Mitch Keller

Pirates Have Reportedly Been Willing To Listen On Mitch Keller

By Steve Adams | December 12, 2024 at 9:58am CDT

The Pirates already moved one big league pitcher this week, sending righty Luis Ortiz to the Guardians in a trade to acquire new first baseman Spencer Horwitz, but Pittsburgh’s pitching depth could be sufficient enough to set the stage for another deal. Noah Hiles and Andrew Destin of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette report that the Bucs have also been willing to talk about right-hander Mitch Keller, whom they signed to an extension just this past spring. Righty Jared Jones was even someone on whom the Pirates were at least willing to listen, per the report, though it’s not clear whether the trade of Ortiz has reduced their willingness to talk about other controllable, pre-arbitration arms.

Trading either right-hander would be somewhat surprising, albeit to differing degrees. Any player who signs a notable contract in Pittsburgh is going to eventually come up in trade rumblings as the salaries escalate. Still, moving Keller fewer than 12 months after signing him to an extension that promised him just over $71MM in new money from 2025-28, would be unexpected. He’s owed $15MM in 2025, $16.5MM in 2026, $18MM in 2027 and $20MM in 2028 — a total of $69.5MM over the next four seasons.

Keller, 29 in March, has posted similar bottom-line results in each of the past two seasons: a 4.21 ERA in 32 starts during the 2023 campaign and a 4.25 ERA in 31 starts in 2024. He posted strong, nearly identical walk rates between the two seasons (6.7% in ’23, 6.5% in ’24) and had the exact same 1.16 HR/9 mark in each year.

However, Keller lost four percentage points off his strikeout rate from 2023 (25.5%) to 2024 (21.5%), while his average four-seamer dropped by 0.8 mph and his sinker lost about a half mile per hour. He allowed more balls in the air, more hard contact and more overall contact in 2024 — particularly within the strike zone. Fielding-independent metrics were more bullish on his 2023 work (3.80 FIP, 3.83 SIERA) than on his 2024 efforts (4.08 from both FIP and SIERA).

Regardless, Keller is a quality arm with enough velocity, prospect pedigree, track record and (perhaps most importantly) affordability to draw considerable interest on the market. Even if the Bucs weren’t necessarily interested in trading him at the outset of the offseason, the soaring prices of free-agent pitching have suddenly made Keller look like even more of a bargain. Consider that 37-year-old Alex Cobb secured a $15MM guarantee coming off a season in which he made three starts or that Frankie Montas, 32 in March, commanded a $17MM annual value (with an opt-out) after a 4.84 ERA with a similar strikeout rate and worse command in fewer innings — and Keller’s contract looks quite appealing.

The Pirates don’t necessarily need to shop Keller, but there’s no getting around the reality that a $15MM salary for him this season — and the escalating numbers in subsequent seasons — is a sizable number for Pittsburgh in a way that isn’t true in other markets. Hiles and Destin suggest that any trade from the big league rotation would be made with an eye toward both adding a major league bat to a lackluster lineup. In Keller’s case, it’d also free up money to pursue help at other areas of need. Corner outfield, second base and the bullpen are among the areas that come to mind.

A trade of the 23-year-old Jones would register as something of a stunner. The former second-round pick entered the 2024 season lauded as one of the game’s best prospects and quickly established himself as a viable big league arm while demonstrating star upside. Jones averaged a blazing 97.3 mph on his four-seamer, fanned 26.2% of his opponents against a tidy 7.7% walk rate and pitched 121 2/3 innings of 4.14 ERA ball. His huge 14.1% swinging-strike rate showed clear potential for even more strikeouts.

Jones missed about seven weeks with a lat strain and showed signs of rust in his return late in the year. Prior to landing on the injured list, he’d pitched 91 innings of 3.56 ERA ball with strikeout and walk rates right in line with his season-long rates. He was more prone to homers and walks in his relatively brief September return than he’d been prior to the injury, suggesting his command was lacking — not a huge surprise for a young pitcher simultaneously returning from an injury and establishing a new career-high number of innings (when combining his big league total with his 11 rehab frames).

Moving Jones would require a seismic return. He’s a 23-year-old with five seasons of club control, elite velocity, plus bat-missing abilities, strong command and some big league success already under his belt. One would imagine the Pirates would only even entertain the notion if presented with a hitter of similar upside and club control. Even then, given the rarity of starters with this upside, the Bucs might seek additional prospects on top of any young hitter(s) they’d target. If Jones were truly available, he would likely be the most coveted arm on the entire starting pitching market — and rightly so.

