Fuel report
Oil 2020
Oil
Oil markets are going through a period of extraordinary change as the United States is increasingly leading the expansion of global oil supplies, and demand is shifting from developed economies and transportation fuels to Asia and petrochemicals.
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Fundamentally, oil demand depends on the strength of the global economy - in particular the expansion of developing economies such as China and India. At the same time, around the world, increasing consumer demand means more plastic, which in turn means more petrochemicals. Despite efforts to curb plastics use and encourage recycling, demand for plastics and petrochemicals is growing strongly. Another major growth sector is aviation. In recent years, the air travel industry has witnessed a spectacular expansion thanks to rising passenger numbers. Demand will continue to grow strongly, supported by rising incomes in developing countries, more airports being built and growing airline fleets.
Last updated Aug 27, 2020
Key findings
Change in monthly oil demand in selected countries, 2020 relative to 2019
OpenGlobal oil demand fell by a record amount in early 2020
Global oil demand is expected to be a record 9.3 mb/d lower in 2020 than in 2019, mostly because containment measures in 187 countries brought global mobility to a halt. The recovery in the second half of 2020 is projected to be gradual, as economies come out of containment and activity levels rise, but demand is not expected to reach pre-crisis levels before the end of the year.
Oil demand by region and scenario, 2018-2040
OpenThe outlook for oil demand varies dramatically depending on scenario
Under the Stated Policies Scenario, oil use in passenger cars peaks in the late 2020s and during the 2030s demand increases by only 0.1 mb/d on average each year. However there is no definitive peak in oil use overall, as there are continued increases in petrochemicals, trucks and the shipping and aviation sectors. In contrast, in the Sustainable Development Scenario, determined policy interventions lead to a peak in global oil demand within the next few years. Demand falls by more than 50% in advanced economies between 2018 and 2040 and by 10% in developing economies.
Global methane emissions from oil and gas operations in the Sustainable Development Scenario, 2000-2030
OpenMethane emissions from oil and gas remain high despite industry initiatives and government policies
Methane emissions are the second-largest cause of global warming today. Methane emissions come from a range of anthropogenic and natural sources; within the energy sector, from oil, natural gas, coal and bioenergy. The IEA estimates that the oil and gas sector emitted 82 Mt (around 2.5 GtCO2-eq) in 2019. While methane tends to receive less attention than CO2, reducing methane emissions will be critical to avoid the worst effects of climate change. Emissions remain high despite initial industry-led initiatives, government policies and regulations, as implementing abatement options quickly and at scale remains a challenge. Policies will be critical to achieve the 75% emissions reduction by 2030 demonstrated in the SDS, but further innovation and support are needed to better understand emissions levels, make leak detection and repair more consistent, and reduce the overall cost of emissions mitigation programmes.
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Statistics report
Monthly oil statistics
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18 Nov 2020 14:00—15:00
WEO week: The outlook for fuels
26 Oct 2020
India energy industry event
12 Dec 2019
Statistics: Release of Monthly statistics Oil, Natural Gas and Prices
12 Dec 2019
Oil Market Report, December 2019
Latest news
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Created in 1979, the EOR TCP evaluates and disseminates the results of research and development of enhanced oil recovery (EOR). Its primary focus is on improving the economics of EOR, increasing the recovery of oil originally in place, and extending reservoir economic life. The activities of the EOR TCP mainly cover information exchange on independent research activities carried out by the participating countries, the results of which are disseminated through annual Executive Committee meetings, two-day workshops and one-day symposia.
Created in 2013, the GOTCP brings together representatives from governments, industry and academia in a global dialogue to explore the role of oil and gas technology in the energy transition. GOTCP aims to catalyse innovation across oil and gas technologies and to provide collaborative opportunities for enhancing national capabilities within both onshore and offshore activities.
