Contest: Hold Your Breath

August 18th, 2016

There are two and a half wide releases next weekend with Don’t Breathe being the widest release and very likely the only film earning good reviews. I think it is the easy choice for the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Don’t Breathe.

Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize consisting of a previously reviewed full-season TV on DVD release, two previously reviewed movies, or three single-disc kids DVDs. Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize consisting of a previously reviewed full-season TV on DVD release, two previously reviewed movies, or three single-disc kids DVDs. Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will win the final Frankenprize, as described above.

Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay! More...

Weekend Predictions: Dog Days of Summer are Here

August 18th, 2016

Summer is over, at least as far as the box office is concerned. There are three films opening wide and another expanding wide-ish, but none of them are expected to crack $20 million over the weekend. War Dogs should come the closest, but even then, it is only aiming at the midteens. Kubo and the Two Strings is the best of the new releases, but recent history isn’t kind to stop-motion animated films. The final wide release of the week is Ben-Hur. This film cost nearly $100 million to make and it is expected to bomb spectacularly. Hell or High Water is expected to expand semi-wide, perhaps wide enough to score a spot in the top ten. Suicide Squad will likely win the box office race, but this has less to do with the film’s strength and more to do with the weak competition. Speaking of weak competition, this weekend last year, Straight Outta Compton earned more than all three wide releases combined. 2016 won’t be able to match it at the top of the chart, but there’s much better depth this year than last year, so 2016 should win in the year-over-year comparison. More...

Theater Counts: Suicide Squad Remains Top Dog

August 18th, 2016

Suicide Squad will lose 331 venues this weekend, but remain the film in widest release. The theater count hasn’t been announced yet for Kubo and the Two Strings, but Focus Features had it pegged around 3,100 this time last week, and it will clearly fall far short of the 3,924 claimed by Suicide Squad for the weekend. War Dogs will land in 3,258 locations and is the widest new release to have reported so far. Ben Hur will launch in 3,084, which is a weak number for a film that needs to make a lot of money. More...

International Box Office: Suicide Slips, but Still Tops Chart with $58.7 million

August 17th, 2016

Suicide Squad saw its numbers fall dramatically, but still held onto top spot on the international chart with $58.7 million in 62 markets. The film’s totals rose to $242.5 million internationally and $465.1 million worldwide. The film’s two biggest new markets were Argentina, where it earned $2.5 million, and Italy, where it pulled in $2.15 million. Its best holdover was the U.K., where it remained in first place despite falling 62% to $5.52 million in 587 theaters for a two-week total of $28.90 million. At this pace, the film will be over $500 million worldwide before the weekend, while it is on track for $750 million worldwide in total. That should be enough to break even before its home market run. More...

Contest: For Pete’s Sake: Winning Announcement

August 17th, 2016

The winners of our For Pete’s Sake contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Pete’s Dragon opening weekend were... More...

Theater Averages: Hell of a Good Time

August 16th, 2016

Hell or High Water led the way on the Theater Average Chart with an average of $19,417 in 32 theaters. The studio was hoping for only half of that, so this is a fantastic start. The biggest new release of the week, Sausage Party, was next with an average of $11,042, while the overall number one film, Suicide Squad, was right behind with $10,232. More...

Home Market Releases for August 16th, 2016

August 16th, 2016

There are a lot of releases on this week’s list, but most of them are like The Angry Birds Movie on DVD, Blu-ray Combo Pack, or 4K Combo Pack. They are good, but not good enough to be a Pick of the Week contender. The best new release is The Fits, but it is only coming out on Video on Demand. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Suicide Slumps to $43.54 million, Sausage Soars with $34.26 million

August 16th, 2016

The overall box office was a little weaker than expected with Suicide Squad falling nearly as fast as Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice did. On the other hand, Sausage Party opened better than expected earning a solid second place. Overall, the box office pulled in $172 million over the weekend, which is 25% smaller than last weekend. Compared to the same weekend last year, the box office was 16% higher and that’s the most important number. Year-to-date, 2016 has pulled in $7.43 billion, putting it 5.3% ahead of last year’s pace. The box office just needs to maintain its $380 million lead throughout the rest of the summer to be considered a success. More...

Featured Blu-ray / DVD Review: Ratchet and Clank

August 15th, 2016

Ratchet and Clank opened in late April, which is a bad time of the year to release a movie, as the first of the Summer blockbusters is just around the corner. Even so, Ratchet and Clank was a serious box office disappointment. Is it as bad as its box office numbers? Or would it have thrived during a better time of year? More...