General manager Ben Cherington told Hiles and Destin Wednesday (after the Ortiz trade) that he could “in theory” move another arm from his rotation but cautioned against dipping to far into his cache of arms. The Pirates have Paul Skenes, Keller, Jones, Bailey Falter and Johan Oviedo as current starters with some big league success under their belts, plus an enviable line of well-regarded prospects behind them. Mike Burrows and Braxton Ashcraft are both on the 40-man roster, while prospects Thomas Harrington and Bubba Chandler are close to the majors. Chandler, in particular, is regarded as one of the best pitching prospects in the game (as Jones and Skenes were an offseason ago). He ranked 15th, 19th and 21st on the most recent top-100 prospect rankings from MLB.com, FanGraphs and Baseball America, respectively.

Readers (Pirates fans, in particular) will want to check out the entire piece from Destin and Hiles, as the portion on starting pitching is just one of several Winter Meetings topics the report explores. The Post-Gazette duo also touches on Jack Suwinski’s offseason efforts to put an ugly 2024 season behind him, injured righty Hunter Stratton’s rehab, and some potential news on the coaching front.

Pirates Notes: Rotation, Contreras

By Steve Adams | May 14, 2024 at 3:06pm CDT

Paul Skenes’ promotion to the Pirates’ rotation brought came with plenty of fanfare, but beyond the simple arrival of perhaps the sport’s top pitching prospect, there are also broader implications for his addition to the roster. General manager Ben Cherington and manager Derek Shelton said this week that the Bucs will move to a six-man rotation now that Skenes is in the big leagues (link via Kevin Gorman of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review). With three young arms — Skenes, Jared Jones, Quinn Priester — helping to comprise the team’s starting staff, the goal of the six-man group will be to manage that trio’s workload and afford some extra rest.

“Big picture, we’re tracking volume and work volume for every pitcher on the team, no matter who they are,” Cherington told the Pirates beat over the weekend. He went on to add that while he understands Skenes’ workload management will get more attention because of his status as a recent No. 1 overall pick and top-10 prospect in the sport, the Pirates “look at it for every pitcher and it’s a part of the decision-making in terms of again, trying to win a game and also what happens after the game and getting them ready for the next start.”

Skenes joins a staff also including Jones, Priester, Mitch Keller, Martin Perez and Bailey Falter. Veteran lefty Marco Gonzales, currently out with a forearm strain, could factor in once healthy as well — though there’s no current timetable for his return. He’s still in the midst of a weekslong shutdown, though surgery was not a consideration as of late April.

Just how long the Buccos will stick to a six-person staff isn’t presently known. Health will be a prominent factor, as an injury anywhere in the current sextet could simply prompt a move to a more traditional five-man arrangement. The schedule also plays a role. Shelton pointed to a pair of days off in four-day span late this month that could throw a wrench into the six-man plan, noting that the team will “re-evaluate” at that point.

That certainly doesn’t sound like the six-man pivot will be permanent, but it’s of some note that the Pirates are comfortable and perhaps even prefer to use such an alignment when navigating lengthy stretches with little to no time off. Pirates fans will want to check out Gorman’s piece for more extensive quotes from both Cherington and Shelton, as well as some of the pitchers who are in the group. Perez, for instance, explained his rationale for preferring a more conventional five-man setup, while Falter noted that he “loves” the extra day of rest and provided his own explanation.

The other domino effect of Skenes’ big league arrival was the likely departure of a pitcher who once represented the same type of “future building-block” hope that Skenes does now. Certainly, Roansy Contreras was never regarded as well as Skenes is at the moment, but he was the headliner of the trade that sent righty Jameson Taillon to the Yankees.

Contreras was considered one of the game’s 100 best prospects at the time and held his own quite nicely through his first season-plus. In 2021-22, he gave the Bucs 98 innings of 3.67 ERA ball with slightly worse-than-average strikeout and walk rates — all before celebrating his 23rd birthday. The makings of a solid mid-rotation arm looked to be there.

However, Contreras has fallen into a swift decline, losing velocity and watching his strikeout rate drop despite a move to short relief. He’s been tagged for a 6.17 ERA since Opening Day 2023, fanning just under 19% of opponents against a rough 10.6% walk rate. He’s out of minor league options. The Pirates bit the bullet and designated him for assignment to open a 40-man spot for Skenes.

Cherington discussed the difficult decision to do so in an interview with Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Cherington said following the DFA that the Pirates still believe Contreras can be “a good big leaguer.” The Pirates gave Contreras as much time as they felt they could, however, and Cherington noted that the “alternative moves we could have made to open up that spot were not going to be best for the team” in the short-term.

That’s a notable departure from the type of rebuilding mindset that has been prominent throughout much of Cherington’s tenure. He was hired following the dismissal of longtime GM Neal Huntington as the Pirates looked to a new voice to rebuild the organization from the ground up.

The Bucs still aren’t a division powerhouse by any means, but they’re five and a half games out in the Central and have the makings of an interesting rotation with Skenes, Jones, Keller and Priester all having risen through the system. Bats like Bryan Reynolds, Oneil Cruz and Ke’Bryan Hayes offer some optimism. Ownership may not have given the green light to spend much in the past couple offseasons — Reynolds’ extension notwithstanding — but it seems clear the Pirates are focusing on the here-and-now far more than in the past. It’s easy to argue that an earlier call to the big leagues for Skenes would’ve aligned more with that mentality, but on the same token it’s also fair to point out that the Bucs have typically waited until a player would be past Super Two status before calling up their top prospects. That definitely is not the case with Skenes.

Mackey suggests that another club is likely to trade for Contreras or at least claim him off waivers. I’m inclined to agree. A change of scenery wouldn’t surprise many and seems the likeliest outcome. That, however, also leaves the Bucs with little to show for their trade of Taillon. Mackey runs through several trades that have panned out that way, pointing out that while trades of Joe Musgrove and Jose Quintana have worked out reasonably well (I’d add Adam Frazier, who netted Jack Suwinski), Pittsburgh has come up empty on several notable swaps (Taillon, Starling Marte, Clay Holmes, Josh Bell).

For a front office with perennial payroll restrictions from ownership, converting on trades of big leaguers is exponentially more important. The Pirates surely hope that they won’t be in a position to be trading players away this summer, but if they are, they’ll need to improve over their recent track record.

Pirates Extend Mitch Keller

By Steve Adams | February 22, 2024 at 10:59pm CDT

The Pirates announced that they have signed right-hander Mitch Keller to five-year contract extension. The deal was previously-reported by Jeff Passan and Kiley McDaniel of ESPN. It’s a $77MM guarantee for the 27-year-old righty, per Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. Kevin Gorman of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review reports that the new contract includes the 2024 campaign and runs through 2028. The Tidal Sports Group client had previously been slated to reach free agency following the 2025 campaign.

Keller had already agreed to a one-year, $5.4425MM deal for the upcoming season, avoiding an arbitration hearing in the process. As such, he’ll be guaranteed four years and $71.5575MM in new money. The Associated Press reports the financial breakdown. While Keller’s salary for 2024 is unchanged, he also collects a $2.0575MM signing bonus. He’ll make $15MM in 2025, $16.5MM in ’26, $18MM in ’27 and $20MM in 2028.

That aligns closely with the four-year, $73.5MM extension between the Twins and Pablo Lopez a year ago. Lopez, like Keller now, had between four and five years of big league service at the time of the agreement. A look at MLBTR’s Contract Tracker shows several other comps of note, including Kyle Freeland’s five-year, $64.5MM deal with the Rockies.

A 2014 second-round pick and longtime top prospect, Keller has taken major steps forward over the past two seasons, pitching to a combined 4.08 ERA in 353 1/3 innings. That solid but unspectacular ERA masks some more promising underlying trends. Keller’s 2022 season took off when he added a sinker to his arsenal in mid-May, helping to take some pressure off what had been a rather hittable four-seam fastball. He was dominant for the first two-thirds of the 2023 season before stumbling with a handful of meltdown starts over the final couple months as he pitched to a new career-high workload (194 1/3 frames).

That ugly start in 2022 and similarly rocky finish in 2023 bookend a stretch of 41 starts that underscore the upside the Pirates are chasing with this signing. At his best from ’22-’23, Keller rattled off a stretch of 240 1/3 innings of 3.25 ERA ball, fanning 23.5% of his opponents against a sharp 7.9% walk rate and strong 48.4% ground-ball rate. And even with the tough finish to his 2023 campaign, Keller ended the year with career-best marks in strikeout rate (25.5%), walk rate (6.7%), average exit velocity (87.7 mph) and hard-hit rate (35.6%). There are plenty of arrows pointing up with regard to the 6’2″, 220-pound righty, and the Bucs surely view him as someone capable of that low-3.00s ERA who can team with 2023 No. 1 overall pick Paul Skenes to anchor the rotation moving forward.

Skenes figures to debut this summer, and the Keller extension gives the organization a chance at a dynamic one-two punch atop the staff for the foreseeable future. For the 2024 season, the Bucs’ rotation will also include veterans Martin Perez and Marco Gonzales, though neither lefty is guaranteed anything beyond the current campaign. (Gonzales has a $15MM club option with no buyout.)

The Pirates’ ability to either develop or acquire sufficient rotation help beyond the ’24 season will be critical to their chances of reversing a nearly decade-long run of losing baseball at PNC Park. Prospects like Quinn Priester, Kyle Nicolas, Jackson Wolf, Jared Jones, Anthony Solometo and Bubba Chandler give the Pirates a solid stock of promising young arms alongside Skenes. Each of Skenes, Jones and Chandler has garnered some top-100 fanfare this season (as Priester has in the past).

