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Five Non-Tendered Pitchers To Keep An Eye On This Winter

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Every year, MLB’s non-tender deadline sees clubs allow some of their players who remain under team control to test the open market early, whether it be due to an increasing price tag in arbitration or a need for additional space on the club’s 40-man roster. Earlier this evening, we discussed five hitters from this year’s crop of non-tendered players who could be worth keeping an eye on this winter. While none of those players can realistically be expected to follow in the footsteps of Cody Bellinger and Kyle Schwarber, who both re-established themselves as All-Star caliber players following their respective non-tenders, it wouldn’t be so shocking to see a player from this year’s crop of non-tendered arms emerge as a notable player at some point in the future.

The best player to be non-tendered last winter was right-hander Brandon Woodruff, who served as the co-ace of the Brewers rotation alongside Corbin Burnes for years but wound up missing the entire 2024 season as he rehabbed from shoulder surgery. Kevin Gausman stands out as another notable hurler who’s been non-tendered in recent memory, and the veteran right-hander has gone on to have a fabulous career after breaking out at the age of 29. Even if no player from this crop of arms reaches the heights Gausman has, finding an impactful reliever or even a quality starter in the non-tender pile is hardly unheard of. Just this past year, both Spencer Turnbull and Tim Hill went from non-tendered in November to pitching for playoff contenders in 2024. Could anyone from this year’s group of non-tenders follow in their footsteps? Without further ado, let’s take a look at five pitchers who hit free agency following last week’s non-tender deadline and could be worth keeping an eye on throughout the coming offseason. Players are listed in alphabetical order, with their age for the 2025 season in parentheses.

Kyle Finnegan (33)

Finnegan’s non-tender came as something of a shock, as the right-hander actually made his first career All-Star appearance this year. The righty has been a consistent, stable presence at the back of the Nationals’ bullpen throughout the rebuild, pitching to a 3.56 ERA (116 ERA+) overall with a 4.24 FIP and a 23.5% strikeout rate in his 290 1/3 innings of work. Finnegan’s spent much of his time with the club in the closer role as well, and has racked up 88 career saves in 109 opportunities for a conversion rate of 81%. Finnegan’s overall performance this year was roughly in line with his career norms, as he posted a 3.68 ERA and 4.24 FIP in 63 2/3 innings of work while racking up 38 saves in 43 opportunities this year.

Those frequent save opportunities over the years have increased Finnegan’s price tag in arbitration, and he was due to make $8.6MM in his final trip through the process this winter according to projections from MLBTR contributor Matt Swartz. Aside from the high price tag, one other red flag that may have given the Nationals pause regarding their closer was how he wore down throughout the year. After posting an excellent 2.45 ERA and 3.98 FIP in 40 1/3 innings prior to the All-Star break, Finnegan’s final 24 appearances down the stretch saw him surrender a 5.79 ERA with a 4.71 FIP and a strikeout rate of just 16.4%. Despite that potential sign of trouble, though, Finnegan offers late-inning experience, consistent results, and an upper-90s fastball that should attract plenty of attention this winter.

Hoby Milner (34)

Left-handed relief options are always in demand, and Milner figures to receive attention on the free agent market as a southpaw with previous success in the majors if nothing else, even after the Brewers opted to non-tender him rather than pay his projected salary of $2.7MM for the 2025 season. That’s certainly a defensible decision given Milwaukee’s tight budget and Milner’s poor results this year. In 64 2/3 innings of work for the Brewers this year, Milner surrendered an ugly 4.73 ERA that was 11% worse than league average by measure of ERA+. With a heater that fails to break 90 mph, Milner hardly garners attention for his stuff, as well.

That’s not to say he couldn’t be a valuable contributor to a club’s bullpen, however. Rough as Milner’s 2024 campaign was, the underlying numbers were actually far kinder to the southpaw: He struck out a solid 23.9% of opponents while walking just 5.2%, and virtually every advanced metric was extremely bullish on the lefty’s performance this year as he posted a 3.14 FIP, a 3.08 SIERA, and a 3.15 in both xERA and xFIP. Milner also enjoyed the highest groundball rate of his career (51.9%), and may have been victimized by a shockingly low strand rate of just 58.1%. Looking at the three years Milner spent as a fixture of the Milwaukee bullpen from 2022 to 2024 paints the picture of a steady left-handed reliever who could improve plenty of bullpens around the league: in 193 2/3 innings during that time, he posted a 3.44 ERA with a 3.14 FIP overall. That track record should garner major league offers this winter, even if his lackluster season this past year may limit his earning potential.

Cal Quantrill (30)

Quantrill lands on this list by virtue of being the best bet among all non-tender candidates to make 30 big league starts in 2025. The right-hander found himself moved out of his previous organization in advance of the non-tender deadline for the second consecutive winter last week. After being designated for assignment by the Guardians in the days leading up to the deadline last year, the Rockies swung a trade to add him to their rotation. That experiment went fairly well, as Quantrill pitched to a solid if unspectacular 4.98 ERA (93 ERA+) with a 5.32 FIP. Ugly as those numbers look on paper, given the realities of pitching in Coors Field they’re generally consistent with Quantrill’s history as a roughly league average fifth starter.

