2021 projected annual mean (1.16 ± 0.14ºC above 1880-1899 mean) is likely to be cooler than 2020 (~1.26ºC) (with 90% probability), due to the switch from slightly +ve ENSO projections this time last year, to substantial -ve ENSO now (from @climatesociety) https://iri.columbia.edu/~forecast/ensofcst/Data/ensofcst_ALLto1220 …
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Methodology based on my 2016 article on
@FiveThirtyEight:https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/why-we-dont-know-if-it-will-be-sunny-next-month-but-we-know-itll-be-hot-all-year/ …Show this thread -
For reference, last year's prediction (on Dec 22, for 2020) was for a ~40% chance of a record warm year.https://twitter.com/ClimateOfGavin/status/1208748242596438018?s=20 …
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Terrible signs everywhere.
#ClimateCrisis#ClimateEmergency#ClimateAction#climatechangepic.twitter.com/SfCXsGEFjK -
Why does your x axis start at 1979? Satellite data for this goes back much further
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"Anomaly" is not the right word for something that's clearly a pattern. Are you expecting La Niña to continue through 2021?
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Tradition? Real science. Colder down here.
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You should show raw data charts as well as the adjusted data. Let the viewer understand the magnitude of assumptions that goes into these historical temperature datasets.
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