Natural Gas

Today in Energy

Recent Today in Energy analysis of natural gas markets is available on the EIA website.

Market Highlights:

Prices

• Henry Hub spot price: The Henry Hub spot price fell 34 cents from $2.76 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) last Wednesday to $2.42/MMBtu yesterday.
• Henry Hub futures price: The price of the November 2024 NYMEX contract decreased 23 cents, from $2.886/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.660/MMBtu yesterday. The price of the 12-month strip averaging November 2024 through October 2025 futures contracts declined 12 cents to $3.130/MMBtu.
• Select regional spot prices: Natural gas spot price changes were mixed this report week (Wednesday, October 2, to Wednesday, October 9), rising in the Northeast but falling in most other major pricing locations. Price changes ranged from a decrease of $2.64 at the Waha Hub to an increase of 48 cents at Algonquin Citygate.
• In the Northeast, the price at Algonquin Citygate, which serves Boston-area consumers, rose 48 cents from $1.62/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.10/MMBtu yesterday. At Transco Zone 6 NY, the price increased 26 cents from $1.47/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.73/MMBtu yesterday. As temperatures fall in the Northeast, which is typical for this time of year, natural gas consumption in the residential and commercial sector for space heating is beginning to increase. In the Boston Area, temperatures averaged 60°F, close to normal for this time of year but 3°F lower than last week, resulting in 34 heating degree days (HDDs), 18 more HDDs than last week. Natural gas consumption in the residential and commercial sector in the Northeast increased by 22% (0.7 billion cubic feet per day [Bcf/d]), according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. The price at Eastern Gas South, located near Appalachian Basin production activities, increased 17 cents from $1.44/MMBtu last Wednesday to $1.61/MMBtu yesterday. Natural gas production in Appalachia decreased by 1% (0.3 Bcf/d) this week, and natural gas deliveries from Appalachia to nearby regions increased by 6% (1.3 Bcf/d), with about 41% (0.5 Bcf/d) of the increased volume going to the Southern Corridor.
• In the Southeast, at FGT Citygate, which reflects deliveries of natural gas into Florida via the Florida Gas Transmission pipeline, the price decreased $1.18 from $3.70/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.52/MMBtu yesterday. As Hurricane Milton neared Florida’s west coast early this week, evacuations were ordered for over one million people in west coast communities. Natural gas consumption in the electric power sector in the Atlantic Coast, which includes Florida, decreased by 6% (0.5 Bcf/d) this report week, according to S&P Global Commodity Insights. As of 9:30 a.m. eastern time this morning, more than three million customers in Florida were without power, which will reduce natural gas consumption for power generation in that region in the near term.
• In California, price changes were mixed this report week. At PG&E Citygate in Northern California, which is among the highest-priced markets in North America, the price rose 5 cents from $4.25/MMBtu last Wednesday to $4.30/MMBtu yesterday. The price at SoCal Citygate in Southern California decreased 78 cents from $3.86 last Wednesday to $3.08/MMBtu yesterday. Natural gas consumption in the electric power sector in California increased by 38% (0.7 Bcf/d), according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights, as air-conditioning demand increased in Northern California, which was under heat advisories through last weekend. Temperatures in the Sacramento Area averaged 79°F this report week, 11°F more than normal, resulting in 98 cooling degree days, 71 more than normal and 29 more than last week. Temperatures moderated toward the end of the report week.
• At Northwest Sumas on the Canada-Washington border, the main pricing point for natural gas in the Pacific Northwest, the price fell 95 cents from $3.25/MMBtu last Wednesday to $2.30/MMBtu yesterday. Natural gas consumption in the Pacific Northwest was essentially flat this report week compared with last week, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights.
• The price at the Waha Hub in West Texas, which is located near Permian Basin production activities, decreased $2.64 from $1.47/MMBtu last Wednesday to -$1.17/MMBtu yesterday. The Waha Hub traded $3.58 below the Henry Hub price yesterday, compared with last Wednesday when it traded $1.29 below the Henry Hub price. The Waha Hub price has been above zero most trading days since September 12. Various maintenance events on the El Paso Natural Gas pipeline system that transports natural gas westbound from the Permian Basin reduced available takeaway capacity this week.

Daily spot prices by region are available on the EIA website.