Of course, the Pirates’ history of developing starting pitching has been suspect, at best. Much of the struggles came under the now-former front office regime, but we’ve seen touted talents like Gerrit Cole, Tyler Glasnow, Jameson Taillon and Joe Musgrove all struggle to reach their ceilings with the Bucs before being traded. Cole, Glasnow and Musgrove, in particular, broke out with their new clubs. Even Keller took a long road to reach the form that led to today’s five-year agreement. It’ll be imperative for the Pirates that they improve their development of young pitchers and/or find help outside the organization. Notably, they’ve been in constant contact with the Marlins about Miami’s bevy of young pitchers and have explored other trade possibilities as well.

Keller joins outfielder Bryan Reynolds and third baseman Ke’Bryan Hayes as core pieces the Pirates have signed to long-term deals over the past few years. It’s a breath of fresh air for Bucs fans who’d grown accustomed to seeing their best players traded as their arbitration prices escalated. The long-term deals signed by each player don’t necessarily preclude eventual trades — as evidenced by Andrew McCutchen — but it’s nevertheless an encouraging trend for Pittsburgh fans to see a trio of extensions that each top $70MM in guaranteed money, considering their $60MM extension with Jason Kendall back in 2000 stood as the richest in franchise history for upwards of two decades.

Each of Keller, Reynolds and Hayes are now signed through at least the 2028 season — the same year that the team’s control windows over shortstop Oneil Cruz and outfielder Jack Suwinski extend. That quintet, paired with Skenes and catchers Henry Davis and Endy Rodriguez, could form the nucleus of the Pirates’ next contending club. Reynolds’ seven-year, $100MM extension and Hayes’ eight-year, $70MM pact are both generally affordable, even by the Pirates’ modest standards, which should give the Bucs flexibility to supplement that core in other ways.

It’s unlikely the Pirates ever dive into the deep end of the free agent market. But if owner Bob Nutting ever decides he’s finally comfortable spending in even the second tiers of the open market — Francisco Liriano’s three-year, $39MM contract is the largest free agent signing in Pirates history — the Pirates would have the chance to complement their growing foundation with some meaningful talent and break away from their lengthy run near or at the bottom of the NL Central.

NL Notes: Grichuk, D’Backs, Kiermaier, Keller, Lodolo

By Mark Polishuk | February 18, 2024 at 10:40pm CDT

Randal Grichuk underwent surgery last month to remove bone spurs from his ankle, so the newest member of the Diamondbacks roster might not be ready to make his Arizona debut by the very start of the season. “It’s one of those things where there’s a good chance I’ll be ready for Opening Day and if not, it’s a week. In the grand scheme of things, big picture, it’s nothing to worry about,” Grichuk told Nick Piecoro of the Arizona Republic and other reporters. Obviously the D’Backs weren’t concerned enough to back away from their $2MM deal with the veteran outfielder, and Grichuk could possibly be used as a designated hitter at first until he is fully ready for outfield work.

As to what the D’Backs might have left on their shopping list after a busy offseason, GM Mike Hazen told reporters (including Alex Weiner of Arizona Sports) that “I think building out relief depth is probably something that we’re talking about. Pitching in general…I think from a position player standpoint, we’re probably in a spot where it’s less likely to see a clear opportunity for somebody. But we still have competitions underneath the starting roles. So we’ll see where that takes us.”

Pirates Notes: Cherington, Payroll, Cruz, Keller

By Mark Polishuk | January 6, 2024 at 1:35pm CDT

Several Pirates players and executives are in attendance at the team’s PiratesFest fan event in Pittsburgh this weekend, which acts as something of a midway point in the Bucs’ offseason. As such, GM Ben Cherington, team president Travis Williams, and manager Derek Shelton took part in a Q&A with fans today, and the group shared some tidbits on further winter plans with fans and media (including Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette).

Cherington made it clear that the Pirates’ offseason work is far from over, stating “We’re engaged on a number of fronts, and certainly my hope is that there’s going to be more happening between now and Spring Training.” Though Cherington naturally didn’t cite any specific players of interest, recent reports have linked the Pirates to such players as Carlos Santana, Michael A. Taylor, Adam Frazier, and a likely far more expensive target in Yariel Rodriguez.

With Martin Perez and Marco Gonzales already added to the rotation mix, Rodriguez would be the biggest boost yet to a starting staff that still has plenty of question marks, considering that Perez lost his spot in the Rangers rotation last year and Gonzales struggled through 50 innings in a injury-shortened season. Cherington made it clear that the Bucs are still looking for more pitching help, and that the team had offered some multi-year contracts to free agent arms.

This represents a bit more aggressiveness than usual for the Pirates, who haven’t signed any free agents to multi-year deals since 2016 — almost three full years before Cherington even took over the front office to oversee a major rebuild. Pittsburgh’s 76-86 record in 2023 represented the club’s highest win total since 2018, and between some burgeoning younger talent and the unsettled nature of the NL Central, there is some hope within the organization that it can fully turn the corner in 2024.

