2010 Academy Awards | Dave Karger | Dave Karger's OscarWatch

Dave Karger's OscarWatch 2010 Academy Awards | Dave Karger

Jan 6 2010 12:01 AM ET

The Official OscarWatch Precursor Tally

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So far six of the most important pre-Oscar precursor nominees have been announced — National Board of Review, American Film Institute, Broadcast Film Critics Association, Golden Globes, Screen Actors Guild, and Producers Guild of America. And as you’ll see from the tally below, only one film, The Hurt Locker, has landed on all six lists. Here’s the running count, which I’ll update when the Directors Guild and Writers Guild announce their nominees in the coming week.

6: The Hurt Locker (NBR, AFI, BFCA, GG, SAG, PGA)
5: Inglourious Basterds (NBR, BFCA, GG, SAG, PGA)
5: Precious (AFI, BFCA, GG, SAG, PGA)
5: Up in the Air (NBR, AFI, BFCA, GG, PGA)
4: An Education (NBR, BFCA, SAG, PGA) ineligible for AFI
4: Up (NBR, AFI, BFCA, PGA)
3: Avatar (BFCA, GG, PGA)
3: Invictus (NBR, BFCA, PGA)
3: Nine (BFCA, GG, SAG)
3: A Serious Man (NBR, AFI, BFCA)
2: (500) Days of Summer (NBR, GG)
2: The Hangover (AFI, GG)
2: The Messenger (NBR, AFI)
2: Star Trek (NBR, PGA)
1: Coraline (AFI)
1: District 9 (PGA)
1: It’s Complicated (GG)
1: Julie & Julia (GG)
1: A Single Man (AFI)
1: Sugar (AFI)
1: Where the Wild Things Are (NBR)

Jan 5 2010 01:36 PM ET

'District 9' + 'Star Trek' = An 'Avatar' loss at the Oscars?

by Dave Karger

Categories: Best Picture

It’s often said that the Oscar race always changes once the nominees are announced. And the science-fiction heavy Producers Guild of America’s top 10 list, announced earlier today, raises an interesting question: What if Avatar, District 9, and Star Trek all repeat and score Oscar nominations for Best Picture? Could Avatar, which is widely considered to be the frontrunner at this point, actually be hurt by all the sci-fi love? It certainly seems logical that James Cameron’s opus would lose more votes to District and Trek than it would to, say, smaller indies like A Serious Man or The Messenger. In such a tight race as this year’s, something like that could make all the difference.

Cameron himself acknowledges the three films will affect each others’ chances. As he told my colleague Carrie Bell at the Avatar premiere: “I hope the existence of Avatar doesn’t negate the hard work of a few other directors on some really great genre films this year, like District 9 or Star Trek. But I fear that if [Oscar voters] do get over the historical bias once, they won’t feel the need to do it again in the same year.” So should Avatar fans now be praying that District 9 and Star Trek don’t make it in to the Academy’s top 10? Or is Avatar so far ahead of Up in the Air and The Hurt Locker that one or two other action flicks won’t make a significant enough dent in its lead? I’m thinking the Na’vi can handle one other sci-fi competitor. But if both District and Trek make it in, there could be a problem.

UPDATE In response to several commenters who are mystified by my calling Avatar the Oscar frontrunner of the moment: Believe it, folks. I’ve been resistant to the idea over the last few weeks, but nearly every Academy member I’ve talked to is calling the race over already. As a big fan of The Hurt Locker, Precious, Inglourious Basterds, and Up in the Air (not to mention someone who isn’t a fan of boring, predictable Oscar seasons), I’d like to think it’s closer than they say, but I’m just here to report to all of you what’s going on in the awards battle.

Tweet me @davekarger.

Jan 5 2010 09:28 AM ET

'District 9,' 'Star Trek' score Producers Guild nods

by Dave Karger

Categories: Pre-Oscar Prizes

District 9 and Star Trek made it onto the Producers Guild list of 10 nominees alongside Oscar frontrunners Avatar, Up in the Air, and The Hurt Locker. I managed to predict 9 of the 10 nominees correctly — I had Julie & Julia instead of District 9. Here are the nominees:

Avatar
District 9
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Invictus
Precious
Star Trek
Up
Up in the Air

Today’s news means that District and Trek are true contenders for those last two Best Picture slots, despite the huge success of that other sci-fi crowd pleaser, Avatar. Left off the PGA list, by the way: A Serious Man, The Messenger, It’s Complicated, and Nine. Their animated nominees are 9, Coraline, Fantastic Mr. Fox, The Princess and the Frog, and Up. For Documentary, it’s Burma VJ, The Cove, Sergio, and Soundtrack for a Revolution.

