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Trade Candidate: Trevor Story

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There’s a strong case to be made that the Rockies out to auction off the rights to star shortstop Trevor Story this winter. While it’s tempting to hold tight and hope he can help lead a renaissance, it’s a fair sight easier to imagine that backfiring than working out.

The Rockies had a taste of short-season contention, but had a dreadful 2020 run deficit (275-353) and have played decisively sub-.500 ball since the start of 2019. There’s still a strong core of talent, but the path to contention is awfully questionable given the Rockies’ meager supporting cast and injury questions (Jon Gray, David Dahl, Scott Oberg) … not to mention the quality of the NL West competition.

The Colorado organization has a number of needs and unclear means to address them all sufficiently. The team has mostly finished paying for its recent swings and misses in free agency and has already begun drawing down payroll. But it’s still on track to spend north of $130MM (assuming they tender most arb-eligibles) even before making any additions. Owner Dick Monfort didn’t exactly suggest he’ll be buying up new talent, writing to season ticketholders that “there will be nothing normal about this offseason as the industry faces a new economic reality.”

It’s a scenario in which many teams will explore their options with quality veterans. But who to deal? The Rox dabbled in some major scenarios last winter but ultimately kept third baseman Nolan Arenado. It’d be awfully difficult to strike a reasonable deal now, given his hefty salary and subpar offensive season. Charlie Blackmon is too expensive to foist onto another team after a middling season. They could certainly move German Marquez, but that’d mean giving up a 25-year-old rotation building block with a good contract situation.

Enter Story, a mid-prime star shortstop who is still youthful (28 in ten days) but entering his final season of team control. It’s much the situation that Arenado was in a few years back, except that Story will command a rather less onerous salary ($17.5MM) than Arenado had lined up for his final season of arbitration.

Arenado ended up inking a monster extension rather than testing free agency. That’s an avenue here, too … in theory, anyway. Monfort certainly didn’t sound like he was plotting out another nine-figure deal. While Story would never have commanded Arenado-like money, and certainly won’t now during a pandemic, he’d still cost a pretty penny.

Make no mistake: Story is a truly elite position player. If anything, he’s underrated, perhaps due to his roller-coaster first two seasons in the majors. Since he settled in, Story has compiled the tenth-most fWAR in baseball over the past three years.

We honestly don’t need to dive in too far to understand the point here. Story once had big pop and a ton of strikeouts, but he figured out the latter problem without sapping his power. He drove his K rate down to 24.3% in the just-completed season and is still driving the ball with authority. He’s in the top 5% leaguewide in speed and plays outstanding defense.

How about the demand side? Story isn’t cheap, but he’s an absolute bargain who would instantly elevate a lineup. Acquiring him would only require a one-year commitment and bring with it the likelihood of a qualifying offer (with anticipated draft compensation) this time next year. There’s always the potential for an extension as well.

Demand may not be widespread — it’ll tick up next winter when several big-time shortstops hit the open market — but it’s not hard to envision teams having keen interest. The Angels, Reds, Phillies, and Yankees all make particular sense on paper. Story is good enough that a team could consider acquiring him and playing him at third base, or instead moving an existing shortstop to another spot on the diamond.

It’ll be hard for the Rockies to go forward with moving Story. Keeping him at least until mid-season would at least give the club a chance. Then again, it would also mean paying half his salary, risking injury or decline, and taking the qualifying offer off of the table (which will reduce the value that an acquiring team would anticipate receiving in a swap). Unless Monfort and GM Jeff Bridich are able to mount a surprise run at an extension with Story’s reps, biting the bullet and getting a trade done this winter looks to be the best option.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images.

Latest On Justin Turner

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The coda to an unforgettably weird 2020 baseball season came when Justin Turner celebrated with his Dodgers teammates in the wake of a mid-World Series COVID-19 diagnosis. That incident led Major League Baseball announce a “full investigation into this matter” in a statement that flatly panned Turner for his recklessness.

Now, the league and MLB Players Union are “moving closer to a resolution” of the case from a disciplinary perspective, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic (Twitter links). Just when we’ll learn of the outcome isn’t known; neither is it clear what range of punishment is under contemplation.

The league and union typically interact regarding disciplinary matters. There’s a reason that most PED or domestic violence-related suspensions are announced alongside the player’s decision not to challenge the result.