• International futures prices: International natural gas futures price changes were mixed this report week. According to Bloomberg Finance, L.P., weekly average front-month futures prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) cargoes in East Asia decreased 6 cents to a weekly average of $13.10/MMBtu. Natural gas futures for delivery at the Title Transfer Facility (TTF) in the Netherlands increased 20 cents to a weekly average of $12.78/MMBtu. In the same week last year (week ending October 11, 2023), the prices were $14.18/MMBtu in East Asia and $13.28/MMBtu at TTF.
• Natural gas plant liquids (NGPL) prices: The natural gas plant liquids composite price at Mont Belvieu, Texas, rose by 86 cents/MMBtu, averaging $7.84/MMBtu for the week ending October 9. Ethane prices rose 7% week over week, while weekly average natural gas prices at the Houston Ship Channel decreased 6%, widening the ethane premium to natural gas by 58%. The ethylene spot price fell 20% week over week, and the ethylene premium to ethane decreased 29%. Propane prices increased 19%, while Brent crude oil prices increased 8% week over week, narrowing the propane discount to crude oil by 10%. Normal butane prices rose 13%, isobutane prices rose 9%, and natural gasoline prices rose 8%.

Supply and Demand

• Supply: According to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights, the average total supply of natural gas rose by 0.2% (0.2 Bcf/d) compared with the previous report week. Dry natural gas production decreased by 0.1% (0.1 Bcf/d) to average 101.5 Bcf/d, and average net imports from Canada increased by 5.3% (0.3 Bcf/d) from last week.
• Demand: Total U.S. consumption of natural gas rose by 1.2% (0.8 Bcf/d) compared with the previous report week, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Natural gas consumption in the residential and commercial sector increased by 16.1% (1.5 Bcf/d) week over week. Natural gas consumed for power generation declined by 2.4% (0.9 Bcf/d), and consumption in the industrial sector increased by 1.2% (0.3 Bcf/d). Natural gas exports to Mexico decreased 4.4% (0.3 Bcf/d). Natural gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export facilities (LNG pipeline receipts) averaged 12.7 Bcf/d, or 0.3 Bcf/d higher than last week.

Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG)

• Pipeline receipts: Average natural gas deliveries to U.S. LNG export terminals increased 0.3 Bcf/d from last week to 12.7 Bcf/d, according to data from S&P Global Commodity Insights. Natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Louisiana increased by 5.4% (0.4 Bcf/d) to 8.0 Bcf/d, while natural gas deliveries to terminals in South Texas decreased 3.5% (0.2 Bcf/d) to 4.3 Bcf/d. Natural gas deliveries to terminals outside the Gulf Coast increased slightly (less than 0.1 Bcf/d) to 0.4 Bcf/d.
• Vessels departing U.S. ports: Twenty-six LNG vessels (nine from Sabine Pass, five each from Corpus Christi and Freeport, four from Cameron, and three from Calcasieu Pass) with a combined LNG-carrying capacity of 96 Bcf departed the United States between October 3 and October 9, according to shipping data provided by Bloomberg Finance, L.P.

Rig Count

• According to Baker Hughes, for the week ending Tuesday, October 1, the natural gas rig count increased by 3 rigs from a week ago to 102 rigs. The Arkoma Woodford, Haynesville, and Marcellus each added one rig. The number of oil-directed rigs decreased by 5 rigs from a week ago to 479 rigs. The DJ-Niobrara added one rig. The Ardmore Woodford dropped one rig, the Permian dropped two rigs, and three rigs were dropped among unidentified producing regions. The total rig count, which includes 4 miscellaneous rigs, now stands at 585 rigs, 34 fewer rigs than a year ago.

Storage

• Net injections into storage totaled 82 Bcf for the week ending October 4, compared with the five-year (2019–2023) average net injections of 96 Bcf and last year's net injections of 85 Bcf during the same week. Working natural gas stocks totaled 3,629 Bcf, which is 176 Bcf (5%) more than the five-year average and 124 Bcf (4%) more than last year at this time.
• According to The Desk survey of natural gas analysts, estimates of the weekly net change to working natural gas stocks ranged from net injections of 58 Bcf to 80 Bcf, with a median estimate of 74 Bcf.
• The average rate of injections into storage is 25% lower than the five-year average so far in the refill season (April through October). If the rate of injections into storage matched the five-year average of 9.6 Bcf/d for the remainder of the refill season, the total inventory would be 3,888 Bcf on October 31, which is 176 Bcf higher than the five-year average of 3,712 Bcf for that time of year.

See also:

• Natural Gas Analysis Reports
• Short-Term Energy Outlook