Pre-Budget report: even Whitehall departments are in the dark

Just back from the Institute for Fiscal Studies briefing on the PBR, which is a fixture on the political-economic calendar.

(Keep an eye on this site for more about the IFS conclusions, but a snapshot: almost 20 per cent cuts in departmental spending; NICs rise will hit anyone earning more than £14k, not £20k has Treasury suggests; UK debt to remain above 60 per cent of GDP for a generation; fiscal tightening required to balance budget over next six years is equal to £2,400 per familiy p.a.)

I've been going to IFS events since 2001, and they're always a mix of hacks, wonks and a few City folk and other "proper" economists.
Today, another group was much in evidence: civil servants. As well as several Treasury folk, I counted people from half a dozen Whitehall departments. There was even a lady from the National Audit Office.

Why were they there? Simple. They're as much in the dark about the Treasury's plans as the rest of us. Alistair Darling is refusing to publish a Comprehensive Spending Review for the period after 2011. So no-one (except schools, the NHS and maybe the police) really knows what they're going to get. Even the NAO lady was asking the IFS to try to explain the ambiguities, evasions and gaps in the PBR.

Treasury people sometimes grumble about the veneration shown to the IFS. This time, by its own refusal to divulge more detail about its plans, the Treasury has only added to the IFS' lustre: as even civil servants now admit, you're more likely to get the facts from an independent think-tank than from the Government itself.