Arctic Sea Ice

PIOMAS December 2019

Another month has passed, and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center:

November 2019 saw an above average sea ice volume increase according to PIOMAS (3834 vs 3553 km3 for the 2007-2018 period). In fact, only three years - 2007, 2011 and 2018 - saw a larger increase, which means all other years gained on 2019. Of course, it also means that 2019 is no longer on a par with 2012 and 2016. The difference increased to 212 and 961 km3, respectively, and 2019 is now firmly in 3rd place.

Here's how the differences with previous years have evolved from last month:

On Wipneus' version of the PIOMAS graph, you can see the 2012 trend line catching up with 2019, up until the last few days of November:

PIOMAS November 2019

Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center:

During October there was a slowdown in ice growth, which is also reflected in the PIOMAS numbers. 2019 was the third year since 2007 to record a volume increase under 2000 km3. Given that 2016 increased even more slowly, it has overtaken 2019, which is now third lowest on record. But as can be seen on the graph above, the difference with 2012 (99 km3) and 2016 (31 km3) is negligible.

Here's how the differences with previous years have evolved from last month:

If you carefully observe the 2019 trend line on Wipneus' version of the PIOMAS graph, you'll see that it would have been lowest, had it not shot up during the last week of October (more on that below):

PIOMAS October 2019

Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center:

As usual, the minimum was reached during September, and as with other data sets (extent and area), this year's minimum was second lowest on record. PIOMAS bottomed out at 4058 km3 on 14 September, which is 244 km3 lower than 2011 and 385 km3 higher than 2012. In total, 18,432 km3 of sea ice volume was lost, which is the fourth highest amount in the 2007-2019 period. What is interesting to note, is that the three years that lost more volume all started out with a lot more ice than 2019: As can be seen on the PIOMAS Daily Arctic Ice Volume graph, the trend line quickly shot up after the minimum was reached, though 2019 is still second. Overall, September saw an increase of 398 km3, which is the highest increase in the 2007-2019 period (the average is 1 km3). This means that 2012 increased its lead over 2019, and all the other years crept closer.

Here's how the differences with previous years have evolved from last month:

PIOMAS September 2019

Apologies for this late update, but at least it will give me the opportunity to give my opinion/analysis of how this melting season has evolved, now that the minimum is just around the corner.

It also gives me the opportunity to announce that the Arctic Sea Ice Forum recently passed the 100 million pageview mark. This year already has the most pageviews since the ASIF's inception in 2013, and this month - only halfway through - already attracted more pageviews than any other month so far. My gratitude goes out to everyone who contributes with images, animations, analysis, speculation and heaps and heaps of information, all of them needed to help people become conscious of the severity of the situation human civilisation is in.

On to 1 billion pageviews!

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Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center:

Despite a massive amount of melting momentum and an advantageous thickness distribution, volume loss during August 2019 was below average (2301 vs 2559 km3 for the 2007-2018 period). Of course, being record low makes it harder to melt a lot of ice, but since 2007, only two years - 2013 and 2017 - managed to lose less volume than 2019 during August. This means that this year is no longer lowest on record, with 2012 breezing past and going 238 km3 lower. 2016, though profiting from the most extreme August weather conditions in the era of the New Abnormal, is still 521 km3 behind.

Here's how the differences with previous years have evolved from last month:

Wipneus' version of the PIOMAS graph shows that this year is the only one capable of staying somewhat close to 2012:

PIOMAS August 2019

Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center:

2019 had a real opportunity during July to further move away from 2012, but failed to do so. Both years had a volume loss that was well below the 2007-2018 average of 6037 km3, which isn't that surprising given how low they both already are. 2017 had even less of a volume loss, and so 2019 is still lowest and the gap with number 2 has grown a little bit. All other years, except for 2014, managed to close the gap somewhat.

Here's how the differences with previous years have evolved from last month:

Wipneus' version of the PIOMAS graph shows how this year's volume loss slowed down during the second half of July, when it actually should have increased the gap to be able to compete with the big drop that was caused by the GAC during the first week of August 2012:

Comparing

Last week, I opened a special thread over on the Arctic Sea Ice Forum to compare 2012 and 2019, because basically, that's what it comes down to at this point. In the thread, people post data, maps, graphs and satellite images to get an idea of how this year matches up with 2012. Towards the end of the month, I hope to use some of that material to provide a summary, before heading into the final phase of the melting season.

Today, one ASIF commenter called Comradez posted a YouTube video in which he compares 2012 and 2019 satellite images of one part of the Arctic (the intersection between the Beaufort Sea and Central Arctic Basin), which is exactly what I would hope to see when opening the thread. Here it is:

A couple of days ago, I saw this video on the broader implications of ice loss around the world. It's from one of my favourite alternative news channel called The Real News Network (highly recommended):

That's it for now. More to come towards the end of the month. We won't know whether the 2019 melting season will result in a new record low minimum, but we'll probably know whether it's still possible or not.

PIOMAS July 2019

Another month has passed and so here is the updated Arctic sea ice volume graph as calculated by the Pan-Arctic Ice Ocean Modeling and Assimilation System (PIOMAS) at the Polar Science Center:

To quote Céline Dijon*: This is getting serious.

With a total drop of 7066 km3 for June 2019, this was only the second time - after 2012 - that the 7000 km3-mark had been breached. It was just enough to squeeze past 2017 and take the lead in the rankings, while leaving all other years - except for 2012 - in the dust. For instance, the difference with 2008 has grown to 5395 km3, which amounts to a decrease of 30% in just a little over 10 years. The difference with 2016 (member of the 'second lowest minimum' triumvirate, together with 2007 and 2011) went from 208 to 1384 km3. But 2012 is now hot on 2019's tail, only 248 km3 behind, while 2017 is still second with just 108 km3 more volume than 2019 (the difference was 2460 km3 in 2017's favour at the end of January).

Here's how the differences with previous years have evolved from last month:

Wipneus' version of the PIOMAS graph clearly shows how 2019 (red line) and 2012 (purple line) have started to move away from the other trend lines: