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A look at the week ahead in politics.
The president heads to Prague to sign a nuclear treaty; Congress is off; Obama throws out the Washington Nationals' first pitch; the Financial Inquiry Commission holds its first hearing; Romney to NH; Palin, Bachmann together; and the Southern Republican Leadership Conference GOP cattle call kicks off in New Orleans.
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From NBC's Ali Weinberg CHARLOTTE, NC -- President Obama took advantage of a visit to a manufacturing plant here to tout today's release of a report showing that the U.S. economy added 162,000 jobs in March, which he said was evidence of his administration's successful efforts to shore up the economy.
But Obama cautioned that the country still had "a ways to go" before it sees a full recovery.
Speaking in front of a crowd of 300 employees of the Celgard battery manufacturing plant, the president said the increase of 162,000 jobs -- although the unemployment rate remained unchanged at 9.7% -- was a sign that the economy was "beginning to turn a corner."
"There are more folks feeling a sense of pride and satisfaction that comes with a hard-earned, well deserved paycheck at the end of a week of work," he said, adding that the news signified that the "necessary though sometimes unpopular" steps the administration has taken -- like the stimulus act and bank bailout -- were "helping us to climb out of this recession."
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From NBC's Courtney Kube, Savannah Guthrie, and Mark Murray Karl Eikenberry met with President Karzai today to seek clarification of Karzai's allegations of fraud in last year's elections and his assertion that the West is trying to weaken him.
A State Department official said that they still do not have a read out of the Eikenberry and Karzai meeting yet, but that Eikenberry did convey that the U.S. is troubled by Karzai's allegations. "I'm sure he repeated that we are concerned and troubled by what he said," the official said.
"For whatever reason, President Karzai is looking backwards," the official said, "He is focused on something that happened last June, when he needs to be focused on what should be happening over the next few years."
According to the New York Times , Karzai -- who met with President Obama on Sunday -- said this yesterday: "'There is no doubt that the fraud was very widespread, but this fraud was not committed by Afghans, it was committed by foreigners,' Mr. Karzai said. 'This fraud was committed by Galbraith, this fraud was committed by Morillon and this fraud was committed by embassies.' Mr. Karzai was referring to Peter W. Galbraith, the deputy United Nations special representative to Afghanistan at the time of the election and the person who helped reveal the fraud, and Philippe Morillon, the chief election observer for the European Union."
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From NBC's Mark Murray Research 2000/Daily Kos poll shows Arizona Sen. John McCain with a comfortable 15-point lead over GOP primary challenger J.D. Hayworth , 52%-37%.
Interestingly, both men are viewed favorably among Arizona Republicans. McCain's fav/unfav with them is 76%-19%, and Hayworth's is 61%-16%.
What's also clear is that Arizona still isn't Obama country. The president's overall fav/unfav in the state is 41%-55%, according to the poll. And 44% of Arizonans say they would be more likely to vote for a candidate who wants to repeal the new health care, versus 39% who say they would be more likely to vote for a candidate who supports the law and improving it.
From NBC's Mark Murray It has become a predictable pattern in the first year-plus of Barack Obama's presidency: The White House and Republicans spend the first Friday of every month reacting to the new jobs report.
And today isn't any different, although the arguments from the two sides have changed with the news that the economy added 162,000 in jobs with the unemployment rate remaining at 9.7%.
Here's White House economic adviser Christina Romer :
Today’s employment report shows continued signs of gradual labor market healing... While this is the most positive jobs report we have had in three years, there will likely be bumps in the road ahead. The monthly employment and unemployment numbers are volatile and subject to substantial revision. Therefore, it is important not to read too much into any one monthly report, positive or negative. It is essential that we continue our efforts to move in the right direction and generate steady, strong job gains.
Here's RNC Chairman Michael Steele in a statement (although we haven't heard from him publicly since the sex-themed club story broke):
No matter what spin the White House puts on these job numbers, it is unacceptable for President Obama to declare economic success when unemployment remains at 9.7 percent and a large portion of the job growth came from temporary boost in government employment.
And here's House Minority Leader John Boehner :
A 9.7 percent unemployment rate is no cause for celebration, and any politician who takes a victory lap for it is out of touch with the struggles working families and small businesses asking ‘where are the jobs?’ are facing.
