Technology report
The Future of Cooling
Opportunities for energy-efficient air conditioning
Cooling
Cooling energy use in buildings has doubled since 2000, making it the fastest growing end-use in buildings, led by a combination of warmer temperatures and increased activity.
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As incomes rise and populations grow, especially in the world’s hotter regions, the use of air conditioners is becoming increasingly common. In fact, the use of air conditioners and electric fans already accounts for about a fifth of the total electricity in buildings around the world – or 10% of all global electricity consumption.
Over the next three decades, the use of ACs is set to soar, becoming one of the top drivers of global electricity demand. Moving ACs average energy performance towards the current level of best-available technology or beyond is key to dampen the impact of rapidly growing cooling demand on the electricity system.
Over the next three decades, the use of ACs is set to soar, becoming one of the top drivers of global electricity demand. Moving ACs average energy performance towards the current level of best-available technology or beyond is key to dampen the impact of rapidly growing cooling demand on the electricity system.
Last updated Jun 16, 2020
Key findings
Global air conditioner stock, 1990-2050
OpenThe world faces a 'cold crunch'
Without efficiency gains, space cooling energy use could more than double between now and 2040 due to increased activity and use of air conditioning. In the Efficient World Scenario, energy efficiency for cooling offsets much of the climate, activity and structure impacts to limit cooling energy growth between now and 2040 to 19%.
Space cooling intensity index in the Sustainable Development Scenario, 1990-2030
OpenMost people purchase new air conditioners that are two to three times less efficient than the best available model
Energy demand for space cooling has more than tripled since 1990, making it the fastest-growing end use in buildings. Space cooling was responsible for emissions of about 1 GtCO2 and nearly 8.5% of total final electricity consumption in 2019. While highly efficient AC units are currently available, most consumers purchase ones that are two to three times less efficient. To put cooling on track with the SDS, energy efficiency standards need to be implemented to improve AC energy performance more than 50% by 2030. Together with improved building design, increased renewables integration and smart controls, this measure would cut space cooling energy use and emissions and limit the power capacity additions required to meet peak electricity demand.
Analysis
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Analysis and outlooks to 2040
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Our work
The Kigali Cooling Efficiency Program (K-CEP) is a philanthropic collaboration launched in 2017 to support the Kigali Amendment of the Montreal Protocol and the transition to efficient, clean cooling solutions for all.
This site serves as a progress tracker for the Kigali Amendment of the Montreal Protocol.