That was all the more necessary here. The league’s coronavirus protocols were jointly developed and obviously required significant buy-in from union officials and the players they represent. And Turner’s covid-shedding celebration presents a situation without any obvious precedent.

It seems we’ll have a final determination — and an opportunity for Turner to make some amends — before free agency begins in earnest (whenever that may be). Turner is one of the top available players on the open market this winter. It’s an open question whether and how the surreal scene will impact his free agency.

MLBTR Poll: NL Rookie of the Year

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National League Rookie of the Year Award finalists have been announced. The voting will come down to Brewers right-handed reliever Devin Williams, Phillies third baseman Alec Bohm and Padres infielder Jake Cronenworth. Here’s a look at what they did this year…

  • Williams was likely the most dominant reliever in baseball in 2020. The 26-year-old wasn’t the hardest-throwing pitcher in the sport – though he did average an impressive 96.5 mph mean on his fastball – but how do you beat a .33 ERA/.86 FIP over 27 innings? By the way, Williams posted 17.87 K/9 against 3.0 BB/9.
  • Bohm didn’t join the Phillies until the middle of August, but he quickly solidified his spot in their lineup. The 24-year-old slashed an outstanding .338/.440/.481 (138 wRC+) with four home runs in 181 plate appearances.
  • Cronenworth, whom San Diego acquired from Tampa Bay last winter, proved to be a gem for the Padres in 2020. He played all four infield positions and batted .285/.354/.477 (125 wRC+) with four HRs over 192 PA during his first MLB season.

Who’s the NL Rookie of the Year? (Poll link for app users)

Mets Sign Mallex Smith, Jose Peraza, Arodys Vizcaino

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The Mets have signed 11 minor league free agents, including outfielder Mallex Smith, infielder/outfielder Jose Peraza and reliever Arodys Vizcaino, according to Tim Britton of The Athletic.

The speedy Smith was a 3.5-fWAR and 40-steal player with the Rays as recently as 2018, but his production has gone downhill since then. While Smith did steal 46 bases with the Mariners the next season, he didn’t hit much then, and his offensive issues continued this year. He’s the owner of a terrible .220/.290/.323 line across 613 plate appearances in the past two seasons. Nevertheless, Smith could now succeed free agent Jake Marisnick as the Mets’ backup for Brandon Nimmo in center field.

The Red Sox signed Peraza, previously a Red, to a $3MM guarantee last offseason. That deal didn’t work out for Boston, as Peraza recorded a meek .225/.275/.342 line over 120 PA. It was the latest below-average season at the plate for Peraza, who has historically been an underwhelming option at the plate.

Vizcaino, 29, has had some enormously successful seasons with the Braves in the past, but injuries have destroyed his career of late. Vizcaino hasn’t pitched since April 7, 2019, after which he underwent shoulder surgery. He hasn’t taken the mound in the majors since then, but perhaps he’ll recover and emerge as a buy-low steal for the Mets next season.

Latest On Red Sox, Alex Cora

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One year after his ouster in Boston, former Red Sox manager Alex Cora continues to look like a serious candidate for their current opening in the dugout. Cora had an in-person meeting with Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom and general manager Brian O’Halloran last Friday as they seek a replacement for fired manager Ron Roenicke, Alex Speier of the Boston Globe reports. They met in Cora’s native Puerto Rico, according to Chris Cotillo of MassLive.com.

This could set up a second Red Sox stint for Cora, who managed the team from 2018-19 and led it to a World Series title (’18) and a 192-132 regular-season record. Despite the success the Red Sox had under Cora, the two sides parted ways last winter after Major League Baseball gave him a one-year suspension him for his role in Houston’s 2017 sign-stealing scandal (Cora was the Astros’ bench coach then). Cora’s now eligible to return.

Along with Cora, the Red Sox have narrowed their search to Marlins bench coach James Rowson, Pirates bench coach Don Kelly, Yankees bench coach Carlos Mendoza and Phillies player information coordinator Sam Fuld. Cora’s the only member of the group with major league managerial experience. Industry sources view him as the favorite for the Boston job, per Cotillo.