The right-hander enjoyed a breakout campaign during the 2020 season that was split between Cleveland and San Diego, where he pitched to a 2.25 ERA in 32 innings while working out of the bullpen. He was used as a swing man in Cleveland the following year, and continued to dominate as he posted a 2.89 ERA (despite a pedestrian 4.07 FIP) in 149 2/3 innings of work in 2021. From 2022 onwards, he settled in as a permanent fixture of the rotation and has been a consistently average back-of-the-rotation arm with a 4.35 ERA (96 ERA+) and 4.68 FIP in 80 starts. Averaging more than 26 starts per year with a roughly league average ERA should be enough to earn Quantrill a look from a rotation-needy team this year, though it’s also possible a team could have interest in seeing if he can post stronger numbers out of the bullpen like he did earlier in his career.

Jordan Romano (32)

Romano was perhaps the non-tendered that garnered the most attention in the aftermath of last week’s non-tender deadline. A two-time All-Star, Romano has been the Blue Jays’ closer throughout the majority of their recent competitive window. From 2020 to 2023, the right-hander spun an incredible 2.29 ERA in 200 2/3 innings of work with a 30.8% strikeout rate and a 3.13 FIP. Among relievers with at least 160 innings of work during that time, Romano ranked third by ERA behind only Devin Williams and Emmanuel Clase. Unfortunately, the wheels came off completely for the righty in 2024 as he was shelled for 10 runs in 13 2/3 innings before undergoing arthroscopic elbow surgery that wound up ending his season.

Terrible as Romano’s 2024 campaign was, it’s hard to imagine him not generating significant interest this winter. The right-hander was projected for a $7.75MM salary in his final trip through arbitration this winter, and it wouldn’t be a shock to see him land a similar deal in free agency if multiple clubs see him as a potential buy-low solution in the ninth inning given his strong numbers and 105 career saves in 113 chances (89% conversation rate). Romano’s market naturally still figures to be hampered at least to some extent by not just his struggles in 2024 but also questions surrounding his health. While he’s expected to be ready for Spring Training and have a normal offseason following his surgery this summer, some level of trepidation from clubs is to be expected after any elbow procedure.

Patrick Sandoval (28)

Sandoval stands as both the youngest player on this list and the one most likely to find success as a mid-rotation starter or better in the big leagues at some point in the future. The left-hander was traded from the Astros to the Angels as the return for catcher Martin Maldonado back in 2018, and the southpaw was in the big leagues the following year. While it took some time for Sandoval to get settled into the majors, he found success in a half season of work out of the rotation in 2021 and managed to build upon that with a breakout season the following year. In 2022, Sandoval pitched to an excellent 2.91 ERA with a 3.09 FIP in 148 2/3 innings of work. He struck out 23.7% of opponents and combined that with an excellent 47.4% grounder rate.

Unfortunately, Sandoval’s performance has slipped since then. 2023 was a step backwards for the lefty, as he posted a solid but relatively pedestrian 4.11 ERA (109 ERA+) with a 4.18 FIP in 144 2/3 innings of work. His strikeout rate dropped to just 19.3% that year, while his walk rate skyrocketed to 11.3%. Things took a turn for the worse this year, as he was shelled to the tune of a 5.08 ERA across 16 starts before undergoing Tommy John surgery back in June. That will leave him out of action until at least the second half of 2025, and that layoff combined with Sandoval’s recent lackluster performance made the Halos’ decision to part ways with him somewhat unsurprising. Even so, with Sandoval not scheduled to hit free agency until after the 2026 season, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see a club snap the lefty up on a two-year deal and be glad he did if he can revert to something closer to his 2022 form once he’s back on the mound.

Five Non-Tendered Hitters To Keep An Eye On This Winter

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Every year, MLB’s non-tender deadline sees clubs allow some of their players who remain under team control to test the open market early, whether it be due to an increasing price tag in arbitration or a need for additional space on the club’s 40-man roster. Previous seasons have seen a number of high-profile players wind up non-tendered, including Brandon Woodruff last winter and Cody Bellinger the year before that. Kyle Schwarber and Kevin Gausman are among a handful of other star players who have found themselves non-tendered for one reason or another during their careers, and all except Woodruff (who is expected to return to the mound next year after missing the 2024 season due to shoulder surgery) have gone on to enjoy big league success following their respective non-tenders.

While players of that caliber reaching free agency by way of a non-tender are extremely rare, plenty of players find themselves cut loose early by their clubs only to make an impact elsewhere down the line, whether as a regular in the lineup or rotation or simply as a solid contributor off the bench or out of the bullpen. With the majority of teams in the game signalling on some level or other that they hope to compete in 2025, clubs who get outbid in free agency or on the trade market this winter will surely be incentivized to try and uncover a diamond in the rough this winter as they hunt for offensive upgrades. Let’s take a look at five hitters who hit free agency following last week’s non-tender deadline and could be worth keeping an eye on throughout the coming offseason. Players are listed in alphabetical order, with their age for the 2025 season in parentheses.

Austin Hays (29)

Hays is perhaps the most surprising non-tender on this list, as he was an All-Star for the Orioles just last year and has been a reliable league-average bat capable of playing all three outfield spots throughout his career. That steady production is what convinced the Phillies to trade Seranthony Dominguez and Cristian Pache to the Orioles in order to acquire him over the summer. While he didn’t live up to those expectations in 22 games with Philadelphia down the stretch, his lackluster .256/.275/.397 slash line during that time comes with a massive caveat: Hays spent the second half of the year battling through a kidney infection that seriously hampered his ability to play, as was discussed at length in a recent article from The Athletic’s Ken Rosenthal.

Given the serious illness that afflicted Hays during his time as a Phillie, it seems prudent to examine his free agency in the context of his career overall. By that metric, the outfielder would be a valuable addition to virtually any outfield mix in the big leagues. Over his three seasons as a full-time player with the Orioles from 2021 to 2023, Hays slashed a solid .261/.313/.439 (108 wRC+) in 420 games for Baltimore. During that time, he generated 6.1 fWAR, a number that placed him ahead of a number of solid regulars during that time such as Lourdes Gurriel Jr. and Orioles teammate Anthony Santander. What’s more, Hays has continued to put up excellent numbers against left-handed pitching even during this year’s illness-plagued season that saw his role reduced to more of a part-time player: in 49 games against lefties this year, he hit an excellent .354/.407/.537, even better than his career line of .277/.331/.469 against southpaws. If Hays can rebound to the form he showed from 2021 to 2023, he could be a solid regular for a team with a vacancy in the corner outfield, especially one that struggles against left-handed pitching.

Ramon Laureano (30)

Early in his career, Laureano appeared to be a key piece of the Athletics’ core alongside Matt Olson, Matt Chapman, Marcus Semien, Sean Manaea, and Frankie Montas. Over his first two seasons in the big leagues, Laureano hit a phenomenal .288/.345/.508 (128 wRC+) in a combined 657 trips to the plate while playing solid defense in right field. After that, however, Laureano’s career was thrown off course by three shortened seasons: the 60-game shortened campaign in 2020 and the 2021 and ’22 campaigns that were truncated for Laureano by an 80-game PED suspension. Across those three seasons, Laureano hit just .225/.310/.400 with a wRC+ of 103 and noticeably less impressive defense in the field. That lackluster production continued throughout the 2023 season, as he posted a 90 wRC+ overall between stints with the A’s and in Cleveland. His second season with the Guardians got off to an atrocious start in 2024, as he hit just .143 in 31 games before the club cut bait.

If that’s where Laureano’s story for the 2024 season ended, he’d be a fairly unremarkable name relegated to hoping for a minor league deal this winter. That’s not the case, however, because he joined the Braves lineup to fill in for Ronald Acuna Jr. after the reigning MVP suffered a torn ACL. He looked like the hitter he was earlier in his career during his time with Atlanta, hitting an excellent .296/.327/.505 (129 wRC+) in a part-time role that saw him collect 226 plate appearances across 67 games. While that performance wasn’t enough to convince the Braves to bring him back in spite of Acuna’s pending return early next year, plenty of teams could benefit from a solidly above average corner outfielder who crushes lefties (.305/.343/.526 in 102 PA this year) and puts up decent enough numbers against righties to be a passable regular.

Brendan Rodgers (28)

The youngest player on this list, Rodgers seemed to be coming into his own as a player during the 2021 and ’22 seasons. As the primary second baseman for the Rockies, Rodgers hit a respectable .274/.326/.434 (95 wRC+) while improving enough on defense to win the Gold Glove award at the position in 2022. Unfortunately, what should have been an opportunity to follow up on that strong performance was cut short when he underwent shoulder surgery in March of 2023, which left him sidelined until the end of July. He received regular playing time with Colorado upon returning, but didn’t look quite as good as he had previously. In 181 games since returning, he’s hit just .265/.314/.402 (85 wRC+). His defense has also fallen from the Gold Glove-caliber showing he flashed in 2022, with him posting relatively average defense by the metrics over the past two seasons.

While the red flags in Rodgers’s profile post-surgery are obvious, his youth, pedigree as a former top-20 prospect in the sport, and the thin infield market this winter seem likely to earn him some real consideration on the market. After all, if getting another year removed from his shoulder injury can help him rediscover the form he flashed in 2022, it’s easy to imagine him posting a strong season as a regular second baseman for a team without a clear answer at the position such as the Mariners, Yankees, or Giants. Unlike the outfielders on this list, Rodgers’s competition on the infield market is similarly flawed, with only a handful of players likely to land multi-year deals.

Josh Rojas (31)

Rojas was a somewhat surprising non-tendered, given his status as one of the Mariners’ better internal infield options headed into 2025. Evidently, the club wasn’t willing to pay a projected $4.3MM salary for his services next year after an up-and-down 2024 campaign that saw him slash a decent .204/.304/.336 (91 wRC+) overall. That slash line doesn’t tell the whole story, however, as Rojas hit just .192/.273/.301 (72 wRC+) after all the All-Star break this year. That’s an untenable slash line for an everyday player, particularly given the fact that Rojas is a rather pedestrian defender at both second and third base.

With that being said, Rojas figures to be benefit from a lackluster infield market just as Rodgers does. Over the past four seasons, Rojas has been a roughly league average hitter (97 wRC+) with the Diamondbacks and Mariners. It’s also worth noting that he stands out as a solid candidate for a platoon role; left-handed hitting infielders are somewhat scarce, and Rojas made the most of his platoon advantage by posting an above-average 104 wRC+ against right-handed pitching this year. With a lefty-mashing platoon partner or in a bench role that helps to limit his exposure to same-handed pitching, it’s easy to imagine Rojas enjoying a solid season in 2025. Another notable factor in Rojas’s free agency should be that he figures to remain arbitration-eligible next winter, meaning his next club could retain him for a second season if the first one goes well.