“Our goal was to play playoff games in October,” Shelton said bluntly. “Whether that’s winning the Central, which is definitely the goal, or being a playoff caliber team, that’s something we’re striving for. And I will be very clear in our first message in Bradenton [at Spring Training] in about a month that we should be thinking about that every day.”

Roster Resource currently projects the Buccos to have a $70.37MM payroll in 2024, slightly less than their approximate $73.28MM Opening Day payroll from last season. Since Cherington is on record as saying that the Pirates will increase their payroll, it remains to be seen exactly how much the team is willing or able to spend for further upgrades. It does appear that the Pirates should exceed their 2023 figure in some way, especially since some clear roster holes needs to be addressed if Pittsburgh is to achieve its goal of being postseason contenders.

With broadcasting revenue such a major topic of conversation this offseason, the Pirates’ recent deal for a co-ownership stake in the SportsNet Pittsburgh network won’t be impacting the team’s ability to spend, Williams reiterated. “We’re not changing our plan, not changing our payroll. We’re committed to our plan, and we’re going to stick to it,” the team president said.

That said, Williams also seemed to stay away from any specifics about spending in general, and noted that “I’d say that payroll, while important, is not the most important factor in terms of how we get to building a championship-caliber team for our fans.” Williams claimed that the Pirates are one of baseball’s top five teams in terms of developmental spending, which Mackey notes is a difficult claim to verify or gauge with any accuracy, though it could be true given Cherington’s overhaul of the minor league pipeline.

“We’re putting all of our revenues back into the ball club,” Williams said. “We’re trying to get better every day and investing in areas where we’re gonna get better every day….We’re doing all the right things to win for Pittsburgh. We also want to make this work within the economics of baseball.”

A full and healthy season from Oneil Cruz would go a long way towards making the Pirates better in 2024, after the star prospect missed almost the entire season due to ankle surgery. Cruz told reporters (including Justin Guerriero of the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review) that he is now fully recovered following a summer setback in his rehab process. “Everything’s like it’s supposed to be….Now that I feel 100% again, just go out there like I do every year and give my 100% out there and be ready from Day 1,” Cruz said.

There had been some consideration given to Cruz participating in the Dominican Winter League in order to help him ramp up his readiness heading into Spring Training, but the Pirates have instead been limiting him to instructional league games in the Dominican Republic. Given how the Bucs already lost Endy Rodriguez to a torn UCL while playing DWL ball last month, it isn’t surprising that the team is being extra cautious with Cruz.

In other Pirates news, the team has yet to start any extension negotiations with Mitch Keller, as the right-hander himself told Mackey. This doesn’t mean that talks won’t eventually happen, and Keller feels a meeting “would probably be around Spring Training again like it was last year.”

Those earlier talks obviously didn’t lead anywhere, nor did some follow-up negotiations that reportedly took place during the season. In the interim, Keller delivered an All-Star season that saw him post a 4.21 ERA over 194 1/3 innings, though he was much more effective in the first half of the season. With this in mind, Keller is planning to make some adjustments to his preparation for next year, noting “maybe you need to change a little bit with recovery or mid-week lifts, bullpens and cut some out here and there, just so I’m feeling good toward the end or middle of the season. Just learning from how to handle a load like that.”

Keller is projected to earn a $6MM salary in 2024, his second year of arbitration eligibility. Since he is slated for free agency after the 2025 season, there is still a considerable amount of time left for the two sides to potentially reach an agreement on a long-term deal. Ke’Bryan Hayes and Bryan Reynolds both finalized extensions with Pittsburgh in each of the last two Aprils, and locking up Keller would represent yet another core piece being added to what the Pirates hope is the nucleus of their next winning team.

NL Central Notes: Shildt, Brewers, Morel, Keller, Cruz

By Mark Polishuk | November 12, 2023 at 10:36pm CDT

Mike Shildt is considered one of the favorites to be the Padres’ next manager, but USA Today’s Bob Nightengale reports that if San Diego doesn’t make the hire, the Brewers would have interest in Shildt for their own managerial vacancy. Shildt and bench coach Ryan Flaherty are thought to be the two top candidates in San Diego, though there is a bit of fluidity to the situation. Shildt, Flaherty, and Angels infield coach Benji Gil were thought to be the final three (Carlos Mendoza was also a finalist before he was hired by the Mets) candidates, but the Padres have since interviewed Phil Nevin and also reportedly have some interest in ex-Cubs skipper David Ross.

MLB Network’s Jon Morosi writes that “Padres are expected to” make their decision on a new manager by the middle of the week, so the Brewers should know soon about Shildt’s availability. The Brew Crew didn’t want to fully explore other candidates until Craig Counsell had made his decision, but after Counsell shocked the baseball world by supplanting Ross as the Cubs’ dugout boss, the Brewers now have a preliminary candidate list that included six names. Joe Espada was on the list but has now been hired by the Astros as their new manager, so Shildt’s inclusion might keep the field at six for now. Milwaukee has plenty of intra-division familiarity with Shildt, as he managed the Cardinals from 2018-21 before joining the Padres in an advisory role.