Today’s private-sector job gains are encouraging but not nearly what President Obama promised when he signed the trillion-dollar ‘stimulus’ into law last year with promises it would keep unemployment below eight percent and create jobs ‘immediately.’ Our economy has lost more than three million jobs since then and unemployment remains near ten percent.
A pretty positive jobs report for the White House, with employers adding 162,000 in March… Unemployment rate remains unchanged at 9.7%... Obama heads to North Carolina -- again -- to talk jobs… President admits the midterms will be tough for Democrats, but there are a couple reasons why 2010 might not be 1994… Obama as media critic… First Read’s Top 10 issues… And fundraising news becomes a story in the Lincoln-Halter primary in Arkansas.
From Chuck Todd, Mark Murray, Domenico Montanaro, and Ali Weinberg Good Friday (for Dems): Last Friday, we said that today’s job report would likely determine whether the Obama White House and Democrats would enjoy another good week. The news from the report? It’s pretty good -- but with some caveats. In March, the AP writes, employers added 162,000 jobs and the unemployment rate remained unchanged, at 9.7%. But while that 162,000 figure represents the largest monthly jobs gain in three years, it is below the nearly 200,000 that some economists were predicting. What’s more, some of that growth comes from temporary Census jobs. That said, the AP reports that private employers added 123,000 jobs, so it would be incorrect to attribute most of the gains to the Census jobs.
*** Carolina on my mind: As has been the pattern when the monthly jobs numbers are released, Obama hits the road -- this time to Charlotte, NC, where he delivers remarks on the economy at 11:55 am ET. This is his third visit to the normally red state since he became president, NBC’s Athena Jones points out. And both the vice president and the first lady also have traveled to North Carolina. Keeping North Carolina blue is a mini-obsession of the Obama White House, and while they will claim this has nothing to do with politics, it's apparent that politics is playing a role here. House Minority Leader John Boehner pre-buts Obama's visit with an op-ed in the Charlotte Observer .
*** A difficult midterm season for Dems: At one of his fundraisers last night in Boston, Obama admitted that the midterm elections will be difficult for Democrats. “These November elections … will be hard, partly because this country is still divided. And after 2006 and 2008 we hit a very high watermark in terms of Democratic representation in Congress and governorships and we’re in the midst of what is still a very difficult time,” Obama said. And the comparisons to 1994, when Democrats lost the House and Senate, are growing. Yesterday’s USA Today said that the attitudes from its recent poll were reminiscent to those from ’94. And Democratic pollster Stan Greenberg has said that if the midterms were held today, we’d see another 1994.
*** 2010 vs. 1994: But there are now a couple of big differences between now and 1994. First, Democrats are more united now than they were back then (see: health care). As Ron Brownstein writes in his National Journal column, “Democrats remain divided on immigration, climate change, and some other issues, but they have united enough to make this arguably the most productive legislative session for any Democratic president since Lyndon Johnson.” Second, retirements have been the dog that hasn’t barked, especially this week. Remember that congressional recess periods are times when you normally hear about retirements. Yet we haven’t heard about a single one so far during this break. Of course, we still have a week to go. But even now, there are more GOP retirements for House and Senate seats than Dem ones. That said, more of those Democratic retirements are in swing states and districts. But so far, it’s not anything like 1994.
*** Media Critic-In-Chief: We’re the first to admit that the media’s intense 24-7 coverage of the Obama White House -- Who’s up, who’s down? Is the president FDR or Jimmy Carter? What is Sarah Palin saying about Obama via Facebook? Is this make-or-break for the history books? -- hasn’t produced some of the greatest moments in political journalism. And we admit that as cautious as we try to be, we’re guilty of some of this, too. But what’s equally interesting here is how much Obama clearly HATES the political chatter to the point that he, himself, can't stop talking about it. "You have to love some of the pundits in Washington," Obama said yesterday in Maine. "Every day since I signed reform into law, there's another poll or headline that says 'Nation still divided on health care reform.' 'Polls haven't changed yet.' Well, yeah -- it just happened last week!" He then added, "Can you imagine if some of these reporters were working on a farm? You planted some seeds and they came out the next day and they looked and they said, 'Nothing's happened! There's no crop! We're gonna starve! Oh no!"
