independence and objectivity, I among too few of my peers am driven by a personal duty to society and the improvement of social equity. In that regard, I proudly direct your attention to “The Story of Deep Capture” - by Mark Mitchell.

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Posted by Bill Cara on May 8, 2008 09:15:05 AM
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Daily Report for Thu, May 08, 2008

Markets Re-cap

With a focus on problems with energy cost driven inflation and a shaky financial services sector (XLF -3.6%), the DJIA (-206 -1.61% to 12814), S&P; 500 (-26 -1.81% to 1393), and NASDAQ Composite (-45 -1.84% to 2438) were trounced on Wednesday.

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Posted by Bill Cara on May 8, 2008 09:10:10 AM
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May 7, 2008

Bill Cara's Community Chat, Wed., May 7, 2008, 8:05am ET

Bill Gates says that the three-month attempt by Microsoft (MSFT) to acquire Yahoo (YHOO) is over. Maybe he means it when he says the company will pursue an internal strategy to develop their advertiser-driven search business. If so, why didn’t they start on that project years ago?

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Posted by Bill Cara on May 7, 2008 08:05:57 AM
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Daily Report for Wed, May 07, 2008

Markets Re-cap

Tuesday started weak with UBS (UBS) announcing major staff cuts and a $12 billion operating loss [See ADDENDUM]. That was followed by Fannie Mae (FNM) reporting its third straight quarterly loss, cutting its dividend, and announcing the need for a $6 billion capital raise. Throughout the session, additional pressure came from soaring commodity prices.

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Posted by Bill Cara on May 7, 2008 08:03:01 AM
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May 6, 2008

Bill Cara's Community Chat, Tues., May 6, 2008, 8:48am ET

You know the expression “B.S. baffles brains”? When behavior and mind head off in different directions -- when the B.S. becomes overwhelming -- we get stressed out. I feel that way at present. You may laugh but a large part of it comes from bankers and I have zero debt.

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Posted by Bill Cara on May 6, 2008 08:48:33 AM
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Daily Report for Tue, May 06, 2008

Markets Re-cap

On Monday, despite some positive macroeconomic news, the broad market trended lower because of soaring commodity prices.

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Posted by Bill Cara on May 6, 2008 08:45:45 AM
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May 4, 2008

Week in Review #18 (2008-05-04)

Home-owners in 2004 would not have been pushed into selling during those high-flying years just because they were alarmed at the expanding debt bubble that was hoisting real-estate prices to the moon. Neither should traders in 2Q08 want to sell stocks just because they worry that central bankers are out of control.

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Posted by Bill Cara on May 4, 2008 07:18:38 AM
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May 3, 2008

Bill Cara's Community Chat, Sat., May 3, 2008, 5:22am ET

Since this is a travel weekend, I plan to write the WIR today and have it published early Sunday before returning to The Bahamas. Earlier this morning I added the following text to yesterday’s Community Chat:

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Posted by Bill Cara on May 3, 2008 05:22:27 AM
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May 2, 2008

Bill Cara's Community Chat, Fri., May 2, 2008, 8:00am ET

As in Edward Norton’s portrayal of Eisenheim, a magician in turn-of-the-20th-century Vienna [The Illusionist, 2006], there was a bit of voodoo stuff happening in the market this week, and yesterday and this morning in particular.

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Posted by Bill Cara on May 2, 2008 08:00:51 AM
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Daily Report for Fri, May 02, 2008

Markets Re-cap

As the commodity trade has been unwinding this week, the $USD has firmed. Yesterday, Consumer Discretionary (XLY +5.8%), Tech (XLK +4.2%) and Financials (XLF +3.4%) helped push the broad market indexes higher in New York.

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Posted by Bill Cara on May 2, 2008 03:30:02 AM
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May 1, 2008

Bill Cara's Community Chat, Thurs., May 1, 2008, 8:43am ET

The city of Sao Paulo Brazil was hot, hot, hot yesterday. From pork and poultry to pulp and paper, planes to pension plans and banking, beer, nickel and steel, and of course oil, the Brazilian 8 of the Cara 100 was up an average of +5.7%.

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Posted by Bill Cara on May 1, 2008 08:43:43 AM
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Daily Report for Thu, May 01, 2008

Markets Re-cap

As expected, the FOMC cut the Fed funds rate -25 basis points. The run-up to the 2:15pm announcement (12958 on the DJIA, 869 on $GOLD at 2:15pm ET), later turned into selling of stocks, except for the goldminers, which rallied.

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Posted by Bill Cara on May 1, 2008 08:30:02 AM
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April 30, 2008

Bill Cara's Community Chat, Wed., Apr. 30, 2008, 8:25am ET

Do you recall: “29 Feb 2008 ... at February 29, 2008 6:26 PM. Pat sent out close to 200 Goldcorp reports today.”