Follow me on Twitter (@davekarger) for instant Oscar updates.

Jan 4 2010 01:44 PM ET

Predict the Producers Guild nominees!

by Dave Karger

Categories: Pre-Oscar Prizes

I just know I’m going to be completely useless at predicting tomorrow’s 10 Producers Guild nominees, but why not have a go at it anyway? One of the big question marks for me is Up. Over the years, the PGA has nominated The Incredibles and Shrek as part of its best feature list, but now that it has a separate animation category, will voters include it twice? (I’m thinking yes.) And since the PGA often nominates box-office hits that don’t end up making Oscar’s shortlist (My Big Fat Greek Wedding, Harry Potter and the Sorcerer’s Stone) which crowd-pleasers may get in there at the expense of some smaller films? Keeping all that in mind, here’s my best guess at the PGA top 10:

Avatar
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Invictus
Julie & Julia
Precious
Star Trek
Up
Up in the Air

Care to hazard a guess yourself? And while you’re at it, add me to your Twitter feed (@davekarger) for more Oscar news!

Image credit: Disney/Pixar

Jan 3 2010 05:30 PM ET

'Hurt Locker' wins National Society of Film Critics award

by Dave Karger

Categories: Pre-Oscar Prizes

It’s already picked up Best Picture honors from the New York and Los Angeles film critics societies, and now The Hurt Locker has made a clean sweep of the three biggest movie-reviewer groups, winning the National Society of Film Critics prize for the top film of the year. Check out my critics-award chart here. The full NSFC list is below.

Best Picture The Hurt Locker
Best Director Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
Best Actor Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker
Best Actress Yolande Moreau, Seraphine
Best Supporting Actor Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds and Paul Schneider, Bright Star
Best Supporting Actress Mo’Nique, Precious
Best Screenplay Joel & Ethan Coen, A Serious Man
Foreign-Language Film Summer Hours
Non-fiction Film The Beaches of Agnes
Cinematography Christian Berger, The White Ribbon
Production Design Nelson Lowry, Fantastic Mr. Fox

Dec 31 2009 08:00 AM ET

Oscars: Dave Karger predicts the nominees

by Dave Karger

Categories: Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Director, Best Picture, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress

After scouring all the critics awards, Golden Globe and SAG nominations, I’ve come up with my predictions for who’ll get nominated in the eight main Oscar races on Feb. 2. My Best Picture picks are immediately below; the other seven categories are after the jump. In the acting races, I stuck largely with the SAG picks, which seem right to me. Except in the supporting actress category, where I think there will be more of a discrepancy. These picks are immortalized in print in EW’s Jan. 8 issue; since we still have the DGA before us, time will tell if I make any changes between now and nomination day.

Best Picture
Avatar
An Education
The Hurt Locker
Inglourious Basterds
Invictus
The Messenger
Precious
A Serious Man
Up
Up in the Air

Oh, how much easier this would be if there were only five Best Picture nominees this year: It’d be Up in the Air, The Hurt Locker, Avatar, Precious, and Inglourious Basterds and we’d call it a day. It’s those other five slots that are tougher to suss out. An Education has strong support from actors (witness its SAG nod for best cast) and across-the-pond voters, and the delightfully strange A Serious Man will rally the Coen brothers’ fervent fan base. Invictus has the necessary prestige to make the cut, while Best Animated Feature front-runner Up should manage to break out of the cartoon ghetto. If voters want to go the populist route, the top contender is the adult romance It’s Complicated. But since it’s the No. 1 and No. 2 votes on the Academy’s ranked ballots that truly count, a film with a smaller cult of enthusiastic followers—think District 9 or, more likely, The Messenger—is poised to become a spoiler. Which means the flashy, filled-with-Oscar-faves musical Nine may fall victim to its nasty reviews and lackluster box office.

Check out the rest of my predictions after the jump.

(Read full post)

Dec 30 2009 11:45 AM ET

What if there were 5 Best Picture nominees?

by Dave Karger

Categories: Best Picture

When the Academy announced back in June that it’s including 10 Best Picture nominees this year, one of the things I thought about was whether, once the nominees were announced, it would be obvious which five films would have been nominated in a typical year and which five were the “extra” nominees. Well, now that I’ve worked up my Oscar-nomination predictions (which will appear in this week’s issue of EW as well as on this blog tomorrow morning), I’m thinking the answer to that question is a resounding yes. If there were only five Best Picture slots, wouldn’t they go to Avatar, The Hurt Locker, Inglourious Basterds, Precious, and Up in the Air? Those five seem way ahead of the competition at the moment, while there are probably nine or so films (District 9, An Education, Invictus, It’s Complicated, The Messenger, Nine, A Serious Man, Star Trek, and Up) that are jockeying for the other five slots but would have had a hard time bumping out any of my “top five.”