Mike Tauchman (34)

Tauchman is the oldest player on the list, but he’s noteworthy for being the only player here to post an above-average wRC+ in each of the past two seasons. After a brief sojourn to South Korea to play in the KBO during 2022, Tauchman latched on with the Cubs and excelled in a fourth outfielder role with the club. In 217 games with Chicago over the past two years, he’s slashed .250/.360/.372 with a wRC+ of 110 and an excellent 13.7% walk rate that even earned him a stint as the club’s regular leadoff hitter. Tauchman found himself non-tendered despite that solid production thanks in large part to his shrinking role with the club in the second half last year; the Cubs have Ian Happ, Cody Bellinger, Seiya Suzuki, and Pete Crow-Armstrong all penciled into the lineup for regular playing time, and youngsters like Alexander Canario, Owen Caissie, and Kevin Alcantara on the 40-man roster as depth options.

That made Tauchman expendable to Chicago, but he should be an interesting free agent option for a team in need of a steady, high-OBP veteran presence in their outfield mix. While he’s a pedestrian defender at all three outfield spots, Tauchman’s ability to play a passable center field should further add to his value, and like Rojas he comes with an additional season of team control after 2025 should the club that signs him have interest in his services the following year. Just 11 clubs posted a 110 wRC+ of higher in the outfield in 2024, and 15 clubs got below-average offensive production on the grass overall, meaning Tauchman could be a relatively inexpensive fit for a number of clubs in need of outfield help this winter.

Enmanuel De Jesus Signs With KBO’s KT Wiz

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Left-hander Enmanuel De Jesus has signed with the KT Wiz of the Korea Baseball Organization, per a club announcement. As noted by Jeeho Yoo of Yonhap News, De Jesus is set to make $1MM in 2025, including a $200K signing bonus.

De Jesus is actually quite familiar with the KBO League after signing with the Kiwoom Heroes last December. The southpaw enjoyed a solid season for the Heroes last year as he pitched to a 3.68 ERA in 171 1/3 innings of work across 30 starts. He struck out 24.5% of opponents while walking just 6%, though his 22 home runs allowed held down his overall production. Even so, De Jesus clearly showed enough in his first season overseas to earn himself another contract ahead of his age-28 campaign.

A native of Venezuela, De Jesus signed with the Red Sox as an international amateur and made his pro debut back in 2014. The lefty pitched primarily out of the rotation during his time in the minors with Boston but in 2021 saw his role shifted to a more flexible one where he split time between the rotation and bullpen as he reached the upper levels of the minors. He made one start for the club at Triple-A before electing minor league free agency that autumn and latching on with the Giants on a minor league deal. He didn’t reach the big leagues during his year in San Francisco, as he struggled somewhat with the club’s Sacramento affiliate in 35 appearances (19 starts).

That led him to sign a fresh minor league deal with the Marlins during the 2022-23 offseason. His time at the club’s Triple-A affiliate in Jacksonville was somewhat lackluster, as he pitched to a 4.78 ERA in 84 2/3 frames. That didn’t stop the Marlins from giving De Jesus his first crack at big league action, however. The lefty made two appearances with Miami in September, though both left much to be desired. Overall, he surrendered eight runs on nine hits, four walks, and three hit batters while striking out five across 6 1/3 innings of work. That disastrous start to De Jesus’s big league career led the Marlins to designate him for assignment not long after, and he once again elected to test the open market.

That, of course, led him to the KBO League, where he’s now revitalized his career. As De Jesus is just entering his age-28 season, it remains well within the realm of possibility that the lefty could attempt to make a stateside comeback at some point down the line, as KBO alum like Merrill Kelly and Erick Fedde have done successfully in recent years. In the meantime, however, he’ll look to replicate the success he had with the Heroes last year with KT in 2025.

Quick Hits: Snell, Orioles, Brash, Cubs

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The Orioles had “legitimate interest” in southpaw Blake Snell before he landed with the Dodgers on a five-year deal that became official earlier today, per a report from Roch Kubatko of MASN. Kubatko notes, however, that it’s unclear how advanced talks between Baltimore and Snell’s camp became before he settled on Los Angeles. Previous reporting indicated that the Orioles could get involved in the Snell sweepstakes, but Kubatko’s report is the first confirming Baltimore’s interest.

As the club looks to either reunite with right-hander Corbin Burnes or replace his production at the top of their rotation following his departure for free agency earlier this month, it’s hardly a surprise to hear that the club took a hard look at Snell while he was available. The two-time Cy Young award winner has been even better than Burnes from a run prevention perspective over the past three years, with a 2.82 ERA and 2.98 FIP in 412 innings. Burnes, meanwhile, lags behind in rate stats with a 3.08 ERA and 3.49 FIP, but his 590 innings of work dwarf Snell in terms of volume. That volume figures to be particularly attractive to an Orioles club that has serious health question marks surrounding a number of its starters, including Kyle Bradish as he rehabs from Tommy John surgery that figures to keep him out of action for at least the first half of 2025.

