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Starting in 1996, Alexa Internet has been donating their crawl data to the Internet Archive. Flowing in every day, these data are added to the Wayback Machine after an embargo period.
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The Wayback Machine - https://web.archive.org/web/20160821034310/http://www.the-numbers.com:80/movie/Star-Trek-Beyond
The Enterprise crew explores the furthest reaches of uncharted space, where they encounter a mysterious new enemy who puts them and everything the Federation stands for to the test.
Overall, the weekend lived up to expectations, with Suicide Squad doing a little better than expected at the expense of some of its competition. For example, Jason Bourne had one of the worst sophomore stint declines of the summer. The overall box office rose 20% from last weekend hitting $229 million. Suicide Squad earned more this weekend than the entire box office earned this weekend last year, so it should come as no surprise that the year-over-year growth was stunning at 73%. Year-to-date, 2016 saw its lead over 2015 grow by more than $100 million hitting 5.3% at $7.16 billion to $6.80 billion.
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One of the most talked-about debuts of the year is shaping up to be one of the better ones. Suicide Squad will open with about $135 million, according to Warner Bros., easily the biggest weekend in August, beating Guardians of the Galaxy’s $94.3 million in 2014. It’s also the 3rd-best weekend in 2016, and should earn a little more than Deadpool’s $132 million debut. In spite of these awesome stats, there’s about as much negative press for the film as positive, and some of it not entirely fair.
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Before we talk about the weekend predictions... Warner Bros. owns D.C. Comics and a 30% share in Rotten Tomatoes. So accusing Rotten Tomatoes of having an anti-D.C. bias is silly. Starting a petition to shut down Rotten Tomatoes is a sign you really need a more productive hobby. I suggest Magic: The Gathering. ... Moving on... Suicide Squad is the last major release of the summer. Unfortunately, its reviews are among the worst of any $100 million movie released this summer. The counter-programming this week is Nine Lives, a talking animal / body swap movie that still has no reviews on Rotten Tomatoes. Many analysts think it will fail to reach the top five during its opening weekend. This weekend last year was the weekend Fantastic Four opened. Suicide Squad should crush that movie at the box office. In fact, it should earn more than the top ten earned last year.
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There was no surprise at the top of the weekend box office chart, as Jason Bourne easily won with $59.22 million. This was on the high end of expectations, but not quite as strong as Star Trek Beyond’s opening last weekend. Both of the other two new releases, Bad Moms and Nerve, also did well. In fact, none of the films we talked about before the weekend missed expectations. The overall box office was down a little compared to last weekend, but a 3.1% decline is hardly noteworthy. More importantly, the box office was 30% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2016 saw its lead over 2015 nearly double to $260 million or 4.0%. Being ahead $6.84 billion to $6.58 billion at this point of the year is a good position to be in, but it wouldn’t take a major collapse for 2016 to fall behind 2015 by year’s end.
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The month of July comes to an end this weekend and there are three wide releases hoping the month goes out on a high note. Jason Bourne is the only one with a shot at first place, while Bad Moms is looking to become a solid counter-programming hit. Meanwhile, Nerve opened on Wednesday and it just doesn’t want to slip between the cracks. As far as holdovers are concerned, Star Trek Beyond's daily numbers are average for the summer, but that will still be enough to hit the century mark over the weekend. It won’t be the only film to reach $100 million over the weekend. This weekend last year was led by Mission: Impossible - Rogue Nation with $55.52 million. I don’t think Jason Bourne will top that, but since the second best film, Vacation, made less than $15 million, I think 2016 will win on depth.
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Skiptrace earned first place internationally with $47.37 million over the weekend for a total opening of $63.04 million. The film dominated the box office in its native China with $45.58 million last weekend for a four-day opening of $61.25 million. This is the best opening in Jackie Chan's career, but unfortunately, it is only getting a limited release here.
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Café Society's record lasted just one week as Don’t Think Twice earned $92,835 in its lone theater. I expect it to expand rapidly over the coming weeks. Café Society fell to second place with $16,999, but it did expand to 50 theaters, so this is still impressive. The number one film of the weekend, Star Trek Beyond, earned an average of $15,085. The only other film in the $10,000 club was Train to Busan with an average of $10,547 in 28 theaters. However, Kabali came close with $8,380 in 236 over the three-day weekend and $16,539 including Thursday.