What do you think? Am I overestimating or underestimating any of these contenders? Which five films would you predict if the Academy were using last year’s rules? And isn’t it a bit ironic, given that the super-size race was meant to include more audience-friendly films in the mix, that Avatar would easily be nominated even with half the slots?

Please follow me on Twitter (@davekarger) for more Oscar news and updates.

Image credit: François Duhamel

Dec 29 2009 11:04 AM ET

'Avatar' makes AFI's 'moments of significance' list

by Dave Karger

Categories: Pre-Oscar Prizes

The Hangover may have snagged Avatar’s slot on the American Film Institute’s list of the top 10 films of the year, but James Cameron’s smash has found its way onto AFI’s companion list of eight “moments of signifcance,” alongside Jay Leno’s move to 10pm, the rise of Twitter, and Michael Jackson’s death. “James Cameron’s pioneering effort to unleash the human imagination was fully realized in 2009 with the release of Avatar, a film that firmly established itself as a landmark in the way stories are told,” the AFI citation reads in part. “[W]ith Cameron’s advances in CGI (computer-generated images) and 3D, Avatar enters AFI’s almanac as an achievement that will have profound effects on the future of the art form.” Just not as profound, apparently, as The Hangover.

Dec 28 2009 05:08 PM ET

Whose Oscar hopes has 'Avatar' killed?

by Dave Karger

Categories: Best Picture

I’ve never been a believer in the theory that Oscar voters have “slots” that they look to fill in the Best Picture race each year — the indie film, the blockbuster, the biopic, etc. That would imply that the entire voting body somehow decides on these things together, which obviously isn’t the case. But I do think the argument can be made that Avatar’s newly-cemented status as a Best Picture frontrunner along the lines of The Hurt Locker and Up in the Air does have ramifications for other contenders that push similar buttons. For instance, Avatar’s popularity among Academy members is likely the death knell for Star Trek and District 9’s Best Picture hopes, since there probably won’t be room for two sci-fi films in the list of 10. Likewise, other box-office smashes like The Hangover and The Blind Side now seem quite pale by comparison to James Cameron’s visionary work.

The question everyone is now asking: Can Avatar win? Gregory Ellwood over at Hitfix.com is raking me over the coals for still having Up in the Air as my No. 1 contender on Movie City News’ Gurus o’ Gold chart. One thing’s for sure, though: With a bona fide blockbuster squarely in the hunt for the biggest Oscar of all, you can guarantee the telecast’s producers are doing cartwheels right now.

Image credit: WETA

Dec 25 2009 12:01 AM ET

Dear Santa: Get these long shots nominated!

by Dave Karger

Categories: Best Actor, Best Actress, Best Picture, Best Supporting Actor, Best Supporting Actress

On this Christmas day, my wish list includes Oscar nominations for the following five dark horse contenders. Are you listening, Santa? (Or at least, Academy members?)

Best Picture: Brothers
I’m well aware that Jim Sheridan’s latest drama has as many haters as it does fans. But to me it felt real and true from the first frame. It also contains the strongest performance of Natalie Portman’s career and the best kid acting I’ve ever seen.

Best Actor: Matt Damon, The Informant!
At this point, Damon seems like a good bet for a supporting nod for Invictus. And that’s fine. But his more impressive work was as the world’s worst whistle-blower in Steven Soderbergh’s out-there comedy. Bonus points for Damon’s impeccable voice-over work in the film.

Best Actress: Maya Rudolph, Away We Go
Playing a conflicted mom-to-be, Rudolph was as quiet and introspective as she was riotously funny impersonating Whitney or Oprah on Saturday Night Love.

Best Supporting Actor: Alec Baldwin, It’s Complicated
I’m flabbergasted that Baldwin’s scene-stealing performance opposite Meryl Streep isn’t gaining more traction. He’s witty, sympathetic, and nude: What more should Oscar voters want?

Best Supporting Actress: Mariah Carey, Precious
Okay, let the hateful comments begin, but I insist that Carey is a deserving contender for her brief turn as a dowdy social worker. Carey’s costars Gabourey Sidibe and Mo’Nique are well on their way to scoring nominations. Considering their most memorable moments are with Carey, she should get in there too.

My other holiday wish? That you’ll follow me on Twitter (@davekarger) for Oscar updates throughout the season. What long-shot nominations are you wishing for?

Image credit: Damon: Claudette Barius; Baldwin: Melinda Sue Gordon

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