Introduction
Welcome to the ratings section. This section provides you with our unique Statto Index ratings for each team. These cover all English, Scottish and European leagues on this site and also all International teams.
The Science Behind Statto Index
The Index has been developted and tested over many years, starting in the 1980s before the World Wide Web era. Our testing uses around 25 years worth of results and approximately 10 years of bookmakers odds to test the accuracy and profitability of the system. Naturally, no system is perfect and we continuously monitor it's performance. For the mathematically minded, the correlation between our forecasts and actual results is just over 0.9, which means that approximately 90% of the final outcomes are explained by the prior forecasts.
Index Values
The Statto Index values are based on an arbitrary scale with no maximum value (Chelsea reached a high in the 990s early in 2006). The important factor is the relative difference of a teams Index to that of its opponent. The greater the difference, the greater a team is expected to win. The index is based only on league matches but is also used to forecast cup matches.
Trend Values
The trend values indicate the direction that a teams Index is moving. This is a good pointer to the current form of a team and can indicate that a team may perform a little better/worse than their Index suggests. The magnitude of the trend indicates how quickly their Index is changing.
Season Points Forecasts (Leagues Only)
These are forecasts for a teams expected league points total for the season. They are calculated from the teams actual points and forecasts for all of their remaining games based on their current Index value and the Index values of their opponents. This can be used to highlight value odds in outright markets.
International Statto Index
These cover all 207 FIFA affiliated countries plus any additional countries that have played in major championships (currently seven additions). The Index is based only on competitive games and includes the finals and qualifiers of the World Cup, European Championships, Copa America, CONCACAF Gold Cup, African Nations Cup, Asian Cup, Oceanea Cup and Confederations Cup. We have performed extensive analysis of the inter-confederation differences and believe we have got these reasonably close. Although much criticised, this was probably the only area that the FIFA system failed before they changed it for the worst on 12 July 2006. Now the FIFA system does not include home advantage in its calculations - now that is over-simplification!
Historic Statto Index
We have run the Index over all domestic English and Scottish leagues from their beginnings in 1888 as well as every major international match since the first Copa America in 1910. We will publish more on these over the next few months!
Forecasts
The forecast odds on this site are produced by our Forecasting Engine using our unique Statto Index ratings. The Index currently covers 29 leagues together with all International teams - a total of over 750 teams. Our forecasted odds are based on a true 100% book and therefore do not take account of any commission or projected profit margin - this is left to you based on personal preference. Odds are forecasted for both match and outright markets.
Our site quotes four types of odds: Fractional, Decimal, American and Binary, which you can choose from the user preferences at the top of each page. Our forecasts are shown in a standard set of units, similar to those used by bookmakers and exchanges and when not displayed in decimal, may require rounding. Our odds are shown up to 990 then a special '999' value that indicates that the selection has forecast odds of 1000+.