Weekend Estimates: Pete’s Dragon and Suicide Squad Soft, Sausage Party Firm

August 14th, 2016

A precipitous drop from last weekend won’t be enough to knock Suicide Squad off its perch at the top of the box office chart, according to studio estimates released on Friday. But a 67% fall is steep, even by modern standards. On the bright side, it is less than Batman v Superman’s 69% decline in its second weekend earlier this year, at least according to the estimates. A weak Sunday would put the two films basically neck-and-neck on that front, and it looks increasingly likely that Suicide Squad will end with less than $300 million domestically. More...

Friday Estimates: Sausage Squad

August 13th, 2016

Sausage Party actually earned first place on Friday with $13.5 million, putting it just ahead of Suicide Squad. That lead won’t last, as new releases almost never has an internal multiplier as big as holdovers do. The film does have excellent reviews, but only earned a B CinemaScore. This could mean critics liked the film more than its target audience and it will have short legs. Or it could mean it is a more niche market release and it will be a cult classic in a few years. Regardless, a $33 million opening is in the works, which is excellent for a film that cost $19 million to make. More...

Rogue One: A Star Wars Story trailer

August 12th, 2016

Sci-fi adventure starring Felicity Jones and Diego Luna, directed by Gareth Edwards opens December 16 ... Full Movie Details.

A rogue band of resistance fighters unite for a daring mission to steal the Death Star plans. More...

Limited and VOD Releases: High Water Mark

August 12th, 2016

This week’s list of limited releases is full of films that are earning good reviews, but not great reviews, and they will struggle to survive in limited release. Then there’s Hell or High Water. The film’s reviews are just shy of 100% positive and it is going to expand wide next week. It should have the most impressive opening out of all of the films on this week’s list. It might not even be close. More...

Thursday Night Previews: Sausages get the Drop on the Dragon

August 12th, 2016

Sausage Party got off to a fast start with $3.25 million in previews. By comparison, Bad Moms earned $2 million during its previews two weeks ago, on its way to a $23.82 million opening weekend. If the two films had the same legs for their opening weekends, then we would be looking at a $38 million debut. Sausage Party does have better reviews that Bad Moms earned, but Bad Moms is aimed at a female demographic and generally speaking, women are less likely to rush out to see a movie during previews. So I think it is wise to be a little more cautious, but an opening weekend of over $30 million is still reason to celebrate. More...

Contest: Three Prizes for Two Strings

August 12th, 2016

Summer ends next week, as none of the three wide releases are expected to do well. That said, Kubo and the Two Strings is the only of the three films that are expected to earn good reviews. Since no film is expected to be a major hit, we might as well choose the best film as the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Kubo and the Two Strings.

Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a copy of Ratchet and Clank on Blu-ray Combo Pack, which comes out on the 23rd of August, so the winner will be announced on the street date. Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will win a Frankenprize consisting of a previously reviewed full-season TV on DVD release, two previously reviewed movies, or three single-disc kids DVDs. Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will win a second Frankenprize, as described above.

Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay! More...

Weekend Theater Counts: Pete’s Dragon Leads Charge Against Suicide Squad

August 11th, 2016

Suicide Squad won’t pick up any extra theaters in its second weekend in release, but it will remain the most widely-distributed film currently playing this weekend. Pete’s Dragon will be the widest opener as it debuts in 3,702 locations on Friday. Suicide Squad is expected to repeat at the top of the chart, and it will be helped by having over 500 more theaters: it stays in 4,255 venues this weekend. More...

Weekend Predictions: Party Time

August 11th, 2016

Before we talk about the weekend predictions... If you can read this, it means my transfer worked well enough and I can do work from my parents house while pet-sitting. I will be at my parents place for three weeks looking after their dog and cat. I was at their house for less than 30 minutes before stepping into a puddle of dog drool. It is going to be a very long three weeks. ... As for the releases for the week, they are all amazing. The film earning the weakest reviews at the moment is Sausage Party, which is earning 82% positive reviews. 82% positive is the weakest of the three wide releases. That's amazing. On the other hand, it won't be the biggest release of the week. Pete’s Dragon has a better than 50/50 chance at reaching $100 million in total; however, as a family film, it will start relatively slow, but have good legs. Finally, there’s Florence Foster Jenkins, which is an early Oscar contender. It is not opening in a lot of theaters, so it is going to need great word-of-mouth to thrive. None of these new releases will match last year’s number one film, Straight Outta Compton, so it will be up to Suicide Squad to keep 2016 on the winning track. I think it will collapse by more than 60%, but 2016 has a lot better depth than 2015 and it will come out on top. More...

