February 28th, 2016
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It’s Oscar day and, if all goes to plan, I will be live-blogging the ceremony tonight. Here is the list of nominees marked according to predictions from our readers, and my personal wishes. Nominees in Bold are the ones predicted to win by our readers (we’ll have a full rundown of the predictions at noon, after the contest ends). If I am predicting a different film, those are in Italics. Meanwhile, the nominees I want to win, but don’t think will win, are Underlined. There are a few categories where the film I really think deserves the award was not even nominated, plus a few I don’t have a real opinion on.
If you haven’t done so already, it’s not too late to enter our Oscar competition, and win all Best Picture nominees on Blu-ray or DVD.
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January 15th, 2016
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The Oscar nominations were announced at 5:30 am Pacific time. Nothing is good that early in the morning. Worse still, this was a terrible year for snubs, especially when it comes to diversity of the nominees. The voters for the Oscars are 94% white and 77% male... but that's still more diverse than the list of nominees. The Revenant led the way with 12 nominations and it is expected to win a few of those, while it is a serious contender in most of the categories it was nominated in.
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January 9th, 2016
The BAFTA nominations were announced and you can read them on their site... in alphabetical order. Alphabetical order is very useful in most circumstances, but not here. On the other hand, the nominees within each category are not presented in alphabetical order. ... Are the BAFTAs trolling us? As for the actual nominees, the big winners here are Bridge of Spies and Carol, both of which earned nine nominations. For Carol, this is just another impressive score, but this was a pleasant surprise for Bridge of Spies.
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January 6th, 2016
The Writers Guild of America nominees were announced and there are only a few surprises here. Additionally, one of these three races seems too close to call at this point.
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January 4th, 2016
We are getting back to normal for the home market releases. There are no major first run releases, but one of the biggest limited releases of 2015 hits the home market. Sicario earned nearly $50 million after starting in limited release and the Blu-ray Combo Pack is the Pick of the Week. It wasn't the only contender for that honor, as Deathgasm (DVD or Blu-ray) and Infinitely Polar Bear (DVD or Blu-ray) were also in contention.
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December 20th, 2015
There are two major reasons conspiring to make this week's list of home market releases terrible. Firstly, Christmas is on Friday. Even if you pre-ordered something on this list now, there's a good chance it won't get to you in time for Christmas. Secondly, the Steam Winter Sale begins on Tuesday. Of the films on this week's short list, The Brain That Wouldn't Die is the "best", for a certain definition of that word. It's a very entertaining bad movie and the Blu-ray even has the MST3K episode as an extra.
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November 24th, 2015
Carol had a festive opening earning just over $250,000 in four theaters for an average of $63,378. That's the third best average for an opening this year, just ahead of Ex Machina and just behind Sicario. The overall box office leader, The Hunger Games: Mockingjay - Part 2, was next with an average of $24,591. Legend was next with an average of $21,709 in four theaters. That's a good start, but its reviews suggest not so good legs. Speaking of long legs, Brooklyn remained in the $10,000 for the third week in a row earning an average of $10,270 in just over 100 theaters.
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November 17th, 2015
There was only one new release in the $10,000 club and it had to settle for third place on the per theater chart. This left Spotlight in first place with an average of $22,561 in 60 theaters. This is a great result for a film expanding from five to 60 theaters. Brooklyn also expanded, going from five theaters to 23 theaters, while its per theater average remained strong with an average of $20,868. James White was the only new release in the $10,000 club debuting with $12,007 in its lone theater.
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November 5th, 2015
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There were only two films in the $10,000 club this weekend, with Love leading the way with an average of $14,651 in two theaters. Heart of a Dog remained in the $10,000 club with $10,316 in one theater. That bodes well for its long-term chances.
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October 27th, 2015
Suffragette started its potential Oscar-run earning first place on the per theater chart with an average of $19,056 in four theaters. That suggests room to grow, but perhaps not enough to expand truly wide. It will need to last in theaters long enough for Awards Season nominations to be announced and if it can do well then, it will boost its box office chances. Heart of a Dog was next with an opening of $13,893 in one theater. Room was the only holdover in the $10,000 club earning an average of $10,856 in 23 theaters. It will earn some measure of mainstream success, but unless Brie Larson earns some major Awards Season nominations, it won't expand truly wide.
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October 21st, 2015
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Room was in a close race for top spot on the per theater with last week's winner, but it came out on top with an average of $29,575 in four theaters. Steve Jobs was right behind with an average of $25,212 in 60. This film is going to expand wide this weekend and could lead the weekend. The Assassin earned an average of $11,973 in four theaters, which is strong for a foreign-language film. Meanwhile, Truth was right behind with an average of $11,039 in six.