Brewers Add Quintin Berry To Coaching Staff

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The Brewers announced their 2021 coaching staff Wednesday, which includes a new but familiar name: former big league outfielder Quintin Berry. He’ll take the place of longtime third base coach Ed Sedar, who is transitioning from the dugout to a new role as an advisor to the Major League coaching staff.

Berry, 35, recently wrapped up a 13-year career as an outfielder — one that included parts of five seasons in the Majors. The speedster was a frequent late-season pickup for playoff hopefuls seeking a pinch-running specialist. He logged 94 games with the 2012 Tigers as a rookie but never came close to that mark again, ultimately wrapping up his time in the Majors with a .262/.333/.364 slash with 29 steals in 31 tries over the course of 132 games.

Berry also played in parts of 13 minor league seasons, hitting .257/.350/.327 with a whopping 399 steals. The last of those 13 seasons came in the Brewers organization in 2018, and he’s since been working as a minor league outfield and baserunning coordinator with the Brewers organization.

The rest of the coaching staff will look familiar to Brewers fans. Pat Murphy returns for a sixth season as Craig Counsell’s bench coach. Jason Lane will be one of the two base coaches along with Berry — their specific base designation has not yet been specified. Hitting coach Andy Haines, pitching coach Chris Hook and bullpen coach Steve Karsay are all returning for their third years on the staff. Assistant hitting coach Jacob Cruz is back for a second season, and the Brewers are also returning Walker McKinven as their associate pitching, catching and strategy coach.

Trevor Bauer Rejects Qualifying Offer

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In a move that will surprise no one, Trevor Bauer will reject the Reds’ qualifying offer, agent Rachel Luba announced on Twitter. There was never any doubt that Bauer, a Cy Young finalist in the National League, would turn down the one-year, $18.9MM qualifying offer. By rejecting it, he’ll now be tied to draft pick compensation this winter, although that seems unlikely to stand in the way of him securing a considerably more lucrative contract.

Bauer, 30 in January, led the National League in ERA (1.73) and WHIP (0.79), and he paced all of Major League Baseball with two shutouts and a paltry 5.1 hits per nine innings pitched. The former No. 3 overall draft pick was every bit the ace that Cincinnati hoped he’d be when acquiring him prior to the 2019 trade deadline, largely putting his rough two-month showing with the 2019 Reds in the rearview mirror.

It was the second Cy Young-caliber season for Bauer in three years, as he also turned in 175 1/3 innings of 2.21 ERA ball with the 2018 Indians. Over the past three seasons combined, Bauer has worked 461 1/3 innings with a combined 3.18 ERA and 3.38 FIP in addition to averages of 11.2 strikeouts, 3.0 walks and 1.01 home runs per nine innings pitched.

Because Bauer rejected the qualifying offer, any club that signs him will now take a hit in next year’s draft. A team that paid the luxury tax (e.g. the Yankees) would surrender its second- and fifth-highest selections to sign Bauer. They’d also see their league-allotted international bonus pool reduced by $1MM. Clubs that receive revenue-sharing in a typical season and do not exceed the tax threshold are “only” required to sign their third-highest selection to sign a qualified free agent. Clubs that do not receive revenue sharing and stay under the luxury barrier are penalized by forfeiting their second-highest pick and seeing their international pool reduced by $500K.

As for the Reds, they’ll be a very interested onlooker with regard to Bauer’s contract. The right-hander made it known for years that he did not ever plan to sign a multi-year deal, instead maxing out his earnings on a perpetual series of one-year pacts. The shortened nature of the term would, in theory, allow for greater earning potential so long as Bauer remained healthy and pitched well; teams are willing to pay a higher annual rate in order to avoid long-term risk. Recently, however, both Bauer and Luba have indicated that he’ll consider long-term deals in free agency as well.

That’s of particular importance for the Reds, as they’d receive a compensatory pick after the first round of next year’s draft should Bauer sign elsewhere — but only if his total guarantee is greater than $50MM. If Bauer goes the one-year route, he’ll surely fall shy of that threshold, meaning the Reds would only be entitled to a pick between Competitive Balance Round B and Round 3 of the draft. Essentially, it’s a difference of roughly 45 spots in the draft order, as well as the considerably greater slot value that is associated with the higher of the two selections.

