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Pennsylvania Ad Dump

A slew of Clintons ads have come out in PA.

First is "Falling Through":

And "Scanton":

And Gov. Rendell in "Spectacular":


Clinton, Obama Questions

A bit late on this, but here are the other two candidates' questions to Gen. Petraeus and Amb. Crocker:

And Obama, on the Foreign Relations Committee:

More videos in the Vlog.


PA Poll: Clinton Leads Obama, McCain

In a new Strategic Vision poll in Pennsylvania, Clinton holds slim leads over Obama in the Dem primary and McCain in a general election matchup.

Clinton 47 (-2 vs. last poll, March 28-31)
Obama 42 (+1)
Und 11

Clinton leads the RCP Average for Pennsylvania by 7.4 points

Clinton 45 - McCain 42
Obama 41 - McCain 48

In the RCP Head-to-Head Avgs in Pennsylvania, Clinton leads McCain by 3.7 points, and McCain leads Obama by 1.5 points



The Daily 2008

On this day in 1865 Gen. Robert E. Lee surrenders to Union forces under the command of Ulysses S. Grant at Appomattox. On to today's top stories:

"Petraeus's Iraq Proposal Is Likely to Roil Campaign" (Yochi Dreazen, Wall Street Journal) The gist of Gen Petraeus' and Amb. Crocker's testimony yesterday was that the U.S. should halt troop withdrawals after the last of the "surge" troops in Iraq leave in July. This means there likely will be something like 140,000 troops in Iraq throughout the presidential election. For the GOP, these troops will represent the continuation of an unpopular war; for the Dems, if Petraeus made anything clear it was that a timetable for withdrawal was not responsible.

"Petraeus in Crossfire of Political Campaigns" (David Jackson, USA Today) The three presidential candidates all had their opportunity to restate the importance of their particular policy proposal on Iraq, with Petraeus and Crocker the (unwilling) campaign audience. Crocker probably gave the best answer to all three: "This is hard, and this is complicated."

"Van Hollen: '08 Race Could Hurt the Party" (Aaron Blake, The Hill) The head of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee warned yesterday that the drawn out primary could hurt the party's chances down ticket. Chris Van Hollen's chief worry is that supporters of the primary loser would sit out the general election, and thereby endanger the party's majority in Congress.

"Democrats' Ads Flood Pa.; Poll Suggest Obama Gains" (Boston Globe Staff And Associated Press) With polls showing Obama quickly closing the gap with Clinton in this next big state, the presidential primary could be entering its final phase. Obama has outspent Clinton nearly 2-to-1 on ads and is getting help by the large SEIU union, which is conducting door-to-door canvassing.

"Pittsburgh's Young Mayor Wants City to Line Up Behind Clinton" (Eli Saslow, Washington Post) Even with Obama creeping up and with her campaign staff rocked with the demotion of Mark Penn, Clinton is rallying supporters, including Pittsburgh Mayor Luke Ravenstahl.

"West Virginia Senator Apologizes for Comments on McCain" (Kate Phillips, New York Times) Another day, another apology. This one is from Sen. Jay Rockefeller who, over the weekend, argued that McCain's history as a fighter pilot somehow made him indifferent to the problems of ordinary Americans.

"Superdelegates Pressured to Back Obama" (Associated Press) A coup of sorts occured among Virginia Democrats when 36 local party chairmen signed a petition urging the state's superdelegates to back Obama. But as with superdelegates elsewhere, many of those in Virginia are too wary to drop anyone just yet.

"Clintons Disagree Over a Free-Trade Pact With Colombia" (John Emshwiller and Bob Davis, Wall Street Journal) With protectionism running high among Democrats these days, Bill Clinton's legacy as a committed free-trader are in danger. But even while his wife opposes free trade pacts like the one with Colombia, husband Bill is backing down from his support for them.

"Obama Delegate Resigns After Remark" (Associated Press) Linda Ramirez-Sliwinski, who is an Obama delegate, found herself in the center of storm after she was arrested earlier this week for disorderly conduct. According to police, Ramirez-Sliwinski had described black children playing in a tree as "monkeys". She has stepped down from her delegate duties.

Get today's other election stories at RCP's Politics and Election page.


Lanny Spreads 'The Poison'

Clintonite Lanny Davis expresses his discomfort with Obama's relationship with Rev. Wright in the Wall Street Journal:

Some have suggested that any Clinton supporters who continue to raise this issue are "playing the race card" or taking the "low" road.

When I said on CNN recently that concerns about the Wright-Obama issue were "appropriate" to continue to be discussed, my friend Joe Klein of Time Magazine said, "Lanny, Lanny, you're spreading the poison right now" and that an "honorable person" would "stay away from this stuff."

Could Joe Klein provide any better example of the liberal elitist mindset and how disconnected it is from the real world? Rev. Wright is on tape spewing some pretty vile anti-American stuff from the pulpit, yet Klein accuses Davis of being the one "spreading the poison" for having the temerity to question whether it was appropriate for Barack Obama to sit silent in the pews of Trinity United for 20 years. You see, Joe Klein, in his infinite progressive wisdom, has declared this subject off limits, and apparently anyone who thinks otherwise is dishonorable, a bigot, a racist, or worse.