While Burnes seems likely to remain the Orioles’s top choice in free agency this winter, they’ve also been connected to southpaws Max Fried and Garrett Crochet in free agency and via trade respectively. It seems as though they’re also looking at mid-rotation arms as well, however, as they were recently linked to veteran righty Nathan Eovaldi. Eovaldi projects to be much less expensive than Burnes and Fried in free agency this winter, but that affordability comes with a much less impactful track record as the 34-year-old has a solid but unremarkable 3.75 ERA and 3.63 FIP across the past five seasons. The Orioles are quite familiar with Eovaldi, of course, as he spent seven seasons in the AL East with the Yankees, Rays, and Red Sox from 2015 to 2022.

More tidbits from around the baseball world…

  • Mariners fans got an encouraging update on the status of right-hander Matt Brash recently, as Adam Jude of The Seattle Times reported earlier this week that the right-hander is ahead of schedule as he rehabs from his early May Tommy John surgery. Per Jude, the Mariners are “optimistic” that he could return to the club’s bullpen by the end of April this coming season, just under a year after he first went under the knife. Brash’s return would surely be a major boost for Seattle, as he established himself as one of the most exciting young arms in the club’s arsenal during a breakout 2023 campaign. After being moved to the bullpen partway through the 2022 season, Brash’s first full campaign as a reliever saw him lead the majors with 78 appearances while posting an excellent 3.06 ERA with an even better 2.26 FIP. He struck out an eye-popping 34.7% of batters faced that year, and if he can post numbers anything like that in 2025 he’ll be a phenomenal complement to closer Andres Munoz at the back of the Mariners bullpen next year.
  • The Cubs have yet to announce their finalized coaching staff for the 2025 season, but Sahadev Sharma of The Athletic reported earlier this week that at least one more vacancy has been filled. After assistant pitching coach Daniel Moskos departed the organization to become the Marlins’ pitching coach, the club is promoting internally to replace Moskos by hiring Casey Jacobson. Jacobson has been in the Cubs organization since October 2019 and has spent the past two years as the senior coordinator of pitching development for the club in the minor leagues. Now, he’ll get the opportunity to work on a big league coaching staff for the first time in his career with a number of young arms such as Ben Brown, Jordan Wicks, and Porter Hodge expected to play roles for Chicago next year.

Dodgers Sign Blake Snell To Five-Year Deal

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The Dodgers continue to load up, as they announced their five-year contract with left-hander Blake Snell Saturday afternoon. The deal, which is pending a physical, comes with a $182MM guarantee but reportedly includes $65MM in deferrals ($13MM per year) that’ll reduce the net present value to the $160-165MM range. Snell, a client of the Boras Corporation, receives a $52MM signing bonus and limited no-trade protection, while the deal includes a $5MM assignment bonus in the event of a trade. The contract does not contain any opt-out provisions and covers Snell’s age 32-36 seasons.

It’s the offseason’s biggest move to date and represents a much quicker resolution than Snell’s previous trip to the market. The star southpaw was coming off a Cy Young campaign last winter. The long-term deal he sought didn’t materialize, leading to an extended free agent stay. Snell went unsigned into March before joining the Giants on a two-year deal that guaranteed him $62MM and, more importantly, allowed him to opt out after the first season.

Snell had a dismal start to the season. He allowed more than a run per inning over his first six appearances. He landed on the injured list twice in the first three months while battling groin discomfort. As recently as the middle of June, it looked like a near-lock that Snell would bypass the chance to return to free agency.

That all changed as soon as he returned from his second IL stint. By the end of the season, there was no doubt he’d pass on the remaining $30MM on his pact with San Francisco. Snell was the best pitcher in baseball down the stretch. Over his final 14 starts, he turned in a 1.23 earned run average while holding opponents to a .123/.211/.171 batting line that looked like a throwback to the days when pitchers hit.

Snell struck out more than 38% of batters faced over that run. He had five double-digit strikeout performances and fanned at least eight hitters in 10 outings. Snell had the best two-start run of his career right around the trade deadline. He struck out 15 over six scoreless innings against the Rockies on July 27 before no-hitting the Reds with 11 punchouts on August 2.

The overall numbers were still weighed down to some extent by his terrible first two months. He wrapped up the year with a 3.12 ERA and a 34.7% strikeout rate over 104 innings spanning 20 starts. That’s a strong season but didn’t earn him a single Cy Young vote. The overall platform year was less impressive than the 180 innings of 2.25 ERA ball he posted during his ’23 campaign in San Diego. Snell finished the season looking every bit as dominant as he’d been during his Cy Young years, though.

It seems the Dodgers are attributing the first two months to some combination of an abbreviated Spring Training and the injuries. While this year was the most extreme example, Snell has been a slow starter throughout his career. He has a 3.95 ERA and 28.4% strikeout rate in the first half of his nine big league seasons. The ERA plummets to 2.39 while he has raised his strikeout percentage above 32% after the All-Star Break.

The main knock has been his lack of consistent durability. Snell has reached the 180-inning threshold on two occasions — his 2018 Cy Young season with the Rays and his ’23 award-winning campaign. Outside those seasons, Snell has topped out in the 125-130 inning range.

That’s not a concern for the Dodgers, who have shown they’re far more interested in chasing upside than bulk. Los Angeles acquired and extended Tyler Glasnow last offseason even though he’d never topped 120 MLB innings in a season. The Dodgers will give Shohei Ohtani another chance to pitch coming off his second significant elbow surgery. They’re almost certainly going to reunite with Clayton Kershaw. They’ve graduated a number of talented pitchers from the farm system but seen a lot of them go down to injuries.