Starting Pitching Notes: Kluber, Nats, Orioles

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Agent B.B. Abbott tells MLB.com’s Jon Morosi that right-hander Corey Kluber has been cleared to begin a throwing program and is expected to progress to throwing off a mound early next month (Twitter link). That timeline provides a glimpse into where Kluber is at in his rehab from the Grade 2 teres major strain that limited him to just one inning with the Rangers this past season. It stands to reason that interested clubs may prefer to see how Kluber handles that next critical step before committing a guaranteed contract to him. A broken forearm and a strained oblique muscle held Kluber to 35 2/3 innings in 2019, so he’s tossed just 36 2/3 frames over the past two seasons. However, in his last full season, the 34-year-old Kluber finished third in AL Cy Young voting.

Some notes on the market for starting pitching…

  • The Orioles are still in the midst of a long rebuild, but GM Mike Elias told reporters this week that he plans to look at the free-agent market for rotation options (link via Rich Dubroff of BaltimoreBaseball.com). “I definitely think we’re going to be signing some starting pitchers,” Elias said. “You can never have enough.” Elias downplayed the magnitude of any potential signing, cautioning that any such moves could be on major league or minor league deals. Baltimore went the latter route last winter when inking Tommy Milone and Wade LeBlanc to soak up some innings, but that duo is gone — as is righty Asher Wojciechowski. The Orioles already have some young arms knocking on the door to potential rotation spots, headlined by left-hander Keegan Akin, but there’s so much uncertainty on the staff that it wouldn’t be a surprise to see multiple arms brought into the fold. “There will be additional competition in camp,” said Elias.
  • While many clubs are content to stay in-house to round out the back of their rotations, the Nationals’ history suggests that they’ll spend to add a No. 4 starter behind Max Scherzer, Stephen Strasburg and Patrick Corbin, writes Mark Zuckerman of MASNsports.com. That fourth spot in the rotation was held down by Anibal Sanchez in 2019-20 but now looks vacant once again after Sanchez’s 2021 option was unsurprisingly declined. While the Nats might not break the bank  to bring in a veteran, there’s a rather robust market for fourth and fifth starter types, including a host of high-profile names seeking bouncebacks from poor 2020 showings. Zuckerman notes that southpaw Robbie Ray, one such starter, was initially a Nationals draft pick and a prospect that GM Mike Rizzo had a difficult time trading in the Doug Fister swap with the Tigers back in 2013. As seen on MLBTR’s Top 50 Free Agent list, Ray is one of many options for clubs seeking rotation help.

Kolten Wong Has Heard From “At Least” Six Teams

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The Cardinals made what was an unpopular decision among many fans last week, buying out Kolten Wong’s $12.5MM club option for the 2021 season and making the now-two-time Gold Glove second baseman a free agent for the first time in his career. Wong spoke to Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch about the team’s decision in a must-read interview for Cards fans, calling it a “punch to the gut” after he’d given his “heart and soul to the organization.”

Goold reports that Wong has heard from “at least” six other clubs since free agency began — the Angels among them. It stands to reason that others will filter in as teams get a greater sense of their 2021 budgets and/or make other transactions that could create a stronger fit for Wong within their organizations. That said, Wong made clear that he’s “absolutely” open to a reunion with the Cards, even if he sounded somewhat disappointed that the team didn’t make an effort to work out a more creative alternative. Wong plainly stated that he’d have been open to restructuring his contract or backloading a deal to help offset the 2020 revenue losses.

Whether a return to the Cardinals is plausible remains unclear, however, given the apparent financial constraints that ownership is placing on the front office. President of baseball ops John Mozeliak must also determine how to proceed with franchise icons Yadier Molina and Adam Wainwright — both free agents themselves. Goold writes that the Cardinals have yet to initiate negotiations to re-sign Wong but hope to be in touch with him as his market develops.

Wong now joins a free-agent class of second basemen headlined by DJ LeMahieu and also featuring Jonathan Schoop, Cesar Hernandez and Tommy La Stella, among others. While LeMahieu obviously carries the most earning power of the bunch, Wong is arguably the second-best option on the market thanks to his blend of elite glovework, strong contact skills and perennially high on-base percentages.