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As expected, Star Trek Beyond earned first place on the weekend box office chart and while it didn’t live up to my lofty predictions, it still did very well with $59.25 million. The next two wide releases, Lights Out and Ice Age: Collision Course, had nearly identical openings with $21.69 million and $21.37 million respectively. For Lights Out, this is a breakout opening and means it is practically guaranteed a profit and will likely get a sequel. For Collision Course, it is a sign that they should retire the franchise. Both The Secret Life of Pets and Ghostbusters earned $20 million, meaning every film in the top five topped that mark, tying with the record most recently set last May. The overall box office was 20% higher than last week at $196 million. This is also 29% higher than the same weekend last year. Since last week, the year-over-year competition got a little closer at $6.55 billion to $6.41 billion. 2016 is still ahead by 2.2%, but this is less than the ticket price inflation.
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Star Trek Beyond will fall just short of $60 million at the box office this weekend, according to Sunday estimates from Paramount. The studio has the film coming in at $59.6 million over three days, which is substantially short of the $79.2 million earned on debut by Star Trek (the reboot) in 2009, and the $70.2 million made by Star Trek Into Darkness. The so-so start comes in spite of excellent reviews, which are now running at 84% on Rotten Tomatoes, and the franchise seems to have trouble reaching beyond its core audience.
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Star Trek Beyond got off to a fast start with $5.5 million during its midnight previews. This is $2 million more than Ghostbusters made last weekend, plus it has betterreviews. On the other hand, it is a sequel, so the comparison isn’t perfect. We could compare it to the previous installment in the franchise, but that film opened on a Wednesday. X-Men: Apocalypse earned $8.4 million in its previews, but that film earned weaker reviews and is a comic book movie, which tend to be more front-loaded. I was a little more bullish than most with my prediction, but this result make me feel a lot better.
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Star Trek Beyond leads a pack of three wide releases this weekend and there are some who think it will have the best live-action release since Captain America: Civil War. That would be great news for the overall box office. Ice Age: Collision Course has to deal with direct competition and terrible reviews, but it should still do relatively well thanks to goodwill its franchise has built up. The final new release of the week is Lights Out. This low-budget horror film won’t need to earn $20 million over the weekend to break even, but there’s a slim chance it will. In fact, The Secret Life of Pets should easily add another $20 million to its running tally, and Ghostbusters has a good shot at doing the same. So we could have five films earning $20 million over the weekend for the first time in a year. We should have three films earning more than $25 million. Meanwhile this weekend last year, there were no films that earned more than $25 million. Hopefully 2016 will win the year-over-year competition with ease.
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The winners of our Green With Envy contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Ghostbusters opening weekend were...
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There are three wide releases opening next week, but there’s not a lot of doubt which film will top the chart. Star Trek Beyond should win this weekend over Ice Age: Collision Course, although both should have no trouble getting to $100 million domestically. Meanwhile, Lights Out is nothing more than counter-programming and if it tops $50 million, it will be seen as a serious hit. Because there doesn’t seem to be a race for top spot, Star Trek Beyond is the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Star Trek Beyond.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a winners’ choice Frankenprize consisting of either a multi-disc TV on DVD release, two previously reviewed movies, or three single-disc kids DVDs.
Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a winners’ choice Frankenprize consisting of either a multi-disc TV on DVD release, two previously reviewed movies, or three single-disc kids DVDs.
Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will also win a winners’ choice Frankenprize consisting of either a multi-disc TV on DVD release, two previously reviewed movies, or three single-disc kids DVDs.
Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay!
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It's July 1st, which is Canada Day. To celebrate, I wanted to give a gift to my American readers down south, so here's a bunch of "u"s. U, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u, u. Now you can spell words like "colour" and "neighbour" correctly. As for the July preview... June wasn't a good month, despite Finding Dory being on pace to become the biggest hit of the year so far. Most other films failed to match expectations and as a result, 2016's lead over 2015 has nearly evaporated. In fact, ticket sales are below last year's pace. So how does July look in comparison? Well, last July, there were five films that earned more than $100 million, led by Minions, which earned more than $300 million. This July, there are five films that should earn more than $100 million, led by The Secret Life of Pets, which should earned around $250 million. I don't think July 2016 will live up to July 2015, but it should be close. Maybe if one of the expected midlevel hits is a surprise $100 million hit, or if two more of the $100 million hits crack $200 million, then the month will look great. Or one of the expected $100 million hits could flop and 2016 will actually fall behind 2015, even without taking into account ticket price inflation.
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The shaded area represents the expected performance range for a film, based on its opening weekend box office. 95% of films fall within the shaded area. If a film trends towards the top end of the shaded area, it has good legs compared to the average film; if it trends towards the bottom end of the shaded area, it has poor legs. The predictive area is based on movies from the past 5 years.
Full financial estimates for this film, including domestic and international box office, video sales, video rentals, TV and ancillary revenue
are available through our research services. For more information, please contact us at research@the-numbers.com.
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