France Committed to Mali Intervention as early as October 2012

While President Francois Hollande announced that French forces would intervene in January, satellite imagery suggests the decision was probably made at least three months prior in October 2012.

Interventions are always interesting affairs. The reasons behind them quite frequently differ which is why various parties in the international community have a difficult time trying to create a norm for intervention. If you’re reading those who comment on such affairs, you’ll find mention of everything from national interests to human rights. If you’re like me, you probably side more with the former.

By intervening yet again in another former French colony, France continues to demonstrate its high level of influence in Sub-Saharan Africa, something it can’t command anywhere else on the globe. As far as French President Francois Hollande is concerned, he’s following in the footsteps of previous French leaders from Charles de Gaulle to Nicolas Sarkozy.

That said, opinion polls continue to suggest that Francois Hollande is by far one of the most despised leaders in France. Recent polls published in April show those in favor falling to 25 per cent, just slightly better than his predecessor’s floor at 21 per cent.

Despite the growing criticisms of the Hollande presidency, the intervention into Mali was at least one option both sides of France’s political spectrum could agree upon. However, just prior to the intervention in January, Hollande’s approval rating was at 36% which suggests the need to get jobs, like in most countries, over-rides the spectacle of foreign adventure.

While the intervention hasn’t improved Hollande’s image in the eyes of the French public, it may have helped make a case for keeping certain elements in the defense budget. The French defense white paper — whose publication was delayed for several months till well into the intervention — was released at the end of April and suggests very little has changed in terms of France’s defense posture.

Further details about the report can be read at the FT here.

For whatever reason, it would appear that France was planning to intervene in Mali even prior to Security Council authorization. Two indicators have presented themselves on imagery as early as October signalling  France’s intentions.

First, we have France’s Harfang drone apron to consider. The handhelds released by France’s Ministry of Defense suggests the military had constructed a new apron for the drone deployment. Open source satellite imagery confirms that apron under construction as early as 19 October. This activity is noted just seven days after the transitional government sent a letter to the Security Council requesting the authorization for international force.

As can be observed above, leveling activity began in October and continued into November, with parts of the apron visible by early December. A French press release in February stated that the Harfang was active in-theater during the month of January which also fits with this timeline.

Low resolution imagery from January and March confirms that the hangar was built in this location. In addition, the orientation of the hanger is corroborated by handhelds released prior.

Secondly, there’s the pre-positioning of equipment under consideration. Satellite imagery from 23 October 2012 of N’Djamena International Airport — a location supporting over 1,000 French troops — showed an An-124 heavy strategic airlift platform landing at the base. According to handhelds released by the Ministry of Defense, a couple of An-124s were hired to deliver assets from France to surrounding air bases near Mali.

Satellite imagery in January showed the An-124 landing at Mali’s Bamako airfield while imagery in March showed it departing the forward position.

The October imagery also corresponds with diplomatic efforts on behalf of France and allied countries to push for intervention. Read more about that here, here, here, and here.

To sum it up, the observations presented would suggest France had already planned to intervene in Mali quite early on before all the mechanics of the international system were underway. It perhaps demonstrates, not only the primacy of logistics in military affairs, but also how technology has provided the opportunity to gain insight into the workings of a system that’s often left to the realm of intrigue.

In the era of the shrinking defense budget, it’s highly unlikely that France would have utilized its resources to put equipment in-theater, unless it had received confirmations from the necessary parties that intervention would be confirmed by the Security Council.

It probably goes without saying, but in the case of future events, it’s monitoring these types of activities with inexpensive satellite imagery that can provide early warning of things to come.