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October 13th, 2015
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Steve Jobs was expected to be a hit in limited release, but not this big of a hit. The film scored more than $500,000 in just four theaters for an average of $130,381, which is the best per theater average for a film released in 2015. In fact, it is nearly double the previous best, Sicario. The second best average of the week was $16,543, which was earned by Goodbye Mr. Loser in 22 theaters.
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October 13th, 2015
There was some great news at the box office this weekend, as both The Martian and Hotel Transylvania 2 reached the century mark. On the other hand, Pan bombed performing even worse than expected. I don't think there's really any controversy in saying it bombed, as the $150 million movie opened with less than Alexander and the Terrible Horrible No Good Very Bad Day made last year. The overall depth was also weak, which led to the box office falling 21% from last week and 20% from last year. 2015 is still way ahead of 2014, $8.30 billion to $7.87 billion, and it would take a serious collapse for that lead to evaporate before the end of the year.
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October 9th, 2015
The only wide release of the week is Pan, which is being described as critically panned, because entertainment writers have a pathological need to use puns. I hate puns and I'm still guilty of this. Despite being the only new release, Pan isn't expected to open in first place, or even second place. The Martian is expected to repeat on top, while Hotel Transylvania 2 should have another strong hold remaining in second place. This weekend last year was in some ways the polar opposite, as there were four new releases in the top ten, plus another that opened in eleventh place. However, the result was the same, as Gone Girl remained in first place. The Martian should top Gone Girl's performance, while Hotel Transylvania 2 and Pan should match Dracula Untold and Alexander and the Terrible Horrible No Good Very Bad Day. However, after that, 2014's depth seems too strong and 2015 will likely lose in the year-over-year comparison. That's fine, as 2015's lead is huge and there are still a few (nearly) guaranteed monster hits left to open this year.
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October 8th, 2015
Only two films were in the $10,000 club this weekend. He Named Me Malala led the way with an average of $15,221 in four theaters, which is very strong for a documentary. The film's reviews are only good, but the appeal here is Malala Yousafzai and I don't think moviegoers are too upset that the film is a little shallow. The Martian was close behind with an average of $14,176.
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October 6th, 2015
It was an interesting weekend as The Martian was in a tight race with Gravity for Biggest October Weekend. It didn't quite set the record, but it came close enough to be the big story all weekend. Hotel Transylvania 2 held on better than expected, which helped the overall box office grow 8.3% from last week to $149 million. More importantly, the top two films this year were well ahead of the top two films last year, Gone Girl and Annabelle. This helped the overall box office grow 1.8% from the same weekend last year. Most people were not expecting that. Year-to-date, 2015 now has a 6.0% lead over 2014 at $8.14 billion to $7.68 billion. It would take a relatively serious collapse for 2015 to not come out on top at the end of the year.
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October 4th, 2015
Just a week after Hotel Transylvania 2 broke September’s weekend record, The Martian has a shot at setting a new mark for October, although it’s going to be a challenge. Fox is projecting the sci-fi thriller will make $55 million this weekend, just a fraction behind Gravity’s $55.8 million debut two years ago this weekend. There’s just a sliver of a chance that The Martian will take the record, but it would take a great performance on Sunday.
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October 3rd, 2015
The Martian earned $2.5 million during its Thursday midnight showings and Fox is estimating a total of $18 million on Friday to easily win at the box office. By comparison, Gravity opened with $1.4 million during its midnight showings and $17.48 million on opening day. Gravity went on to earn $55.79 million opening weekend. Should The Martian have the same internal multiplier, it would pull in $57 million over the weekend, which is just ahead of the record for Biggest October Weekend. However, The Martian’s higher midnight showings and lower Friday-proper numbers likely means it will be a little more front-loaded, and it should pull in $53 million over the weekend. This is almost exactly what was predicted on Friday and it also means Gravity’s October record is likely safe for at least one more year.
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October 2nd, 2015
The Martian is the only true wide release this week, but it might not be the only new release in the top ten. The Sci-fi adventure film is earning award-worthy reviews and is also being praised for being an inspiring portrayal of science on the big screen. Sicario is expanding its theater count to 2,500, which should push it into the top five. The Walk opened in IMAX screens on Wednesday, but it missed the top ten place and it will likely fall. This weekend last year, Gone Girl and Annabelle both opened with between $37 million and $38 million. The Martian will open with more than either of those films opened with. However, it won't open with more than both of them combined. We will need good growth from Sicario and solid legs from Hotel Transylvania 2 to match last year's result.