It’s an approach geared heavily toward the postseason. The Dodgers prioritize pitchers who profile as potential Game 1 starters. They’re very willing to assume injury risk while chasing that ceiling. That left them woefully short on starting pitching in 2023, resulting in a sweep at the hands of the Diamondbacks in the Division Series. The injuries mounted again this fall, but they had just enough in the form of Yoshinobu Yamamoto, Jack Flaherty and Walker Buehler to patch together an October rotation. With a star-studded lineup, that was sufficient to lift their second trophy in five years.

Snell arguably fits that mold as well as any pitcher in baseball. Among pitchers with at least 200 innings over the past two years, only Reynaldo López and Tarik Skubal have a lower ERA than his 2.57 mark. Snell’s 32.7% strikeout rate is second, trailing only Glasnow by a fraction of a percentage point. No one has a higher swinging strike rate.

The Dodgers have four pitchers who could start the first game of a playoff series. Snell, Ohtani, Yamamoto and Glasnow are each capable of providing ace-caliber production on a rate basis. It’s unlikely all four will be healthy come playoff time, but the Dodgers have no shortage of talented options behind them. Kershaw figures to be back in the rotation mix once he re-signs, while Tony Gonsolin, Dustin May and prospect Nick Frasso are returning from major surgeries. Bobby Miller is looking to rebound from a terrible sophomore season after turning in a 3.76 ERA across 22 starts as a rookie. Landon Knack and Justin Wrobleski are capable depth arms.

That’s before considering the possibility of further acquisitions. The Dodgers will surely make a push for NPB ace Roki Sasaki, who’d arguably be the fifth starter if he went to L.A. Even if Sasaki signs elsewhere, the Dodgers could pursue Garrett Crochet on the offseason trade market and/or continue adding starting pitching at the deadline.

Of course, the ability to stockpile this kind of rotation talent is a reflection of the Dodgers’ financial might. Even if other front offices share their general approach to valuing upside over durability, few ownership groups are willing to match L.A.’s spending. The Dodgers had generally shied away from pitching splashes under president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman, but that has changed over the past calendar year. This is their third nine-figure pitching investment since last offseason (fourth including Ohtani). They signed Yamamoto for $325MM and extended Glasnow on a deal that included $110MM in new money.

MLBTR ranked Snell as the #2 starting pitcher in the class and predicted a five-year, $160MM contract. The deal’s actual value lands right around there. The specific NPV won’t be clear until the deferral structure is revealed. The expected $32-33MM luxury tax hit indicates the deal will have a net present value in the $160-165MM range. That’d be the second-biggest luxury tax hit on L.A.’s books, trailing only the approximate $46.1MM CBT number on Ohtani’s heavily deferred $700MM contract.

In any case, the deal is likely to push the Dodgers’ competitive balance tax figure north of $300MM. They’ll almost certainly land in the fourth and final tier of penalization, which begins at $301MM. The Dodgers are subject to the highest tier of escalation penalties for paying the tax in at least three straight seasons. The Snell deal itself will cost the Dodgers something in the range of $25-30MM in taxes by vaulting them from the middle of the second penalization tier to the start of the highest tax bracket. Future spending will be taxed at the maximum 110% clip.

It’s a major commitment but one the Dodgers are well-positioned to make. They’re coming off the revenue bump associated with a World Series win. More importantly, the structure of Ohtani’s contract allows the Dodgers to continue stockpiling talent. While the Ohtani deal was not an end-around the luxury tax, there’s a huge benefit from a raw payroll perspective. Paying the NL MVP a $2MM salary for the next nine seasons is a big reason they’re able to continue taking on huge money in the short term.

Snell slotted alongside Corbin Burnes and ahead of Max Fried as the top starters in this year’s class. In addition to fitting the Dodgers’ general preference for high-ceiling arms, Snell came with the benefit of not costing draft compensation. He’s the only of the top three starters who wasn’t issued a qualifying offer. Snell had received the QO during his first free agent trip, so the Giants could not make the offer this time around. Burnes and Fried each rejected a qualifying offer and would’ve cost the Dodgers their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2025 draft and $1MM from their ’26 bonus pool for international amateurs.

Burnes and Fried become the clear #1-2 options for the other teams seeking top-flight starting pitching. Mark Feinsand of MLB.com reported this evening that the Red Sox, Yankees and Orioles were also in the Snell bidding. They’ve all been tied to top-of-the-market starting pitchers — Boston especially — and should remain active on that front in the weeks to come.

MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand reported the Dodgers and Snell had a five-year deal, shortly after the pitcher revealed on Instagram that he was joining L.A. Jeff Passan and Jorge Castillo of ESPN first reported the $182MM guarantee. Fabian Ardaya of the Athletic reported that the deal contained deferrals that would drop the net present value to the $32-33MM range annually. Jack Harris of the Los Angeles Times was first with the $52MM signing bonus, while Feinsand had the limited no-trade protection. Jon Morosi of the MLB Network reported the absence of an opt-out clause. Jon Heyman of the New York Post first reported the presence of an assignment bonus, which Harris relayed at $5MM. Heyman first reported the exact breakdown of the deferrals.

Image courtesy of USA Today Sports.

Giants Interested In Corbin Burnes

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The Giants have already been linked to some prominent free agents this winter, and it appears as though Corbin Burnes is another name on the club’s list of targets.  MLB.com’s Mark Feinsand writes that the Giants “are believed to have significant interest in Burnes,” and thus San Francisco joins the Blue Jays, Red Sox, Yankees, and Burnes’ former team the Orioles as clubs known to be pursuing the right-hander to some degree.

