Phil Woolas: a by-election is not good news for the Coalition

So the election of Phil Woolas as MP for Oldham East and Saddleworth has been declared void. A new election will be held.

Mr Woolas won the seat in May by 103 votes over the Liberal Democrats. Could a new election held under such circumstances give the Lib Dems another seat?

Well, to state the obvious, a lot has changed since May, not least the Lib Dems' popularity. Polls now regularly put them in single figures. Certainly, I don't detect much glee in Government ranks over the prospect of a new poll in Oldham, which is just the sort of seat where strategists expect real anger over public sector cuts. Indeed, some Government folk said before today's ruling that the Coalition currently needs a by-election like a hole in the head.

Anyone out there willing to put money on the Lib Dems managing to snatch the seat back from Labour?

Update:
Since this post was written, it has emerged that Mr Woolas will seek a judicial review of the judgement that his election is void. That puts a certain question mark over a new election in Oldham.

As various learned commenters have pointed out below, John Bercow, the Commons Speaker, now has an interesting decision to make. He can either order an immediate by-election, or he can delay any decision until legal proceedings are concluded. He's likely to give the Commons his decision on Monday. Which way will he go? Another subject for a sporting wager, perhaps?