Commentary
The Covid-19 crisis is undermining nuclear power’s important role in clean energy transitions
Nuclear
Nuclear power has historically been one of the largest contributors of carbon-free electricity globally and it has significant potential to contribute to power sector decarbonisation.
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Countries envisaging a future role for nuclear account for the bulk of global energy demand and CO2 emissions.
Nonetheless in many jurisdictions nuclear power has trouble competing against other, more economic alternatives, such as natural gas or modern renewables. Concerns over safety and broader public acceptance remain obstacles to development.
With nuclear power facing an uncertain future in many countries, the world risks a steep decline in its use in advanced economies that could result in billions of tonnes of additional carbon emissions.
Nuclear power plants contribute to electricity security in multiple ways. Nuclear plants help to keep power grids stable and can be a good complement in decarbonisation strategies since, to a certain extent, they can adjust their operations to follow demand and supply shifts. As the share of variable renewables like wind and solar photovoltaics (PV) rises, the need for such services will increase.
Nonetheless in many jurisdictions nuclear power has trouble competing against other, more economic alternatives, such as natural gas or modern renewables. Concerns over safety and broader public acceptance remain obstacles to development.
With nuclear power facing an uncertain future in many countries, the world risks a steep decline in its use in advanced economies that could result in billions of tonnes of additional carbon emissions.
Nuclear power plants contribute to electricity security in multiple ways. Nuclear plants help to keep power grids stable and can be a good complement in decarbonisation strategies since, to a certain extent, they can adjust their operations to follow demand and supply shifts. As the share of variable renewables like wind and solar photovoltaics (PV) rises, the need for such services will increase.
Last updated Jun 16, 2020
Key findings
Nuclear power output change year-on-year in leading markets, 2020 Q1 and estimates
OpenGlobal nuclear power generation was down 3.5% in the first quarter of 2020
Global nuclear power generation was down 3.5% in the first quarter of 2020 compared with the same period in 2019, pulled down by electricity demand reductions in most markets as a consequence of the Covid-19 crisis and fewer reactors in operation, with China being the exception. In IEA estimates for 2020, nuclear power declines by about 3% from 2019. A faster recovery would see higher electricity demand and some new reactors completed in 2020, leading to just a 1% decline.
Global nuclear capacity by scenario, 2000-2040
OpenA doubling in annual capacity additions is needed to be on track with the IEA's Sustainable Development Scenario
In 2019, 5.5 GW of additional nuclear capacity were connected to the grid and 9.4 GW were permanently shut down, bringing global capacity to 443 GW. New projects were launched (about 5.2 GW), and refurbishments are under way in many countries to ensure the long-term operations of the existing fleet. Nevertheless, while the existing nuclear fleet remains the world’s second most important low-carbon source of electricity, new nuclear construction is not on track with the SDS. According to current trends, nuclear capacity in 2040 will amount to 455 GW – well below the SDS level of 601 GW. Additional lifetime extensions and a doubling of the annual rate of capacity additions are therefore required.
Cumulative CO2 emissions avoided by global nuclear power in selected countries, 1971-2018
OpenNuclear power can play an important role in clean energy transitions
Nuclear power has avoided about 55 Gt of CO2 emissions over the past 50 years, nearly equal to 2 years of global energy-related CO2 emissions. However, despite the contribution from nuclear and the rapid growth in renewables, energy-related CO2 emissions hit a record high in 2018 as electricity demand growth outpaced increases in low-carbon power. In the absense of further lifetime extensions and new projects could result in an additional 4 billion tonnes of CO2 emissions, underlining the importance of the nuclear fleet to low-carbon energy transitions around the globe.
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Analysis
Tracking report
Nuclear Power
Tracking progress 2020
Flagship report
Global Energy Review 2020
The impacts of the Covid-19 crisis on global energy demand and CO2 emissions
Statistics report
Energy Technology RD&D Budgets 2020
Tracking trends in spending on research, development and demonstration
Country report
Energy Policies of IEA Countries: United States 2019 Review
Country report
Energy Policies of IEA Countries: United Kingdom 2019 Review
Fuel report
Nuclear Power in a Clean Energy System
Tracking report
Tracking Power 2019
Following three years of decline, power sector emissions have increased since 2017
Events
25 Feb 2019
Nuclear power in a clean energy system
28 Jun 2018
International High-Level Meeting on Nuclear Energy: Today and Tomorrow
25 Jan 2017
The promise of fusion - innovation and the role of industry
28 Sep 2015
