Those dynastic Arabs

Of the Arab League’s 22 countries (28 if you break the United Arab Emirates down into its mini-monarchies), only three have a fair claim to give their people a real democratic choice of government: Iraq, the Palestinian territories and Lebanon. Dynasties—whether monarchical or republican—are still the name of the game. How stable will those dynasties be in 2007?

The well-groomed young MubarakGetty Images

None of the 14 ruling Arab monarchs looks particularly threatened, though the occasional rumpus within the families—as in Kuwait in 2006—has seen an old ruler displaced by a younger one. There may be more mutterings in Oman about the succession to 66-year-old Sultan Qaboos, who has no obvious heir. Because of Jordan’s awkward demography and relative poverty (it is half-tribal, half-Palestinian and has no oil), King Abdullah can never sit comfortably on his throne. The big question in Saudi Arabia is whether King Abdullah (83 in 2007) will arrange for his successor to emerge from the next generation of princes or whether, as is more likely, his brother Prince Sultan, minister of defence since 1962, will take over.

The most tantalising puzzles concern the republican dynasties: those of the Hariris in Lebanon, the Qaddafis in Libya, the Assads in Syria and the Mubaraks in Egypt. The trickiest of the republican successions is in Egypt, the Arabs’ most populous country, where President Hosni Mubarak’s smooth son Gamal (44 in 2007) is waiting in the wings for his father (now 79) to give up. But the next election is not due until 2011—and it would be awkward for father simply to hand over to son without a modicum of democratic procedure.

In Syria, the 41-year-old Bashar Assad, who in 2000 succeeded his father after a 30-year rule, stumbles along, but probably has no more than a couple of years left as leader. Saad Hariri is one of the most powerful men in Lebanon, since he heads the biggest faction in parliament and inherited the mantle of his father, Rafik, who was assassinated in 2005 after a decade on and off as prime minister. But he lacks his father’s charisma. In Libya, the modernisers and their Western backers look to President Muammar Qaddafi’s son Seif to take over. But that succession is far from assured. And the older man does not look ready to go.

In 2007 there will not be one unfettered multi-party general election in the region. But reckon on the odd dynastic shake-up.