Former President Donald Trump’s conviction on 34 felony counts appeared to have had no impact in Pennsylvania in his rematch with President Joe Biden, according to a poll released Wednesday.
In the latest Marist Poll, Trump led Mr. Biden, 47% to 45%, well within the survey’s 3.6 percentage point margin of error. The poll of 1,181 registered voters was conducted June 3-6, after a New York jury convicted Trump of all 34 felony charges in his hush money trial.
In the U.S. Senate race that could determine which party controls the chamber in January, three-term Democratic incumbent Bob Casey led his Republican challenger, former hedge fund CEO David McCormick, 52% to 46%.
Trump carried Pennsylvania in 2016, but Mr. Biden returned it to the Democratic column four years ago. Several polls continue to show the two candidates within the margin of error.
“Once a Democratic stronghold, Pennsylvania’s 19 electoral votes are up for grabs,” said Lee Miringoff, director of the Marist Institute for Public Opinion. “Although [Barack] Obama carried Pennsylvania handily in 2008 and 2012, Trump broke the ‘blue wall’ in 2016 against [Hillary] Clinton before Biden ‘held serve’ for the Democrats in 2020. Now, there are no guarantees for either candidate.”
Rejecting Republican claims, 53% of the state’s voters said the investigations into Trump’s actions were fair and designed to find out whether he broke the law, compared with 45% who called them unfair and designed to interfere with his 2024 campaign, In addition, 50% of voters agreed with the verdict, with 24% saying he acted unethically but not illegally and 25% saying he did nothing wrong.
As in previous polls, Trump gets higher marks than Mr. Biden on the economy, with 52% saying he would do a better job and 47% choosing the incumbent. But on abortion, voters preferred Mr. Biden, 54% to 43%. And by 50% to 48%, voters said Mr. Biden would do a better job on preserving democracy. Trump is under indictment in Georgia and federally by special counsel Jack Smith in two venues on charges that he illegally retained classified documents and obstructed efforts to have them returned and that he sought to overturn the 2020 election that he lost to Mr. Biden.
Jonathan D. Salant: jsalant@post-gazette.com or on X @JDSalant
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