MLBTR projects Burnes to land a seven-year, $200MM deal as the top pitcher on the free agent market, and signing the hurler at such a price would be a fascinating move for a Giants club that is reportedly looking to reduce payroll.  The Giants’ Opening Day payroll last season was roughly $208.1MM (as per Cot’s Baseball Contracts) and they currently have around $154.8MM on the books for 2025 according to RosterResource’s calculations.  Trading any of Mike Yastrzemski, Camilo Doval, LaMonte Wade Jr., Taylor Rogers or Tyler Rogers would free up some more money, but as it stands right now, there’s room for San Francisco to ink Burnes for something in the ballpark of a $28.5MM average annual value and still have space for more additions before reaching the 2024 payroll number.

The Giants also haven’t necessarily been acting like a team that is planning on limited spending.  San Francisco has shown interest in two of the offseason’s bigger-name free agents in Willy Adames and now Burnes, plus the Giants had at least a check-in on Juan Soto’s market.  Ha-Seong Kim and Tomoyuki Sugano are two other notables on the team’s radar, among less-pricey options.  And, of course, the Giants already made a big spending splurge before free agency even opened by keeping Matt Chapman off the market with a six-year, $151MM extension.

Buster Posey was reportedly heavily involved in the Chapman negotiations even before becoming the team’s new president of baseball operations, and those efforts to retain a prominent star seemingly indicated that Posey’s front office was prepared to take a more aggressive stance in trying to land top-shelf talent.  Signing a Burnes or an Adames would finally put to rest the narrative that the organization is unable to attract star free agents, though it remains to be seen if these forays into the top of the 2024-25 free agent market are anything more than due diligence, if Giants ownership does want to limit spending.

Burnes has some West Coast ties, as he hails from Bakersfield, California and he played college ball at Saint Mary’s College of California in Moraga (about 40 minutes away from San Francisco).  From a purely on-field perspective, there’s also a natural fit — Burnes would step right into Blake Snell’s shoes as the new ace, teaming with Logan Webb to become one of the game’s better one-two rotation punches.  Kyle Harrison and Robbie Ray would each move a slot down in the rotation order, and San Francisco would gain some flexibility in deciding what to do with the fifth starter’s job.  Any of Landen Roupp, Hayden Birdsong, Mason Black, Keaton Winn, or top prospect Carson Whisenhunt could compete for the job in Spring Training, or Jordan Hicks could be given another shot at a starting role if the Giants don’t want to just keep him in the bullpen.

Since San Francisco exceeded the luxury tax threshold last season, they would pay an additional penalty for signing Burnes or any free agent that rejected a qualifying offer.  The Giants would have to give up $1MM of funds from their international signing bonus pool, and also their second- and fifth-highest selections in the 2025 draft.  The club already gave up two picks (their second- and third-rounders) in the 2024 draft to sign Snell and Chapman last winter, as both players rejected qualifying offers before entering free agency.

NPB’s Seibu Lions Sign Emmanuel Ramirez

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The Seibu Lions of Nippon Professional Baseball announced (X link) that they have signed right-hander Emmanuel Ramirez for the 2025 season.  Ramirez hit the open market earlier this month after he was released by the Blue Jays.

2024 marked Ramirez’s twelfth season in pro ball, and the 30-year-old’s long road to the majors finally reached its destination when he appeared in 15 games out of the Marlins’ bullpen.  Ramirez posted a 6.97 ERA in his first 20 2/3 innings of big league work, but with a much more respectable 3.83 SIERA in that small sample size, as he was hampered by an unusually low 54% strand rate.

The righty did allow three homers during his brief time in the majors, and keeping the ball in the park has been a consistent issue for Ramirez since the 2019 season when he was still a member of the Padres farm system.  Ramirez played in San Diego’s organization from 2013-19, and after the pandemic canceled the 2020 minor league season, he has since bounced around for some minor league work with the Braves, Yankees, Marlins, and Blue Jays.  The 2023 campaign saw Ramirez out of affiliated baseball altogether, as he pitched in the Mexican League.

Over 101 career Triple-A innings, Ramirez has a garish 7.22 ERA due in large part to 28 home runs allowed.  He did improve on his career record with the Marlins’ Triple-A affiliate last season, as Ramirez limited the damage to five home runs in 40 2/3 innings while posting a 3.76 ERA, 30.5% strikeout rate, and 9.6% walk rate.  This was enough for Ramirez to earn his MLB debut, but as part of the Marlins’ ever-churning roster mix, he found himself designated for assignment in September.  Toronto claimed the right-hander on waivers but Ramirez didn’t see any big league action during his brief time with the Jays.

The 30-year-old Ramirez now heads overseas for a new opportunity with the Lions, and potentially a return to starting pitching.  Ramirez has mostly worked as a reliever or swingman throughout his career, but did start 16 of his 17 games in the Mexican League, so he does have some recent rotation experience.

NPB’s Chunichi Dragons Sign Jason Vosler

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The Chunichi Dragons of Nippon Professional Baseball have agreed to a deal with infielder Jason Vosler for the 2025 season, according to multiple reports out of Japan.  Vosler elected minor league free agency at the end of the 2024 Major League campaign, which he spent as a member of the Mariners organization.