International Box Office: Squad Scores $132 million Opening

August 10th, 2016

As expected, Suicide Squad easily won the international box office race pulling in $132 million in 57 markets. However, its results in individual markets were mixed when compared to its domestic opening, as well as when compared to Batman v Superman. For example, the film earned first place in Russia with $11.42 million over the weekend, while BvS opened with $7.84 million. It is also a little better than its debut here, given the size of the two markets, and the slumping rubles. On the other hand, the film managed $13.9 million in the U.K., compared to BvS’s opening of $20.66 million. Likewise, a $13.9 million opening in the U.K. is equivalent to about $90 million here, which is much less than its debut here. That’s still a huge opening, but not a monster opening. BvS finished with over $500 million internationally; if Suicide Squad finishes with just under $400 million internationally, it will break even, so the studio can’t be too upset. They could yell, “Damn the critics, full speed ahead.” and let the D.C. Extended Universe turn into another Transformers. Hit after hit, but critically reviled. More...

Contest: Live or Die: Winning Announcement

August 10th, 2016

The winners of our Live or Die contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Suicide Squad opening weekend were... More...

Theater Averages: Operation Excellence

August 9th, 2016

Operation Chromite, the South Korean war movie, opened on first place on the theater average chart with $31,662. This put it just ahead of the overall box office champion, Suicide Squad, which earned an average of $31,418. Little Men was next with an average of $15,184 in two theaters. The re-release of Elevator to the Gallows was close behind with $14,334 in its lone theater. The final film in the $10,000 club was Equity, with an average of $13,629 in four theaters during its second weekend of release. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Suicide Starts Strong with $133.68 Million, but Signs of Long-Term Weakness

August 9th, 2016

Overall, the weekend lived up to expectations, with Suicide Squad doing a little better than expected at the expense of some of its competition. For example, Jason Bourne had one of the worst sophomore stint declines of the summer. The overall box office rose 20% from last weekend hitting $229 million. Suicide Squad earned more this weekend than the entire box office earned this weekend last year, so it should come as no surprise that the year-over-year growth was stunning at 73%. Year-to-date, 2016 saw its lead over 2015 grow by more than $100 million hitting 5.3% at $7.16 billion to $6.80 billion. More...

Home Market Releases for August 9th, 2016

August 8th, 2016

It is a really slow week on the top with only a couple of main releases worth being a contender for Pick of the Week: Supergirl: Season 1 and Sweet Bean on DVD. The Nice Guys would also be a contender, but it is only coming out on Video on Demand this week and it is worth waiting for the Blu-ray Combo Pack. With only two real choices, Sweet Bean is my Pick of the Week. More...

Weekend Estimates: Suicide Squad Crashes into August Record Books

August 7th, 2016

One of the most talked-about debuts of the year is shaping up to be one of the better ones. Suicide Squad will open with about $135 million, according to Warner Bros., easily the biggest weekend in August, beating Guardians of the Galaxy’s $94.3 million in 2014. It’s also the 3rd-best weekend in 2016, and should earn a little more than Deadpool’s $132 million debut. In spite of these awesome stats, there’s about as much negative press for the film as positive, and some of it not entirely fair. More...

Friday Estimates: Suicide Sets August Daily Record with $65.13 million

August 6th, 2016

As expected, Suicide Squad broke the record for the biggest day in August with $65.13 million on Friday. Its opening day to preview multiplier was 3.17, which is not that much worse than the 3.28 earned by Guardians of the Galaxy in 2014. This is surprising, as Suicide Squad’s reviews have fallen to just 26% positive, while Guardians of the Galaxy earned 91% positive reviews. You would think word-of-mouth would tank Suicide Squad. Granted, it is just one day and perhaps it will fall as fast as Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice did throughout the rest of the weekend. Or perhaps moviegoers liked the movie significantly more than critics did. Its CinemaScore was a B+, which is not good, but not terrible. Or perhaps the lack of A-list comic book characters means it wasn’t able to get the average moviegoer as excited as they were for BvS, so it won’t be as front-loaded despite the worse reviews. Given this opening day, the film is on pace for $137 million, according to our model, which is on the very high end of expectations. That said, things might change tomorrow when we get the weekend estimates: the model’s range of uncertainty goes from $119 million at the low end to $154 million at the high end. More...