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October 1st, 2015
September ended on a record note with the debut of Hotel Transylvania 2. Additionally, there was great depth and 2015's lead over 2014 grew to nearly $500 million. How do things look going forward? The month starts out with The Martian, which should have no trouble becoming the biggest hit of the month and might even top $200 million. On the other hand, no other film is expected to get to $100 million. There's only one or two that will even come close. Fortunately, last October was very similar with one $100 million hit, Gone Girl, while two other films came close, Annabelle and Fury. It looks like it will be up to the depth films from both years to determine which year comes out on top.
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September 29th, 2015
It is very rare for a limited release to repeat on top of the per theater chart, because if a film does well enough to lead the per theater chart, they tend to expand so much that repeating on top becomes nearly impossible. Sicario expanded from 6 to 59 theaters, but still managed first place with an average of $29,107. At this pace, it will expand semi-wide, at the very least. Lost in Hong Kong was next with an average of $19,916 in 27 theaters. It is already more than halfway to its first major milestone after just one weekend of release. I think more and more Chinese films will get limited releases here. 99 Homes was next with an average of $16,127 in two theaters. This is enough to suggest some potential to expand, especially if it can turn its reviews into Award Season Buzz. The overall box office champ, Hotel Transylvania 2, was next with an average of $12,910. The final film in the $10,000 club was Mississippi Grind with $12,434 in its lone theater. It looks like it will be another success for A24.
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September 28th, 2015
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Hotel Transylvania 2 was surprisingly strong this past weekend, topping expectations and entering the record book. It wasn't the only new release of the week. The Intern matched expectations nearly perfectly. On the other hand, Everest struggled and The Green Inferno barely made a peep. The overall box office pulled in $138 million, which is 22% higher than last weekend and 29% higher than the same weekend last year. 2015's lead over 2014 has grown to $470 million or 6.3%. This year we have a running tally of $7.96 billion compared to $7.49 billion from last year. There's just three months left in the year, so 2015's lead looks safer and safer every passing weekend.
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September 27th, 2015
Hotel Transylvania 2 is off to an impressive start this weekend with a new record weekend for September, according to Sony’s estimate released on Sunday. The animated comedy is expected to earn $47.5 million, beating the record held by the first film in the franchise, which debuted with $42.5 million this time in 2012. It’s also on the high end of expectations, which had it coming in the high 30s or low 40s. It’s a welcome turnaround for Adam Sandler, after a string of flops, but even more so for Sony Pictures, which has had a dismal year so far, with no film earning more than Pixels $76.7 million before now.
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September 22nd, 2015
Sicario not only led the weekend on the Per Theater Chart with an average of $66,881 in six theaters. It also had the best per theater average for any film released in 2015, beating out the previous record-holder, Ex Machina, by about $7,500. On a related note, there's already reports of a sequel in the works. Jeremy Scott: The People's Designer was up next with an average of $18,750 in twelve theaters. Finally, there's Everest. This film not only earned a spot in the top five overall, but pulled in an average of $13,251 in over 500 theaters.
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September 20th, 2015
Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials will win the weekend at the box office, according to studio estimates released on Sunday, with a very solid $30.3 million. That’s down a bit from The Maze Runner’s $32.5 million this weekend last year, but the difference is small enough that a good performance on Sunday and slight increases in the actuals for Friday and Saturday could actually push the sequel slightly ahead. Either way, the franchise seems on fairly solid ground, although the increase in budget for the second film to $61 million from $34 million the first time around suggests it won’t be as profitable. As always, international box office will be key, and early signs there are good, with $78 million already in the bank.
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September 19th, 2015
The Fall Season starts in earnest this weekend with the release of a Young Adult, dystopian-future action movie and an Older Adult dramatic thriller (not to mention a couple of pieces of counter-programming) vying for box office dollars, and, in one case, Oscar attention. Both films are getting off to good starts, based on Friday’s estimates. Maze Runner: The Scorch Trials is off to the best start with $11 million for the day and a projected weekend around $30 million. Black Mass will have to settle for second place with $8.8 million on Friday and around $25 million for the weekend.
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September 18th, 2015
We are getting close to Halloween, which explains the three horror / horror related movies coming out this week. However, while Cooties and the other two films likely won't find an audience, that doesn't mean there are no potential box office hits on this week's list. Both Sicario (Reviews) and Pawn Sacrifice (Reviews) could do well in theaters.
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