Some other items from around the NL Central…

Christopher Morel has drawn a lot of buzz as a trade candidate this winter, but The Athletic’s Patrick Mooney and Sahadev Sharma have some doubts that the Cubs would move Morel for a player who is only under control for the 2024 season. Morel is controlled through the 2028 season, so Chicago is likelier to explore trades that would see another longer-term asset come back to Wrigleyville, in the event that Morel is moved at all. The 24-year-old has shown lots of power potential and the athleticism to play multiple positions, though it remains to be seen if Morel is a real defensive plus anywhere on the diamond. The presence of Nico Hoerner at second base perhaps blocks Morel at an ideal position, though Morel is preparing to add first base to his repertoire and might be an option at the cold corner if the Cubs don’t add a more established first baseman.
The Pirates were known to have had some talks with Mitch Keller about a contract extension last May, and while no deal was hammered out, Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette writes that “talks gained traction during the middle of last season, though the up-and-down nature of performance mixed with business led both sides to press pause until the fall or winter.” Keller had an overall solid 2023 season, but ran into a midseason slump with a 6.28 ERA over five starts in July. The Bucs also received some trade interest in Keller leading up to the deadline, and while it didn’t seem like a deal was ever likely to happen, it makes sense that the Pirates didn’t want to lock themselves into an extension with Keller just in case another club came along with a blow-away offer. Speaking with Mackey and other reporters at the GM Meetings, Bucs general manager Ben Cherington called Keller “one of the guys who checks a lot of boxes” and “a guy we would love to see in a Pirates uniform for a long time,” but unsurprisingly didn’t give any information on the status of any ongoing extension negotiations.
Cherington did give an update on Oneil Cruz, who might play some winter ball in the Dominican Republic as a way of continuing his recovery from ankle surgery. Cruz played in only nine games last season due to the April surgery, as continued soreness in his left leg prevented him from returning to action in September. The good news is that Cruz has been participating in full baseball activities at the Pirates’ training camp, and he’ll be at least getting in some game action at the Pirates’ academy in the Dominican Republic, even if the winter ball assignment doesn’t happen. Cherington still expects Cruz to be ready to go for Spring Training.

NL Central Notes: Keller, Cubs, Lauer

By Nick Deeds | September 30, 2023 at 10:09pm CDT

The Pirates and right-hander Mitch Keller have previously discussed a contract extension as recently as this spring, and while no deal got done back then, it appears those talks could continue with the offseason on the horizon. As relayed by Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Keller recently spoke openly about his desire to hammer out a long-term deal with the Pirates. “Hopefully this offseason we can get something going with extension talks,” Keller said. “I would love to be part of it and be here for however many years. I think we have a really good window here to really do something special.”

It’s easy to see why the Pirates would have interest in locking up Keller, as the 27-year-old righty has proven to be a steadying presence in the club’s starting rotation over the past two seasons, with a 4.08 ERA and 3.83 FIP across 353 1/3 innings of work with a 23% strikeout rate. A first-time All Star in 2023, Keller posted a 3.31 ERA and 3.32 FIP while striking out 26.7% of batters faced in the first half. While the wheels came off for Keller when he allowed a 5.59 ERA over his final 13 starts of the season, the talent he flashed in the first half is that of a mid-rotation arm or better. That’s a particularly valuable commodity for a Pirates team that sports a core dominated by hitters like Bryan Reynolds, Ke’Bryan Hayes, Oneil Cruz, and Endy Rodriguez.

More from around the NL Central…

Pittsburgh’s loss to the Marlins this evening officially eliminated the Cubs from postseason contention, and plenty of criticism from fans and media has been levied toward club manager David Ross as the club’s playoff odds steadily sunk from a high-water mark of 92% in early September. Despite that outside criticism, president of baseball operations Jed Hoyer recently stood by his manager, telling reporters (including Paul Sullivan of the Chicago Tribune) that “People are going to ask you about your bad decisions 100 times more than they’re going to ask about your good decisions. That is the job… I’m looking at ‘What can you do better and keep learning?’” With Hoyer defending his manager, it seems likely that Ross will return for the 2024 campaign, which is the final guaranteed season of his contract. The Cubs hold a club option on his services for the 2025 season.
Brewers left-hander Eric Lauer returned to the club today more than three months after being optioned to the minors back in June. As noted by Curt Hogg of the Milwaukee Journal Sentinel, Lauer was shut down for much of the summer due to issues in both of his shoulders and his left elbow. Lauer returned to the big leagues for a start against the Cubs this evening, but the lefty allowed eight runs on nine hits and four walks in four innings of work, ballooning his season ERA to 6.56 across ten appearances (nine starts). Between Lauer’s struggles and increasing price in arbitration, Hogg notes that it “seems unlikely” Lauer will return to Milwaukee in 2024. If today marks the end of Lauer’s time with the Brewers, he’ll depart with a career 4.05 ERA (102 ERA+) in 331 innings since being acquired from the Padres alongside Luis Urias in exchange for Trent Grisham and Zach Davies.

