2017 Awards Season: Oscar Highlight: Best Leading Actor
February 22, 2018
With our annual Oscar Prediction contest underway, now is the best time to look at the nominees and try and figure out who the favorites are and who should just feel honored to be nominated. This week we look at the four acting categories, continuing with Best Lead Actor. As with every other acting category, there is an overwhelming favorite.
(Note: All previous awards listed are only for acting and not other categories. However, they are for supporting and lead acting. Previous awards and nominations for TV roles are not included, on the other hand.)
Best Lead Actor
Daniel Day-Lewis for Phantom Thread
Daniel Kaluuya in Get Out
Gary Oldman for Darkest Hour
Denzel Washington for Roman J. Israel, Esq.
Conclusion: Gary Oldman has close to a 90% chance of winning this award. I would argue Timothée Chalamet deserves it more, but Oscar voters tend to reward longer careers over individual performances.
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Timothée Chalamet in Call Me by Your Name
Tomatometer Score: 96% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: Golden Globes, BAFTA, Independent-Spirit-Awards, and Two SAGs
Movie's Previous Major Wins: None
Actor's Previous Major Nominations: None
Actor's Previous Major Wins: None
Notes: Oscar voters rarely give awards to actors this young. They usually assume the actor will have a long career ahead of them and that they will get other chances in the future to win an Oscar. I hate that, but given the roles Timothée Chalamet’s had this year, this is a safe bet.
Tomatometer Score: 96% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: Golden Globes and BAFTA
Movie's Previous Major Wins: None
Actor's Previous Major Nominations: Five Oscars, Seven Golden Globes, Six BAFTAs, and Five SAGs
Actor's Previous Major Wins: Three Oscars, Two Golden Globes, and Four BAFTAs, and Three SAGs
Notes: Daniel Day-Lewis announced he was retiring from acting. If he had not already won three Oscars, this would have guaranteed him the Oscar this year. Even if he had just won one Oscar, his retirement could have gotten him a second. However, he already has three Oscars and I don’t think the Oscar voters will feel the need to give him a fourth for retiring. ... That plus I don’t think many Oscar voters believe he’s retiring.
Tomatometer Score: 96% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: Golden Globes, Two BAFTAs, Independent-Spirit-Award, and Two SAGs
Movie's Previous Major Wins: One BAFTA
Actor's Previous Major Nominations: None
Actor's Previous Major Wins: None
Notes: Daniel Kaluuya won the Breakout Star at the BAFTAs and it is very likely he will get another chance at an Oscar later in his career. He won’t win this year, on the other hand.
Tomatometer Score: 86% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: Golden Globes, BAFTA, and SAG
Movie's Previous Major Wins: Golden Globe, BAFTA, and SAG
Actor's Previous Major Nominations: One Oscar, Two BAFTAs, two Independent Spirit Awards, and one SAG
Actor's Previous Major Wins: None
Notes: Darkest Hour is one of the weakest films to earn several Oscar nominations this year, but Gary Oldman’s central performance carries the movie. He’s won every major award he’s been nominated for and one has to assume the Oscars will be next.
Tomatometer Score: 51% Positive
Movie's Previous Major Nominations: Golden Globes and SAG
Movie's Previous Major Wins: None
Actor's Previous Major Nominations: Seven Oscars, Eight Golden Globes, and Six SAGs
Actor's Previous Major Wins: Two Oscars, Two Golden Globes, and One SAG
Notes: This is not a good movie and I think the Oscars would be embarrassed if it won such a prestigious award.
Filed under: Awards Season, Get Out, Darkest Hour, Call Me by Your Name, Phantom Thread, Roman J. Israel, Esq., Gary Oldman, Denzel Washington, Daniel Day-Lewis, Daniel Kaluuya, Timothée Chalamet