The 2020 season was a down year in terms of power for Wong, who hit just one home run in 208 plate appearances, but he won his second Gold Glove and posted a strong .350 on-base percentage. Over the past four seasons, Wong has posted a combined .273/.356/.398 batting line with 25 home runs, 74 doubles, 11 triples and 43 stolen bases. In that span, Wong ranks 14th among all Major Leaguers, regardless of position, with 37 Defensive Runs Saved. He’s 16th in composite Ultimate Zone Rating in that same span.

Offseason Outlook: Los Angeles Angels

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The 2020 campaign was another disappointment for the Angels, who finished under .500 for the fifth straight year and expanded their playoff drought to six seasons. General manager Billy Eppler lost his job as a result, and the Angels are now searching for his replacement. Despite the Angels’ recent struggles, the next GM will inherit a high-payroll club with some blue-chip talent on its roster.

Guaranteed Contracts

Arbitration-Eligible Players

Note on arb-eligible players: this year’s arbitration projections are more volatile than ever, given the unprecedented revenue losses felt by clubs and the shortened 2020 schedule. MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz, who developed our arbitration projection model, used three different methods to calculate different projection numbers. You can see the full projections and an explanation of each if you click here, but for the purposes of our Outlook series, we’ll be using Matt’s 37-percent method — extrapolating what degree of raise a player’s 2020 rate of play would have earned him in a full 162-game slate and then awarding him 37 percent of that raise.

Free Agents

Led by the foremost position player tandem in baseball — center fielder Mike Trout and third baseman Anthony Rendon — the Angels fielded an above-average offense in 2020, ranking ninth in runs and 11th in wRC+. The problem is that the Angels couldn’t keep runs off the board, which has been the case far too often during their years-long skid. Their pitching staff tied for the fifth-worst ERA in baseball, and while it did fare better with the game’s 17th-ranked FIP, that’s probably not of much comfort to the Angels or their long-suffering fans.

As this offseason gets underway, the Angels are once again going to have search for starting help. That said, their rotation does appear to have at least a few quality pieces in place. Former Oriole Dylan Bundy broke out in 2020, his first season as an Angel; Andrew Heaney turned in a solid and healthy season; Griffin Canning performed well in his second year; and Jaime Barria rebounded over a small sample of starts. However, the Angels didn’t get much else from their rotation, in part because Shohei Ohtani was barely a factor for the second straight season. Opposing offenses clobbered Ohtani over two appearances, and he didn’t pitch after Aug. 2 because of a flexor strain in his right arm.

Ohtani has thrown just 53 1/3 innings since he debuted in 2018 and a grand total of 1 2/3 frames dating back to 2019. It’s going to be hard to count on him going forward, though the Angels figure to at least give the gifted Ohtani another opportunity in 2021. That could even come as part of a six-man rotation, which he’s accustomed to from his days in Japan.

If the Angels do experiment with a six-man rotation, it could up their chances of signing the offseason’s No. 1 free agent, Trevor Bauer. Coming off a potential NL Cy Young-winning season with the Reds, Bauer has expressed interest in pitching every fourth day. The Southern California native may be open to doing so for the Angels, but that’s assuming they’re going to pursue him and add yet another big contract to their books. It’s also unclear whether Bauer would even want to pitch for the struggling Angels, considering the 29-year-old has made it clear he’d like to play for a winner on an annual basis. It’s also worth noting that Bauer has had differences in the past with Angels pitching coach Mickey Callaway, who held the same position when the two were in Cleveland.

As Ben Reiter wrote for Sports Illustrated in 2019: “A few years ago, Bauer says, Mickey Callaway—then the Tribe’s pitching coach, now the Mets’ manager—berated him during batting practice for nearly an hour for refusing to throw more fastballs. Callaway had a point: Bauer’s career ERA was around 4.50. Bauer had a point too. “My process has been the same the entire time,” he says. “I’m going to try to find every single way to do better, and I’ve probably researched it more than you have. Don’t tell me what I do and don’t know without some good f—ing data behind it.”

That doesn’t necessarily rule the Angels out for Bauer, though it’s at least worth keeping in mind. In the event the Angels don’t get Bauer, there will be at least a few other capable starters available (albeit less exciting ones). Beginning with a trade possibility, the Rangers’ Lance Lynn would give the Angels some much-needed stability near the top of their rotation. Of course, reeling in Lynn would require the Angels to pry him from a division rival.

