National Health Expenditure Projections, 2012–22: Slow Growth Until Coverage Expands And Economy Improves
- Gigi A. Cuckler1,*,
- Andrea M. Sisko2,
- Sean P. Keehan3,
- Sheila D. Smith4,
- Andrew J. Madison5,
- John A. Poisal6,
- Christian J. Wolfe7,
- Joseph M. Lizonitz8 and
- Devin A. Stone9
- 1Gigi A. Cuckler (DNHS{at}cms.hhs.gov) is an economist in the Office of the Actuary at the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS), in Baltimore, Maryland.
- 2Andrea M. Sisko is an economist in the CMS Office of the Actuary.
- 3Sean P. Keehan is a senior economist in the CMS Office of the Actuary.
- 4Sheila D. Smith is a senior economist in the CMS Office of the Actuary.
- 5Andrew J. Madison is an actuary in the CMS Office of the Actuary.
- 6John A. Poisal is the deputy director of the National Health Statistics Group, CMS Office of the Actuary.
- 7Christian J. Wolfe is an actuary in the CMS Office of the Actuary.
- 8Joseph M. Lizonitz is an actuary in the CMS Office of the Actuary.
- 9Devin A. Stone is an economist in the CMS Office of the Actuary.
- ↵*Corresponding author
Abstract
Health spending growth through 2013 is expected to remain slow because of the sluggish economic recovery, continued increases in cost-sharing requirements for the privately insured, and slow growth for public programs. These factors lead to projected growth rates of near 4 percent through 2013. However, improving economic conditions, combined with the coverage expansions in the Affordable Care Act and the aging of the population, drive faster projected growth in health spending in 2014 and beyond. Expected growth for 2014 is 6.1 percent, with an average projected growth of 6.2 percent per year thereafter. Over the 2012–22 period, national health spending is projected to grow at an average annual rate of 5.8 percent. By 2022 health spending financed by federal, state, and local governments is projected to account for 49 percent of national health spending and to reach a total of $2.4 trillion.
