Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
Date: January to March 2014
Near median flows more likely
Streamflow forecasts for the January to March period suggest that near median flows are more likely at 25 out of 69 forecast locations.
Across eastern Australia, near median December streamflows were recorded at 23 of the 69 locations and low streamflows at 45 locations. High December streamflow occurred only at Swanfels in the Condamine-Culgoa basin. The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) remains neutral (neither El Niño nor La Niña), with all the main ENSO indicators remaining well within neutral bounds. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. A drier than normal season is more likely for large parts of eastern Australia. A wetter than normal season is more likely for Tasmania and western parts of Western Australia. Chances of a wetter or drier than normal season are roughly equal over the remainder of the country.
Australia Victoria Southern New South Wales Northern New South Wales Southern Queensland Northern Queensland Cape York Peninsula Northern Territory, or click on the rectangles on the Australia map below to select a particular region. Then click on the pie charts to go directly to the most recent forecasts.
Victoria
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for January to March 2014
Southern New South Wales
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for January to March 2014
Northern New South Wales
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for January to March 2014
Northern Queensland
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for January to March 2014
Southern Queensland
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for January to March 2014
Cape York Peninsula
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for January to March 2014
Northern Territory
Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts
for January to March 2014
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Moderate to high skill
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Low skill or missing climate data
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Very low skill or missing antecedent condition data
Note: The locations on the map are either site-based forecasts or total catchment inflow forecasts. Site information provides details on which locations are site-based or total inflow forecasts. For more details about how the pie chart forecasts are displayed go to the Frequently Asked Questions.
Low forecast skill for most locations
The forecast skill scores for the January to March period are high for 8 out of 69 locations, moderate for 16 locations, low for 20 locations and very low for 25 locations. Forecasts that have low skill are displayed as faded pie charts on the maps. Skill scores for these forecasts exceed those obtained from using the historical record to calculate probabilities (historical reference). The forecasts with very low skill are displayed as grey pie charts on the maps.
December catchment conditions
December rainfall was below to very much below average for most of Queensland and New South Wales. Parts of southwestern New South Wales and northern Victoria recorded above average December rainfall. The Murray-Darling Basin recorded only 21.3 mm of rain, the driest December since 2001. More information about December weather and climate conditions can be found in the climate summaries for Victoria, New South Wales, Queensland and Northern Territory.
Near median December streamflows were recorded at 23 of the 69 locations and low streamflows at 45 locations. High December streamflow was recorded only at Swanfels, located in the Condamine-Culgoa basin in southern Queensland.
Streamflow forecasts for January to March
Near median and low streamflows for the January to March forecast period are more likely at 25 and 18 locations respectively. High flows are forecast to be more likely only at Rocks Crossing, located in the Manning basin in northern New South Wales. The forecast is not issued due to very low skill scores or missing streamflow data at 25 locations mainly in Queensland, Northern Territory and New South Wales.
The tropical Pacific has remained neutral with respect to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) since mid-2012, with all the main ENSO indicators remaining well within neutral bounds. International climate models surveyed by the Bureau of Meteorology indicate the persistence of this neutral ENSO phase through at least the austral autumn. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral. It typically does not influence the Australian climate from December to April.
The chances of exceeding median rainfall during the January to March period are 30 to 40% over most of Queensland, parts of the eastern Northern Territory, most of New South Wales and northeastern Victoria. In other words, the chances of below average rainfall are 60 to 70% over these areas. Conversely, the chance of exceeding median rainfall is greater than 60% over parts of western Western Australia and most of Tasmania. The chance of receiving a wetter or drier than normal January to March period is roughly equal (i.e., close to 50%) over the remainder of the country.
For the latest ENSO Wrap-Up go to ENSO Wrap-Up. For detailed information on Australia's climate go to Climate Information. For the latest rainfall outlook go to Rainfall outlook.
