What does the Trump era mean for Canada? A guide to what’s coming

It’s official now: Donald Trump is the U.S. president. Check back here for the latest news, analysis and opinion on what that could mean for Canada, from protectionism and the economy to pluralism and immigration. (And Americans: If you’ve considered moving to Canada, we have some pointers on why that might not be so easy or such a good idea.)

How the transition will work

Donald Trump was sworn in as president on Jan. 20, leaving Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s government to get used to a U.S. leader dramatically unlike the one before him, and unlike the one that Ottawa’s political class expected to win.

On Jan. 10, Mr. Trudeau – who carefully avoided direct criticism of Mr. Trump during the election campaign – shuffled his cabinet to make Chrystia Freeland the new Foreign Affairs Minister and Ottawa’s point person on Canada-U.S. relations and trade. He’s also assigned Andrew Leslie, an ex-general with ties to former military commanders in the Trump inner circle, to be Ms. Freeland’s parliamentary secretary, with special responsibilities for improving Canada-U.S. relations.

Canadian officials have been meeting senior officials in the incoming Trump administration to brief them on key issues. Mr. Trudeau’s cabinet ministers will arrange one-on-one meetings with their U.S. counterparts, who are still awaiting confirmation by Congress. Here’s a more detailed primer on Canadian cabinet ministers to watch and who their counterparts in Washington will be.

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Trade and the economy

When it comes to trade, Canada and the U.S. are a stark contrast right now. One is led by a liberal who champions global trade; the other has just elected a nativist conservative who, in his inauguration speech, pledged an “America first” attitude to not only trade, but immigration, foreign policy and taxes.

Mr. Trump, like his Democratic rival Hillary Clinton, campaigned in opposition to the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a deal Canada signed onto in February. But he also pledged to renegotiate the North American free-trade agreement, promising a better deal with Canada and Mexico. Any new agreement would have dramatic implications for Canadian businesses and the flow of goods and workers between the countries.

Wilbur Ross, Mr. Trump’s pick for Commerce Secretary, will be the main architect of the new U.S. trade policy. In his confirmation hearings, the billionaire investor told Congress that “all aspects of NAFTA will be put on the table,” but he has given Ottawa a heads-up on two issues in particular that the Trump administration wants to tackle: the independent dispute-settlement mechanism between member states, and the country-of-origin rules that specify which products can be shipped across their borders duty-free. Working alongside Mr. Ross will be Robert Lighthizer, Mr. Trump’s pick for U.S. trade representative, who served as deputy U.S. trade representative (with an ambassador’s rank) in the Reagan administration.

While Canadians wait to see how the new trade relationship develops, here are some resources about the politics behind it and how economic uncertainty over a Trump presidency might affect your personal finances.

More reading on personal finance and business:

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Climate change

Mr. Trump – who once called climate change a hoax perpetuated by China, in a tweet he later said was a joke – is preparing to completely reverse the Obama administration’s promises to curb greenhouse-gas emissions, reviving coal-based industry and supporting the Keystone XL oil pipeline from Alberta. Mr. Trudeau, whose government made ambitious emissions-reduction promises at the Paris conference last November, wants Canada to have a national carbon-pricing program, but getting provincial premiers to agree has been a delicate balancing act, and Mr. Trump’s rise to power threatens to upset that.

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NATO and foreign policy

Mr. Trudeau and Mr. Trump differ widely on the role of NATO, and finding common ground on global security policy could be a tricky balancing act.

Mr. Trump says the 28-nation North Atlantic Treaty Organization is obsolete, and has made warm overtures to Russia, which has been in a tense standoff with NATO in Eastern Europe since Moscow’s 2014 annexation of Crimea from Ukraine. Mr. Trump’s pick for Defence Secretary, ex-general James Mattis, seems more positive about the alliance and has accused Russia of trying to “break” NATO.

Meanwhile, Mr. Trudeau has said Canada, which is sending troops to Latvia to help NATO’s mission to deter Russian aggression in Europe, will continue to support the alliance. Ms. Freeland, his Foreign Affairs Minister, is a vocal critic of Russian President Vladimir Putin, and has been banned from entering Russia since the previous Conservative government imposed economic sanctions on Moscow for annexing Crimea.

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Gender equality

Mr. Trudeau – a self-professed feminist whose gender-balanced 2015 cabinet made headlines around the world – makes an unusual ally with Mr. Trump, who was under fire throughout the campaign for sexist rhetoric toward Ms. Clinton and others, a 2005 video in which he boasted about groping women and allegations of sexual assault from more than a dozen women.

Thousands of women, including many Canadians, are rallying in the U.S. capital on Jan. 21 for the Women’s March on Washington, with other protests being held solidarity around the world.

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Race, pluralism and immigration

Mr. Trump’s anti-immigration rhetoric, including a promise to build a wall along the Mexican border, won him support from white supremacist groups and far-right conservatives during the election, and stoked fears of a new era of American racism – fears that came true in the election’s immediate aftermath, with hundreds of racist incidents reported on social media.

As president, Mr. Trump may begin to distance himself from more extreme proposals; after the election, a statement about banning Muslim immigration quietly disappeared from the Trump campaign website, but reappeared later, and Mr. Trump shifted to talk of “extreme vetting” rather than an outright ban.

But critics say Mr. Trump’s victory – and the generally whiter, wealthier and more segregated voter base that made it possible – has cast a pall on the American conversation about race and intolerance, and Canada is not exempt from that conversation either. Here are some resources to help with that.

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Canadian conservatism

Canada’s Conservative Party is due to choose a new leader in May, and at least one is already taking lessons from Mr. Trump’s success as the party seeks a new face to unseat the Liberals. In a fundraising e-mail to supporters, Kellie Leitch said the Americans “threw out the elites” by electing Mr. Trump, adding: “It’s an exciting message and one that we need delivered in Canada, as well.” Other Conservatives are worried about bringing Trumpism to Canada, and some outsiders say they’ve joined the party simply to vote against Ms. Leitch. Here’s some more background on other candidates in the race.

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So you want to move to Canada

The night of Mr. Trump’s election win saw a huge (or, as Mr. Trump might say, “yuge”) spike in interest in Americans moving north, and Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada’s website suffered outages due to heavy traffic.

Not so fast, Americans: Immigration lawyers say the path to Canadian citizenship isn’t an easy one, and unless Americans move here for a job with exemptions under NAFTA (the trade deal Mr. Trump wants to renegotiate), employers will need to prove the need to hire an American before securing a work visa. Here’s a primer from Michelle Zilio on the issues involved in Americans coming to Canada, and why immigration experts think a northward exodus is unlikely.

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With reports from Reuters, Associated Press and Globe staff

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