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Posted by Bill Cara on April 30, 2008 08:25:23 AM
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Daily Report for Wed, Apr 30, 2008

Markets Re-cap

Tuesday, like Monday, was quiet in the capital market as traders await the Federal Reserve Bank decision on monetary policy at 2:15pm ET today. The general view is that the Fed will drop its key lending rate by -25 basis points and make some announcement that the economy and the banking system are apparently relatively stable after their earlier rate cuts; the hope in Washington is that traders will accept this report.

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Posted by Bill Cara on April 30, 2008 08:20:02 AM
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April 29, 2008

Bill Cara's Community Chat, Tues., Apr. 29, 2008, 8:03am ET

Early this morning I watched television coverage of the Bank of England Governor Mervyn King testimony to the UK government Treasury Committee. There was some talk of a much-needed Basel III Accord as well as the role of the central bank, including the issue of moral hazard.

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Posted by Bill Cara on April 29, 2008 08:03:53 AM
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Daily Report for Tue, Apr 29, 2008

Markets Re-cap

Monday was a quiet day in the capital market as traders are awaiting the Federal Reserve Bank to hold its monetary policy meetings today and tomorrow.

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Posted by Bill Cara on April 29, 2008 07:53:52 AM
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April 28, 2008

Bill Cara's Community Chat, Mon., Apr. 28, 2008, 8:24am ET

Some things to think about when starting your week: rebates, airlines, oil, food, international economies, politics, and market information.

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Posted by Bill Cara on April 28, 2008 08:24:49 AM
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April 27, 2008

Week in Review #17 (2008-04-27)

“Bubble, bubble, oil and trouble” is the heading of this week’s Econoday International Perspective. That’s a good start, but there are many more problems than just oil and its ripple effect.

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Posted by Bill Cara on April 27, 2008 05:55:43 PM
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April 26, 2008

Daily Report for Sat, Apr 26, 2008

Markets Re-cap

There is a growing disconnect between worsening macro-economic picture, with no reversal in sight, and general bullishness on Wall Street.

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Posted by Bill Cara on April 26, 2008 03:28:52 PM
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Bill Cara's Community Chat, Sat., Apr. 26, 2008, 8:38am ET

I received a letter from Europe this morning that we can talk about.

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Posted by Bill Cara on April 26, 2008 08:38:03 AM
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April 25, 2008

Bill Cara's Community Chat, Fri., Apr. 25, 2008, 9:28am ET

Common sense tells me that higher inflation and slowing economies, which is the classic stagflation scenario, is now being recognized in Europe, UK and Japan, and that as a consequence those currencies are weakening against the US Dollar, with inevitable consequences for US equity markets.

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Posted by Bill Cara on April 25, 2008 09:28:24 AM
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Daily Report for Fri, Apr 25, 2008

Markets Re-cap

As the wheels have come off the economic engines in Germany, UK and Japan, suddenly the US Dollar has gained popularity. So, yesterday, despite terrible US housing data, the US Financials (XLF +3.60%) drove the DJIA (+85.73 +0.67% to 12849), S&P; 500 (+8.89 +0.64% to 1389), and NASDAQ (+23.71 +0.99% to 2429) higher.

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Posted by Bill Cara on April 25, 2008 09:06:01 AM
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April 24, 2008

Bill Cara's Community Chat, Thurs., Apr. 24, 2008, 8:11am ET

Yesterday, I signed a letter to securities regulators in Bahamas that I would take personal responsibility as chief compliance officer of my company. Later in the day I received the following notice: the US Department of Justice Launches New Law Enforcement Strategy to Combat Increasing Threat of International Organized Crime. Let the good fight begin.

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Posted by Bill Cara on April 24, 2008 08:11:30 AM
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Daily Report for Thu, Apr 24, 2008

Markets Re-cap

After a shaky start yesterday, the US equity markets pushed upwards: the DJIA (+43 +0.34% to 12763), S&P; 500 (+4 +0.29% to 1380), and NASDAQ Composite (+28 +1.19% to 2405) were lifted on the wings of Boeing (BA +4.5% to 82.09).

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Posted by Bill Cara on April 24, 2008 07:55:52 AM
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April 23, 2008

Bill Cara's Community Chat, Wed., Apr. 23, 2008, 8:30am ET

The strength in the Euro in the past few days has confounded me. Early yesterday morning, there was news of a collapse of Duesseldorfer Hypothekenbank (DUOGg.F) that was immediately backstopped by Germany's BdB banking association. That event spiked the Euro down for a brief time (I thought it would drop more) followed by two swift and powerful moves higher, hitting a record high.

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Posted by Bill Cara on April 23, 2008 08:30:03 AM
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