The majority of Vosler’s time with Seattle was spent at Triple-A Tacoma, where he hit .303/.371/.573 and 31 homers over 524 plate appearances for the Rainiers.  Despite these impressive numbers, Vosler didn’t receive much playing time at the MLB level, as he only appeared in 10 games with the Mariners (hitting a much more modest .179/.233/.286 in 30 PA) in late July and early August.  Seattle designated Vosler for assignment in September and then outrighted him off the 40-man roster.

Originally a 16th-round pick for the Cubs in the 2014 draft, Vosler broke into the big leagues with San Francisco in 2021, and his MLB resume consists of 107 total games with the Giants, Reds, and Mariners over the last four seasons.  He had a strong .265/.342/.469 slash line in 111 PA with the Giants in 2022, as the platoon-heavy team gave the left-handed hitting Vosler a lot of looks against right-handed pitching.  That burst of productivity was relatively short-lived, however, and Vosler has hit .207/.274/.395 in 288 PA against Major League pitching on the whole.

Vosler played mostly third base in his two seasons with the Giants and was largely a first baseman in his one year in Cincinnati.  He has also made a handful of appearances at both corner outfield positions and both middle infield positions, and the 2024 season saw Vosler primarily work as a first baseman and right fielder in Tacoma.

It remains to be seen where Vosler will line up for the Dragons, but his versatility gives the NPB team some flexibility in deciding how they’ll utilize the 31-year-old.  Since Vosler would’ve had to settle for another minor league contract with a North American team, the move to Japan will land him more guaranteed money and a new chapter in his 11-year pro career.

Dodgers Extend Tommy Edman

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The Dodgers and superutility man Tommy Edman have agreed to a five-year $74MM extension that runs from 2025 to 2029 and contains a club option for the 2030 season, the team has announced. The option for 2030 is worth $13MM and comes with a $3MM buyout. Edman will receive a $17MM signing bonus, and $25MM of the extension’s total value will be deferred and paid out over a span of ten years, starting five years after the deal is complete. Since Edman was already under contract for $9.5MM in 2025, the new deal is effectively a four-year extension worth $64.5MM in new money. Edman is represented by agent Jonathan Weiss.

Los Angeles was reportedly in the midst of “preliminary” discussions regarding an extension with Edman’s camp last week, and those talks have now come to fruition. It took the Dodgers only 53 regular-season games and 16 postseason games to decide that Edman was a player they wanted on the field over the long term, as the 29-year-old has already made a big impact since being acquired at the trade deadline.

The three-team, eight-player trade that brought Edman from the Cardinals and Michael Kopech from the White Sox proved to be critical to the Dodgers’ World Series title. At the time of the deal, Edman hadn’t appeared in a big league game following setbacks related to wrist surgery he underwent during the 2023 offseason. While he ultimately didn’t make his Dodgers debut until August 19, the switch-hitter made an immediate impression with the club as he seamlessly shifted between center field and shortstop down the stretch and into the postseason, all while hitting a respectable .237/.294/.417 (98 wRC+) in the regular season. In the playoffs, Edman went a level higher and hit .328/.354/.508 over 67 postseason plate appearances, and was named MVP of the NLCS.

By keeping Edman in the fold long-term, the Dodgers will retain a flexible player who can play all over the diamond and shift between the infield and outfield with minimal issues based on the needs of the club. That’s an archetype of player the club has coveted in recent years, as evidenced by their commitment to Chris Taylor and frequent deals with Enrique Hernandez. While Hernandez is currently a free agent and Taylor does not figure to be a regular fixture in the club’s lineup for 2025, Edman is joined by Mookie Betts as a player who offers the Dodgers plenty of flexibility in their lineup construction. A six-time Gold Glove winner in right field, Betts has in recent seasons begun to play an increasing amount of second base and even shortstop, and the club seemingly plans to play him on the infield dirt again in 2025.

With Betts, Gavin Lux, and Miguel Rojas poised to handle the middle infield for the Dodgers next year, that could leave Edman to patrol center field for the Dodgers on a regular basis next year. It’s a position he only picked up on a regular basis in 2023, but he’s been undeniably effective since moving there: he posted +1 Outs Above Average at the position in just 188 innings with the Dodgers this year after reaching an excellent +5 mark in 330 innings in center for the Cardinals in 2023. If he can maintain that level of defensive prowess at the position over a full season, Edman’s league average bat should make him a well above average regular overall for the Dodgers in 2025.

It’s already been a busy offseason for the Dodgers, as today’s Edman extension pairs with their blockbuster five-year deal with lefty Blake Snell earlier this week. With room to improve in the outfielder corners, holes to fill in the bullpen, and longtime franchise face Clayton Kershaw as of yet unsigned, there figures to be plenty more on president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman’s to-do list this winter. Having Edman’s plus defensive ability locked into center field for the foreseeable future could make the club even more comfortable pursuing offensive upgrades in the outfield corners. They’ve already been linked to corner bats without much defensive prowess such as Teoscar Hernandez and even Juan Soto, both of whom are rumored targets for L.A. this winter and would surely appreciate being flanked by a center fielder of Edman’s caliber.

ESPN’s Jeff Passan first reported the extension and the contract terms.  Fabian Ardaya of The Athletic (X link) had the specifics on the deferred money.

Photo courtesy of USA Today Sports Images

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