Limited and VOD Releases: Little Men leads Big List of Limited Releases

August 5th, 2016

There are quite a few limited releases on this week’s list that are earning good reviews. Little Men is the biggest new release, but there are many that should be seen. This includes The Little Prince, which is on Netflix starting today. More...

Thursday Previews: Suicide Has more than 20 million Reasons to Live - Update... sort of

August 5th, 2016

Suicide Squad started its domestic run last night with $20.5 million from its Thursday previews. This is the best previews since Captain America: Civil War and nearly double the previous August preview record of $11.2 million, held by Guardians of the Galaxy. This is great news for the studio. ... except for two small problems. This is 26% lower than Batman v. Superman and the two films earned identical reviews. If the two films have identical legs during their opening weekends, it will mean Suicide Squad will make $123 million over the weekend and $244 million in total. That’s not enough to revive the hopes of a DC Extended Universe that can rival the MCU. More...

Contest: For Pete’s Sake

August 5th, 2016

Next week is likely going to be the last weekend of summer, as Pete’s Dragon is the last film coming out this summer with a realistic shot at $100 million at the box office. The other two releases, Florence Foster Jenkins and Sausage Party, are pure counter-programming. If they make $100 million combined, then at least one of them will be seen as a success. Pete’s Dragon might not earn first place over the weekend, but it is the only real choice for the target film in this week's Box Office Prediction contest. In order to win, one must simply predict the opening weekend box office number for Pete’s Dragon.

Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going over, will win a Frankenprize consisting of a full-season TV on DVD release, two previously reviewed movies, or three single-disc kids DVDs. Whoever comes the closest to predicting the film's opening 3-day weekend box office (Friday to Sunday), without going under, will also win a Frankenprize, as described above. Finally, we will be choosing an entrant from the group of people who haven't won, or haven't won recently, and they will win the third Frankenprize, as described above.

Entries must be received by 10 a.m., Pacific Time on Friday to be eligible, so don't delay! More...

Weekend Theater Counts: Suicide Squad Lands in 4,255 Locations

August 4th, 2016

Suicide Squad may end up not living up to the hype, but it won’t be for lack of trying. The dark superhero movie will open in 4,255 theaters this weekend, according to Warner Bros.. That’s far more than Deadpool’s 3,558 back in February, which was enough for a $132 million opening weekend. It’s on par with the 4,242 theaters that played Batman v Superman, which delivered a $166 million debut, on the back of similarly-dismal reviews. A performance somewhere between those two numbers is widely expected, although an August release date works against it, and we’re going with a more modest $125 million. More...

Weekend Predictions: Suicide Hopes to Have Long Life at the Box Office

August 4th, 2016

Before we talk about the weekend predictions... Warner Bros. owns D.C. Comics and a 30% share in Rotten Tomatoes. So accusing Rotten Tomatoes of having an anti-D.C. bias is silly. Starting a petition to shut down Rotten Tomatoes is a sign you really need a more productive hobby. I suggest Magic: The Gathering. ... Moving on... Suicide Squad is the last major release of the summer. Unfortunately, its reviews are among the worst of any $100 million movie released this summer. The counter-programming this week is Nine Lives, a talking animal / body swap movie that still has no reviews on Rotten Tomatoes. Many analysts think it will fail to reach the top five during its opening weekend. This weekend last year was the weekend Fantastic Four opened. Suicide Squad should crush that movie at the box office. In fact, it should earn more than the top ten earned last year. More...

International Box Office: Jason is a Bourne Leader earning $50.74 million

August 4th, 2016

Jason Bourne opened in first place on the international chart with $50.74 million in 5,006 theaters in 48 markets. There were two markets that had a claim for biggest opening for the film: South Korea and the U.K. The film earned third place in South Korea with $8.02 million on 826 screens over the weekend for a total opening of $11.39 million. Meanwhile in the U.K., it earned second pace with $10.09 million in 561 theaters. The film earned first place in Australia with $5.85 million on 554 screens. Compared to the biggest hit in the franchise, The Bourne Ultimatum, these results were mixed. On the one hand, Ultimatum finished with less than $15 million in South Korea during its total run there, so an opening of over $11 million is amazing. On the other hand, Ultimatum opened with nearly $13 million in the U.K., which is close to 30% more than Jason Bourne’s opening. It will take a few more openings, plus a look at the film’s legs, to tell where it has finished. More...

