Jetstar Airways

AirAsia X IPO prospectus shows strength. AirAsia synergies help, also require definition

The prospectus for the forthcoming IPO for AirAsia X, a separate business from AirAsia, shows that the low-cost long-haul model can be successful, operationally and profitably, but only when deployed sensibly. During 1H2012, a challenging time for the global industry, AirAsia X reported a respectable 7.9% pre-tax margin on services to Australia, which comprise about half of the carrier's capacity.

The low cost model is ideally suited to Asia's price sensitive, high growth environment and AirAsia X's symbiotic relationship with Asia's biggest LCC, AirAsia, makes it a formidable model.

Attempts to serve Europe, since ended, resulted in a -26% margin in 2011. Yet Europe's weakness for AirAsia X was acknowledged early on. The sharply business-minded CEO Azran Osman-Rani went in saying he would be happy to break even; AirAsia X fell to pressure to plant the red flag in Europe at the behest of part-owner AirAsia, which still harbours an entrepreneurial spirit – and, at times, the associated confidence.

This will be the market's crux for AirAsia X's future – where AirAsia stops and where AirAsia X begins. AirAsia X is substantially complemented by AirAsia to sustain its effectiveness. The relationship between the two is a give and a take. The market, in assessing the IPO, will determine the balance.

Fiji's Air Pacific, revived and rebranded, is ready to embark on a new future

Air Pacific believes it is almost ready to take the fight back to its Australian and New Zealand rivals with a revitalised staff, an overhauled in-flight product, new identity and distinctive traditional livery on a new fleet of A330-200s in 2013.

Financially Fiji’s national carrier, which will revert to its original name of Fiji Airways, is back on its feet, recovering from a record loss to return to profit this year, and with arch rival Virgin Australia focused on a bigger battle for the Australian domestic market, Air Pacific/Fiji Airways could look to recoup some of the more than 50% market share it has lost in recent years.

But Managing Director Dave Pflieger, a former senior executive at Virgin America, warns that the 46% Qantas-owned airline still has a long way to go as it works its way through the final phase of its three-stage transformation programme. Key risks remain, including an uncertain global economy, volatile fuel costs and the threat of renewed competition. And somewhere along the line, the commercial/political/legal squabble with Qantas needs to be resolved.

With further details, Emirates-Qantas partnership will have global reach; Qantas adjusts partners

While the seismic Emirates-Qantas partnership was announced as covering northern Africa, Europe, the Middle East, New Zealand and Southeast Asia – by all means a large portion of the world – Emirates and Qantas are laying the seeds for the partnership to possibly cover the entire world. In the short term, Emirates could finally tap into leisure demand from the Pacific Islands, largely out of reach from Dubai, via Jetstar and Qantas services. In the medium term, Qantas could partner on Emirates' services to South Africa if Australian regulators prohibit Qantas and South African Airways from working together.

Back in the short term, Qantas has further detailed the alliance's impact on its current grouping of partners. Emirates and Qantas, as Air New Zealand and Virgin Australia did in their alliance, have pledged to maintain current trans-Tasman capacity levels and say they are considering launching new routes to Auckland from Adelaide and Perth. Further network changes could be in the pipeline for the carriers as they seek interim authorisation of their partnership in order to effectively participate at the upcoming IATA slots conference.

Qantas' annus horribilis and net loss behind it, will gain from restructure but with overcapacity

Declaring that Qantas has "reached an inflection point", CEO Alan Joyce sees the group heading into a comparatively calmer environment after an annus horribilis capped with significant restructuring costs that led the group to post a net loss of AUD245 million (USD257 million), its first since privatisation in 1993.

The group is continuing two key themes of late: first, reduced capital expenditure and, second, domestic growth to maintain a line-in-the-sand 65% market share. While Qantas is cancelling 35 firm order for the 787-9, it is likely to exercise retained options in order to support the growth of Jetstar, which will still take delivery of 15 787-8s.

Domestic overcapacity will show no signs of relenting as Qantas plans to increase 1H2013 mainline capacity by 9-11% to ensure it maintains its marketshare share against an expanding Virgin Australia. Yields, already weakened, will continue to fall. Bright spots emerge as new partners – Emirates – or closer partnerships – China Eastern – become increasingly possible.

AirAsia X, accelerating growth in response to Scoot, looks to capture Asian market once and for all

Low-cost long-haul leader AirAsia X was relatively quiet throughout the announcement of low-cost long-haul operations from Singapore Airlines (in the form of Scoot) and Cebu Pacific but has delivered a sharp competitive response by unveiling plans to nearly double its growth over the next two years. AirAsia X plans to add seven Airbus A330-300s in 2013 and another seven A330-300s in 2014, allowing the carrier each year to potentially add 10 daily roundtrip services and more than double its current A330 fleet of nine. Some AirAsia X A330s for the first time will be based outside of its present Kuala Lumpur hub.

This growth is not merely one-upping but an opportunity for the larger AirAsia Group to permanently set itself on a different level from competitors as it fully realises the long-aspired dream of a pan-Asian network. The Asian budget market could be re-defined, with future competition only over who gets second place. While the spotlight may be on new competitor Scoot, the greatest implications are on the Jetstar Group, whose parent company Qantas is fighting an aggressive domestic battle in Australia, a casualty of which could be Jetstar's growth potential.

World's largest airlines cautious with capacity. Some big moves in global airline rankings

Emirates is close to overtaking American Airlines and becoming the third largest airline by available seat kilometres (ASKs) after the Dubai-based carrier's massive 19% increase in capacity over the last year. Emirates' current capacity is close to 30% above levels of just two years ago, according to Innovata. Over the same period, American has cut capacity by about 8% while larger rivals United Airlines and Delta Air Lines have slashed ASKs by over 16%, according to Innovata. Interestingly, were American Airlines to combine with US Airways it would become the world's biggest airline - some 4% larger than Delta by ASKs based on Innovata capacity figures for Aug-2012.

The other big movers over the past two years include Ryanair, which has leapfrogged China Southern and US Airways into the Top 10, and Turkish Airlines, which has soared into 17th position (from 27th two summers ago) thanks to an astonishing 52% increase in ASKs. easyJet has also moved up several places to be just outside the Top 20, while Japan's ANA and JAL have fallen outside the top 20 grouping.