Pirates Shut Down Mitch Keller, Roansy Contreras For 2023

By Nick Deeds | September 28, 2023 at 8:19pm CDT

Pirates manager Derek Shelton told reporters, including Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, this afternoon that right-handers Mitch Keller and Roansy Contreras would not pitch again this year, as both players have been shut down for the remainder of the 2023 campaign. With the Pirates well outside the playoff picture and just three games remaining on the club’s schedule after today, the news isn’t a major surprise, though it’s worth noting that Keller was otherwise lined up to take the ball for the club’s final game of the season against the Marlins.

The news officially brings to an end what has been a strong campaign for Keller, who sits atop Pittsburgh’s starting rotation. The former second-round pick struggled badly through the first three seasons of his big league career, with a 6.02 ERA that was 28% worse than league average by measure of ERA+ with a 4.30 FIP in 170 1/3 innings of work (39 starts). Things began to turn around for Keller last season, however, as he posted a solid 3.91 ERA (104 ERA+) with a 3.88 FIP in 159 innings of work. While Keller’s 20.1% strikeout rate and 8.7% walk rate last year didn’t exactly jump off the page, he did generate an impressive 49% groundball rate in 2022.

Despite it being his fifth season as a big leaguer, Keller was still just 27 years old headed into the 2023 and appeared to be in the midst of a breakout campaign for much of the season. While his 2023 began with a four-run, 4 2/3 inning clunker against the Reds, Keller fired off nine consecutive starts with three earned runs or fewers allowed, including a complete-game shutout of the Rockies and a 13-strikeout game against the Orioles where he posted seven scoreless innings.

Keller’s strong start to the season earned him his first career All Star appearance, and he headed into the break with an impressive season in the works: across nineteen starts before the Midsummer Classic, Keller had a 3.31 ERA and nearly matching 3.32 FIP in 117 innings of work with a 26.7% strikeout rate against a walk rate of just 7%. Unfortunately for Keller, his excellence wouldn’t continue into the second half. Over his final 13 starts, Keller mustered just a 5.59 ERA with a 4.52 FIP in 77 1/3 innings of work, with his strikeout rate during that time dipping to 23.8%.

The late-season struggles brought Keller’s final line for the 2023 season in line with his 2022 campaign, albeit with more innings: in 32 starts (194 1/3 innings), Keller posted a 4.21 ERA (105 ERA+) with a 3.80 FIP. Still, if Keller can replicate his strong start to the 2022 campaign next year, Pirates fans have plenty of reason for excitement about the 27-year-old righty’s future. Keller is arbitration-eligible this offseason and won’t be a free agent until the 2025-26 offseason.

Contreras, on the other hand, failed to build on a solid 2022 campaign where he posted a 3.79 ERA and 4.38 FIP in 95 innings of work. The 23-year-old righty struggled badly in 2023, with a brutal 6.59 ERA with a 5.19 FIP in 68 1/3 innings of work with a strikeout rate of just 18.2%. The youngster’s struggles resulted in him being demoted from the rotation in late May and spending a portion of the year at the Triple-A level, where he similarly struggled to a 4.96 ERA across 32 2/3 innings. Given Contreras’s pronounced struggles this season, it seems reasonable to expect the former top-100 prospect to enter camp next year on the outside looking in with regards to the club’s rotation plans, though given his youth and previous success he should still factor into the club’s pitching mix one way or another.

Dodgers Rumors: Verlander, E-Rod, Singer, Keller, Cardinals, Scherzer, Canha, Pham

By Mark Polishuk | July 29, 2023 at 8:12am CDT

The Dodgers have already both added and subtracted from their pitching mix prior to the deadline, acquiring Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly from the White Sox while also shipping out Noah Syndergaard to the Guardians in exchange for Amed Rosario. Between these moves and the re-acqusition of old friend Enrique Hernandez from the Red Sox, Los Angeles has already checked several boxes on their wishlist with over three days to go until the trade deadline, but more transactions seem likely given the Dodgers’ aggression.

Pitching remains the focus, as while Lynn will theoretically fill one hole, Lynn’s inconsistency and the Dodgers’ relative lack of rotation has put a lot of other hurlers on the team’s radar. According to Jack Harris and Jorge Castillo of the Los Angeles Times, the Dodgers’ list of targets include Justin Verlander, Eduardo Rodriguez, Brady Singer, Mitch Keller, Jack Flaherty, and Jordan Montgomery. Beyond Verlander, the Dodgers are also looking at a couple of other Mets players to address their outfield needs, as The Athletic’s Fabian Ardaya reports that Tommy Pham and Mark Canha are of interest.