Davis continues with a fair warning to Klein and other Democrats:

Attacking the motives of those who feel this discomfort about Senator Obama's response or nonresponse to Reverend Wright's comments is not just unfair and wrong. It also misses the important electoral point about winning the general election in November: This issue is not going away. If many loyal, progressive Democrats remain troubled by this issue, then there must be even more unease among key swing voters - soft "Reagan Democrats," independents and moderate Republicans - who will decide the 2008 election.

Davis is probably overstating his case when he suggests "many loyal, progressive Democrats remain troubled by this issue." I don't think we've seen much evidence of that at all. In fact, the polls seem to indicate the opposite. But I do think Davis is correct when he warns about the potential fallout among Reagan Democrats and Independents, and he's absolutely right that the issue is not going away. As sure as the sun rises in the East, a Republican-leaning 527 is going to use Rev. Wright against Obama in the general.

This may offend Joe Klein's political sensibilities, but it's clearly within bounds. To most people, Obama's twenty year relationship with Rev. Wright (not to mention his long association with shady dealer Tony Rezko) goes directly to the question of Obama's much-touted judgment.

Were the shoe on the other foot, of course, and the issue was John McCain's close, two-decade long relationship with a right-wing preacher with a history of saying offensive things from the pulpit, Joe Klein would almost certainly find that a legitimate topic germane to McCain's presidential bid. And he would scoff at those who suggested discussing the matter constituted "spreading the poison."


The Greatest Show on Earth

Now that the Final Four's over, it's back to politics to entertain.

The Politico's "50 Greatest Political Moments," including the Pentagon Papers, that unfortunate Dukakis-in-a-tank photo, and "one of the most devastating sound bites in modern campaign history: 'I actually did vote for the $87 billion before I voted against it.'"

The Economist, meanwhile, is apparently tired of keeping a straight face: The magazine has teamed up with Chicago's Second City for "The Art of Political Satire."

And, in what may be the goofiest trend piece of the day, the New York Times examines the supposed power of the youth vote. Hint: It's trending Obama:


While politicians inevitably invoke children and the future, rarely have the political preferences of children themselves carried much weight with their elders. On the contrary: when baby boomer parents were the age their children are now, the ideological and social gap between generations was more pronounced. Parents were, by definition, authoritarian. Their children were, by definition, anti-.

But the sharp distinctions between generations have eroded. Parents now are exponentially more entwined with their offspring, inclined to place their children's emotional well-being ahead of their own. Even when students live away at college, many parents call them and send text messages every day..

For some waffling primary voters, the relentless push by their children was good enough reason to capitulate. Eager to encourage their offspring's latest enthusiasm, they have been willing to toss up their hands and vote for Mr. Obama, if only to impress their children.

"Tell your mama to vote for Obama" is pretty catchy, but will it stick? The Times thinks so: "A lot of parents are a little afraid of their kids," a Harvard psychologist tells the paper.

Yikes.


Ask And Ye Shall Receive

This video isn't the most objective, but, in its defense, it just does what Obama asks:

An interesting victory here for McCain: The media -- the media! -- has blunted one of the Democrats' hoped-for attacks. We'll probably still hear about the "100 years" in the fall, but not in the way Obama has been using it.

(ht: Jonathan Martin)


PA Polls: Far Different Results

Two new polls in Pennsylvania returned far different results. A SurveyUSA poll has Clinton up 18 points over Obama, while a Rasmussen poll looks much more like the Quinnipiac poll released today, with Clinton up 5 points.

SurveyUSA (April 5-7, 597 Dem LV, MoE +/- 4.1%)

Clinton 56 (+3 vs. last poll, March 29-31)
Obama 38 (-3)

Rasmussen (April 7, 695 Dem LV, +/- 4%)

Clinton 48 (+1 vs. last poll, March 31)
Obama 43 (+1)
Und 9

Clinton now leads the RCP Average for Pennsylvania by 7.0 points


McCain and Petraeus, Crocker

Here's McCain's opening statement:

And his questioning:


Don't Pop the Cork

Patrick Ruffini isn't impressed by McCain's March numbers:

As much as I don't want to sound unhelpful, it's time for a little tough love. If anyone thinks McCain raising $15 million in March is good news -- and crucially, just $4M of it from online and direct mail -- then they're probably part of the problem rather than part of the solution.

What stands out from the announcement is the sense that they've thrown in the towel when it comes to fundraising for John McCain 2008. Read between the lines, and it sure looks like they're putting all their chips on RNC Victory, which can raise in $25,000 increments, and a helping hand from Team Romney. They're also taking public money in the general, foreclosing any chance of the grassroots funding the campaign if Obama breaks his public funding promise.

Exactly. For all the good news McCain has had recently, money is still his No. 1 challenge. We're witnessing the power of good fundraising in Pennsylvania and Obama's chipping away at Clinton's lead. Take that, expand it, and you get a sense of what could happen come the fall.



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