Free agency features plenty of other well-known names after Bauer, but most come with their share of questions. Marcus Stroman, Kevin Gausman, Masahiro Tanaka and Jake Odorizzi could each pull in fairly lucrative deals for multiple years, while there are a slew of one- or two-year possibilities including Jose Quintana, James Paxton, Taijuan Walker, ex-Angel Garrett Richards, Corey Kluber, Mike Minor, Adam Wainwright, Cole Hamels and Jon Lester. Some members of that group happen to have past connections to the Angels’ coaching staff. Quintana, Hamels and Lester were in the Cubs’ rotation when Joe Maddon was their manager, while Kluber was a two-time Cy Young winner in Cleveland when Callaway was the Indians’ pitching coach.

Just as the Angels figure to address their rotation this winter, their bullpen is also likely to be a focus. Their top reliever, Mike Mayers, is returning, but help is needed otherwise — especially from the left side. With that in mind, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them pursue free agents such as Brad Hand and Jake McGee (who played under Maddon in Tampa Bay). The right side has an even larger selection, including Liam Hendriks, Trevor May, Trevor Rosenthal, Alex Colome (he was also with Maddon as a Ray), Mark Melancon and Shane Greene. The very fact that Mayers, a Nov. 2019 waiver claim who came to the organization with a career 7.03 ERA, emerged as their most reliable reliever in 2020 speaks to the need to supplement this group.

Turning to the offensive side, most of the Angels’ regulars for 2020 looks to be in place. Trout and Rendon will continue to man their positions, while David Fletcher will have a starting spot somewhere. The Angels are stuck with first baseman Albert Pujols and left fielder Justin Upton because of their contracts, so they’ll continue to get regular playing time (Jared Walsh will rejoin Pujols at first). Ohtani should continue as their option at DH. At catcher, the Angels are unlikely to pursue a new starter to replace Max Stassi, per Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic. Stassi did undergo hip surgery in October, which could call his Opening Day availability into question. If it does, the Angels might at least make a depth move there and pair that player with Anthony Bemboom as they await Stassi’s return.

The Angels at least seem likely to address their middle infield from the outside, as they’re losing starting shortstop Andrelton Simmons to free agency. The club does appear to have several viable outside options, though, considering Fletcher is versatile enough to hold down second base or short. If he plays second, they can peruse the trade market (e.g. Francisco Lindor, Trevor Story) or free agency (e.g. Didi Gregorius, Marcus Semien, Ha-Seong Kim) for a shortstop. If he handles short, the Angels could look to DJ LeMahieu, Kolten Wong, old friend Tommy La Stella or Cesar Hernandez to take over at the keystone. They’ve already expressed interest in Wong — who, as MLBTR’s Mark Polishuk noted, resembles the second base version of Simmons. Gregorius is said to be of interest to them as well.

The Angels may have to make a move in their outfield, where they received little to no production from anyone but Trout in 2020. As mentioned earlier, Upton will get a chance to rebound by virtue of the $51MM he’s owed through 2022 and his full no-trade clause. Right field doesn’t look as certain, however. The Angels do have Jo Adell and Taylor Ward there, but Adell had a brutal debut and Ward didn’t hit a home run in 102 plate appearances. Adell has long rated as one of the game’s elite prospects, but he barely got his feet wet in Triple-A in 2019 and obviously didn’t have the benefit of a minor league season in 2020. He could require some additional development time.

It may at least make sense to bring in a left-handed bat to platoon with all of their right-handed corner outfielders and slightly balance out the lineup. Michael Brantley, Joc Pederson, Brett Gardner, Jurickson Profar and Robbie Grossman lead the way among this winter’s class of lefty-capable hitters who can play the outfield. Admittedly, Brantley seems like a better fit for a club that can offer him some time at DH to help keep him fresh. The Angels did have a trade in place for Pederson last winter, but their deal with the Dodgers fell through for unknown reasons. It’s anyone’s guess whether a new front office regime would pursue him.

Year 1 of the Trout-Rendon era didn’t produce nearly enough team success — through no fault of that duo, of course — but it’s a massive advantage for the next GM to have those two in place. If the Angels are finally going to get back to contention in 2021, that executive will at least have to make meaningful additions to the Halos’ pitching staff and figure out the middle infield.

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