*** Crippled or The Comeback Kid? Of course, this isn’t the first time Obama has criticized how the media covers him and Washington politics. Last month while campaigning for health care in Virginia, he said: “What [cable stations] like to talk about is the politics of the vote. What does this mean in November? What does it mean to the poll numbers? Is this more of an advantage for Democrats or Republicans? What’s it going to mean for Obama? Will his presidency be crippled, or will he be the comeback kid?” And the president repeated his “farm” jokes at both fundraisers in Boston last night. The president's shots at the media really irk conservatives, who believe (without as much evidence as they think they have) that somehow the White House gets a free pass constantly from the media. The fact is this: Everyone hates to have their every move covered, whether they are liberal or conservative, Republican or Democrat, a 0 handicap or an 18 handicap, a .255 hitter or a .330 hitter; a two-time Super Bowl winning QB or a career backup.
*** First Read’s Top 10 Issues: If it’s Friday’s, it’s time for another First Read Top 10 list -- this time a look at what we consider to be the Top 10 issues/themes playing out so far in the midterm races we’re following. 1. Washington: With less than 20% of the country approving of Congress' job, it's not surprising that everyone from Rick Perry and Robin Carnahan to Blanche Lincoln and Michael Bennet are running against -- or away from -- Washington. 2. Economy/Jobs: While this is undoubtedly the most important issue affecting the country and Obama's political health, as well as the one that is most impacting Democrats' midterm prospects, we've noticed more candidates running against Washington than on the economy so far. Will this change by August? 3. TARP/Bailouts: If their opponent voted for the TARP back in the fall of 2008, you're seeing candidates -- left and right, from Bill Halter to those competing against Utah Sen. Bob Bennett -- reminding folks about that vote.4. Health Care: Whether it's Democrats justifying their votes for the legislation, Democrats arguing over the law (Conway vs. Mongiardo), Republicans trying to repeal it, or those backing away from repeal (Mark Kirk), health care is a potent issue. But does it recede a month or two from now? Right now, it's MOST pronounced in any race featuring a sitting attorney general.5. Wall Street: While Republicans and conservatives are railing against TARP, Democrats and progressives are going after Wall Street. Martha Coakley tried to seize on this issue earlier this year, but it didn't save her. Still, anti-Wall Street sentiment could really resonate as financial reform heats up. 6. Barack Obama: In Republican primaries, we've seen Marco Rubio criticize Charlie Crist for embracing the president last year; in Dem primaries, we've seen candidates like Arlen Specter and Joe Sestak compete to see who is the more loyal to the president; and in Arizona, we've seen J.D. Hayworth and John McCain battle over Obama's citizenship. The open question is how much Obama becomes an issue once GENERAL elections get started. Do Republicans run against Congress and Pelosi or Obama or try to fuse them all together? 7. Establishment vs. Anti-Establishment: We're seeing this story play out in Kentucky (Grayson vs. Paul) as well as in New Hampshire (Ayotte vs. Lamontagne and Binnie). 8. 9/11/National Security: We're a long way removed from 2001 or even 2004. But 9/11 and security politics remain an issue, particularly in the Grayson vs. Paul primary in Kentucky. 9. Competence: At a time when states are facing budget deficits, gubernatorial candidates across the country -- Rick Snyder in Michigan (“one tough nerd”), Jerry Brown and Meg Whitman in California, and Terry Branstad in Iowa -- are playing up their experience or smarts. This is a theme we expect to see move up our list as November draws closer. 10. Immigration: We're also a long way removed from the immigration battles of 2006 and 2007, but the issue could easily reappear if the Obama White House and congressional Democrats try to push it through Congress this summer. This is the dog that hasn’t bit yet beyond some isolated incidents in races out West.
*** Super Senate Tuesday: In Arkansas, Blanche Lincoln’s campaign announced that it had raised more than $1 million in the 1st quarter, which was news Bill Halter’s campaign (which raised $2 million in one month) pounced on. Still, Lincoln has $4 million in the bank. One thing is for sure: Money isn't going to be a reason Halter comes up short.… In Kentucky, Democrats Jack Conway and Dan Mongiardo participated in a candidate forum, where the two clashed over health care (Conway is for the health law, while Mongiardo is against it).
