It is tempting to blame all the demos and violence in the streets of London on the economic crisis. But I think that would be a misreading. The fact is that the British - and many other Europeans - have long enjoyed a good riot. The thing that needs explaining is why we haven’t had much social disorder since the turn of the century, not why it has returned now.

When I was growing up in London we had the Notting Hill riots in the 1970s, the Brixton riots in the early 1980s, riots in Liverpool, all the disorder linked to the miners’ strike, the Poll Tax riots at the end of the Thatcher era. If you want to go a lot further back, you could mention the Gordon Riots in 1780; the Chartist riots in the mid-nineteenth century.

And that’s just Britain. Obviously, the French have an even livelier tradition of social disorder and street riots. And just before 9/11, it began to look as if no meeting of European leaders would be complete without being set against a background of anarchist demonstrations. In July 2001, I went to an EU summit in Gothenburg where most of the city seemed to have been trashed by the “black blocs” of assorted European anarchists.

But, after 9/11, all this seemed to have stopped for a while. Maybe security was tightened up; maybe even the anarchists felt that protests against globalisation were no longer quite the thing. Whatever the reason, for several years things have gone quiet. Of course, there were big demonstrations against the Iraq war - but they had a coherence and a focus that the anti-capitalist demos lack.

So, while it is tempting to hail the street protests against the G-20 as signalling some sort of new political era of protest, I think it is the opposite. It’s back to business as usual.

Looks like Gordon Brown is going to revert to an old political trick as he pulls together a deal to save the world. There has been some movement on a number of fronts. The IMF will have its funding tripled to £750bn, or more; at least £100bn of trade finance; a big increase in special drawing rights, the IMF’s own currency, or significantly in excess of £40bn. On top of that we should see some new language on fiscal stimulus, although some officials are still doubtful that it will have any more meaning.

What is the Brown trick? Add up all the measures. The prime minister has always been a fan of big, round numbers. My rough calculation is that the international finance pledges and the existing levels of fiscal stimulus (£2,000bn?) would add up to something approaching £3,000bn. That will depend on whether “significant” progress is made on the IMF funding and SDR front, which seems very likely. Cue the biggest financial stimulus the world has ever seen.

The big question is whether this is new money. Most of the trade finance will be reallocated from various countries export guarantee budget, we think. The IMF funding will depend on the mechanism used, which is still a live issue. Far too early to be cynical, but watch out for the details.

A big moment: Downing Street have just released the seating plan for the G20 dinner. The protocol officials seem to have done a decent job because it is hard to pick the best place to sit. We’ve decided that Felipe Calderon of Mexico has a pretty good spot, with Russia and Brazil to his left and right, and China and France opposite (well, if Sarko turns up). We’re wondering what Gordon Brown will have to say to Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono.

Continue reading "G20 seating plan: where would you like to sit?"

It is not quite the “empty chair”, but Nicolas Sarkozy is making very clear that he is unhappy with Gordon Brown’s grand plan. Will the G20 meeting survive the Sarko huff? Continue reading "The Sarko huff"