David Cairns: in or out?

"David Cairns is a member of the Government."  That was the official word from No 10 at 11am this morning.   "Sources" in the Scotland Office are also adamant he's staying put.

But will Mr Cairns ultimately resign? Probably. Caught in the spotlight and now considering his options, I suspect he will conclude that stepping down is now the most honourable way out of this particular mess.

Did he plan this? Probably not. It's no secret that Mr Cairns is a close friend of Siobhan McDonagh.  It's no secret that he was a supporter of Tony Blair.But was he intending to go public as a critic of Gordon Brown?

I don't think so, and neither do his friends. They believe that Mr Cairns yesterday had a no-names conversation with a BBC reporter in which he expressed unhappiness with the Government but not the firm intention to quit. They say he was startled to see the way that conversation was reported later.

The same friends go on to angrily blame "Downing Street sources" for linking his name to that report. 

Where the truth lies here, I can't say, and in a sense, it doesn't matter. Because one bigger truth is is clear: the Labour Party is moving further down the road of internal division, recrimination and bitterness. Parties struggle to recover from ordeals like this.

Incidentally, if Mr Cairns does go, watch for interesting knock-on effects.You've heard it said that Gordon Brown's fate now hangs on the Glenrothes by-election? Well guess which Scottish minister was due to run Labour's campaign in Fife…?

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