*** Other midterm news: In Illinois, there’s breaking news that Alexi Giannoulias’ family bank “loaned a pair of Chicago crime figures about $20 million during a 14-month period when Giannoulias was a senior loan officer.” (And the bank hasn't officially shut down yet, that happens later this month)… And in New York, Rick Lazio says he isn’t dropping his gubernatorial bid to run for the Senate.
Countdown to IN, NC, and OH primaries: 32 days
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Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano today is announcing a new layer of aviation security after the failed Christmas Day attack, according to a senior administration official. “Under the new measures, every passenger from every country traveling to the United States will be subjected to additional screening if they match current, intelligence-driven and threat-based characteristics. These protocols also give the US the ability to now better screen individuals when only fragments of information are known about them.”
The New York Times on Obama's visit to Maine yesterday to pitch health care: "President Obama continued on Thursday what might be called his Go-for-It Tour, traveling to this Northeastern state -- represented by two moderate Republican senators who balked at his health care overhaul -- to dare the opposition party to run against it this fall."
The Boston Globe : "The speech reflected a newly confident tone by the president, whose first year was characterized by an uphill struggle to overhaul health care while fending off complaints he was not paying enough attention to the high unemployment rate. Fellow Democrats, meanwhile, began to grumble that the White House had allowed Republicans to control the message on the issue, making it even harder for congressional Democrats to pass it."
The New York Daily News says Obama "dishes out sarcasm on health care pessimism."
"A light will shine down from somewhere. ... The clouds will part ." President Obama visited flood-ravaged regions of Massachusetts yesterday to thank flood workers. "A few hours before the president arrived in the waterlogged region, the dense canopy of clouds that had hung over New England finally cleared, and much-welcomed sunlight began to shine through," the Boston Globe writes.
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"Partisan acrimony reached one of the most obscure outposts of the federal government on Thursday, when House GOP leadership voiced its opposition to a Democratic nominee to the Election Assistance Commission,"
Roll Call writes. "In a statement, House Minority Leader John Boehner (Ohio) criticized the White House for nominating House Administration Committee aide Tom Hicks to the EAC last week without including a GOP counterpart."
"The best thing the Republican Party can say about this week is, it is nearly over,"
AP writes. In addition to the sex-club expenditure, "Now it turns out the RNC inadvertently listed a phone-sex number on a fund-raising letter sent to potential donors. People who tried to call the committee were instead offered 'live, one-on-one talk with a nasty girl' for $2.99 a minute."
The reviews are in on Palin's 'Real American Stories": "Sarah Palin will have a career in TV, that's for sure, but 'Real American Stories' isn't the show to make her a superstar," the
New York Daily News' Huff writes. But it doesn't blame it on her, "It's the production," the paper adds. And: "Palin is disconnected from the show. Having her follow the taped pieces with interviews gives the production the feel of a telethon, without the pitch for money… A better production would help, and so, too, would having her do the field interviews."
The Washington Post on President Obama’s effectiveness as a campaign booster in midterm races nationwide: “In the anti-establishment climate, some Democrats are saying that it's smart for Obama to keep his distance from candidates in difficult races, allowing them to run against Washington and avoid the downward pull of his approval ratings. Others say he should heed the lessons of last year's Democratic losses and begin campaigning early enough to make a difference with the Democratic base.” Already, however, ‘there is a clear no-fly zone’ for some candidates, like Arkansas Sen. Blanche Lincoln.
ARIZONA: J.D. Hayworth will report raising $1 million in the first quarter. John McCain raised more than double that.
ILLINOIS: The Alton Telegraph writes that Republican Senate candidate Mark Kirk is stepping back further from his pledge to repeal the health care reform law: “’We lost, and we don't have the votes,’ Kirk said Thursday in Springfield. ‘And so now my job is to tell the American people exactly what is (in) this bill in terms of new taxes and cuts to seniors who depend on Medicare. And then to go forward, hopefully as your senator, and have some of these taxes not in place, have some of these cuts not in place,’” the newspaper quotes him as saying.
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