Contest: Bourne Free: Winning Announcement

August 4th, 2016

The winners of our Bourne Free contest were determined and the entrants with the closest predictions for Jason Bourne opening weekend were... More...

Trolls Trailer

August 3rd, 2016

Animated adventure from DreamWorks Animation, with the voices of Anna Kendrick and Justin Timberlake opens November 4 ... Full Movie Details. More...

Theater Averages: Don’t Think has earned First Place Twice

August 3rd, 2016

Don’t Think Twice repeated as champion of the theater average chart. It expanded from 1 to 5 theaters but still earned a very healthy average of $31,022. It will expand further. Indignation was the best of the new limited releases, earning an average of $23,281 in 4 theaters, while Equity was close behind with an average of $20,609 in 4 theaters. The overall number one film, Jason Bourne, was next with an average of $14,708. Hieronymus Bosch, Touched by the Devil earned $12,064 in 1 theater over the weekend and $19,076 from Wednesday through Sunday. A couple of documentaries rounded out the $10,000 club. Miss Sharon Jones earned $10,323 in 1 theater, while Gleason managed an average of $10,176 in 9 theaters. More...

Home Market Releases for August 2nd, 2016

August 3rd, 2016

It is the beginning of August, a.k.a., the beginning of TV on DVD season. While there are a few prominent releases in that category, the biggest release is Batman: The Killing Joke, which is still a hot mess, but this time on Blu-ray. There are plenty of smaller releases that are worth picking up, including April and the Extraordinary World. Its reviews are nearly 100% positive and the Blu-ray Combo Pack is the Pick of the Week. More...

Hacksaw Ridge Trailer

August 2nd, 2016

War drama starring Andrew Garfield, directed by Mel Gibson opens November 4 ... Full Movie Details.

The true story of Desmond Doss who, in Okinawa during the bloodiest battle of WWII, saved 75 men without firing or carrying a gun. He was the only American soldier in WWII to fight on the front lines without a weapon, as he believed that while the war was justified, killing was nevertheless wrong. As an army medic, he single-handedly evacuated the wounded from behind enemy lines, braved fire while tending to soldiers and was wounded by a grenade and hit by snipers. Doss was the first conscientious objector to ever earn the Congressional Medal of Honor. More...

Weekend Wrap-Up: Jason Bourne Treks to the top of the Chart with $59.22 million

August 2nd, 2016

There was no surprise at the top of the weekend box office chart, as Jason Bourne easily won with $59.22 million. This was on the high end of expectations, but not quite as strong as Star Trek Beyond’s opening last weekend. Both of the other two new releases, Bad Moms and Nerve, also did well. In fact, none of the films we talked about before the weekend missed expectations. The overall box office was down a little compared to last weekend, but a 3.1% decline is hardly noteworthy. More importantly, the box office was 30% higher than the same weekend last year. Year-to-date, 2016 saw its lead over 2015 nearly double to $260 million or 4.0%. Being ahead $6.84 billion to $6.58 billion at this point of the year is a good position to be in, but it wouldn’t take a major collapse for 2016 to fall behind 2015 by year’s end. More...

The Hollars Trailer

August 1st, 2016

Ensemble comedy directed by, and starring John Krasinski, with Anna Kendrick, Sharlto Copley, Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Charlie Day, Margo Martindale and Richard Jenkins opens August 26 ... Full Movie Details.

John Hollar, a struggling NYC artist is forced to navigate the small middle-American town he left behind when news of his mother's illness brings him home. Back in the house he grew up in, John is immediately swept up in the problems of his dysfunctional family, high-school rival and an over-eager ex-girlfriend as he faces impending fatherhood with his girlfriend in New York. More...

2016 Preview: August

August 1st, 2016

July did reasonably well, thanks mostly to The Secret Life of Pets, which will top $300 million shortly and could earn double its nearest competitor when all is said and done. That said, there were also a quartet of $100 million hits as well, so the month had good depth as well. August isn’t as lucky. There is one film that is expected to earn $100 million during its opening weekend, Suicide Squad, and one more that is expected to reach $100 million in total, Pete’s Dragon. There could be a surprise hit among the rest of the releases, (my long shot with a shot is Sausage Party) but for the most part, the rest of the wide releases would be happy with just $50 million at the box office. Last August was a disaster and Straight Outta Compton was the only hit of the month. Unless Suicide Squad bombs compared to expectations, 2016 will come out ahead in the year-over-year comparison. More...