One Met who apparently isn’t under heavy consideration is Max Scherzer, as Harris/Castillo write that “the likelihood…isn’t as strong” of Scherzer heading to Chavez Ravine at another trade deadline. L.A. memorably landed Scherzer and Trea Turner from the Nationals two years ago, but Scherzer was a rental at the time, just two-plus months away from free agency. Scherzer implied yesterday that he would be exercising his $43.333MM player option for 2024, and with the Mets likely to ask for a strong trade return, the uncertainty over that player option makes Scherzer a pricey add both financially (he is also still owed $16MM for the rest of 2023) and from a prospect cost.

Given how aggressive the Dodgers have been, a Scherzer reunion might not be entirely ruled out until either the team makes another pitching move, or until Scherzer is potentially shipped elsewhere. With Verlander, Pham and Canha also apparently under discussion, the Dodgers’ talks with the Mets could go in several directions between now and Tuesday’s 5pm CT deadline.

Similarly, there are plenty of layers to the negotiations between the Dodgers and Cardinals, as Nolan Arenado is yet another star name Los Angeles has explored. In a move akin to that Scherzer/Turner blockbuster of 2021, the Dodgers could aim to land both a major position player and a rental pitcher (either Montgomery or Flaherty) in the same deal. Harris/Castillo note that L.A. might also pursue either Montgomery or Flaherty on their own, should the more complicated machinations of an Arenado deal fall through.

Rodriguez has drawn attention from several other teams as the deadline approaches, and the Tigers left-hander’s status is also impacted by a contractual option. Rodriguez has the ability to opt out of his contract after the season, leaving three years and $49MM on the table in search of a richer and longer-term deal. An opt-out seems like a distinct possibility the way E-Rod has been pitching, yet an injury or a drop in form (with the Tigers or a new team) could certainly still occur post-deadline, leading to a change in his thinking. If this did happen after a trade, a new club could find itself on the books for $49MM of a suddenly distressed asset, which surely factors into the thinking of the Dodgers and any other team considering the southpaw.

Beyond these veteran rental players, the Dodgers are also slightly expanding their perimeters to look at more controllable pitchers. The Pirates have arbitration control on Keller through the 2025 season, while the Royals have Singer arb-controlled through 2026. Keller seems like the longer shot, as Pittsburgh is perhaps only listening to trade offers out of due diligence, and would command a huge prospect return in any deal. While Los Angeles is one of the teams with the prospect depth to perhaps get the Pirates’ attention, it doesn’t seem likely that the Bucs will move Keller anywhere at the deadline or even in the near future, as Pittsburgh may have an eye on fully turning the corner back into contending in 2024.

“No traction toward a deal has materialized” between the Dodgers and Royals, so Singer is probably also not on the move. The former first-rounder has a breakout season in 2022 but has struggled to a 5.46 ERA over 113 2/3 innings this year, albeit with a somewhat more favorable 4.41 SIERA. It is possible that L.A. was looking to buy low on the righty (who turns 27 next week), just in case Kansas City was considering a wider-range rebuild in the wake of its disastrous 2023 season. The Royals are in a tough spot given the lack of production from almost all of their projected cornerstone young players, yet while it isn’t clear what the next step will be for the franchise, it does seem too soon for K.C. to give up on Singer, one of the few members of that group who has had some level of success in the majors.

Returning to Verlander, he would also bring a bit more control than a rental player, as he owed $43.333MM in 2024 and he can earn a $35MM player option for 2025 if he pitches at least 140 innings in 2024. It’s a steep price tag for a pitcher who turns 41 in February, as even though Verlander has pitched closer to his vintage form in the last few weeks, he missed time earlier this year due to a teres major strain and was then shaky in his first few starts of 2023.

Perhaps more relevant to August 1, Verlander has a full no-trade clause in his contract, and said earlier this week that “I’m focused on being a Met. I want to win here…Obviously it hasn’t gone according to plan just yet, but I didn’t sign a one-year deal.” Since the Mets have already started to trade veterans and look ahead to 2024, it is possible Verlander might change his mind should a contender make an offer, and there has been a connection between Verlander and Los Angeles in the past. The Dodgers pushed to sign Verlander in free agency last winter, with Harris/Castillo writing that L.A. offered the future Hall-of-Famer two years and $80MM.

Pirates Receiving Trade Interest In Hedges, Hill, Holderman

By Anthony Franco | July 28, 2023 at 12:10pm CDT

July 28: Catcher Austin Hedges has also drawn trade interest, Heyman tweets. While the veteran backstop provides nothing on the offensive side of the game — Hedges is a career .189/.246/.323 hitter who’s batting .181/.234/.231 this year — he’s long been regarded as a premier defender at a critical position. A club looking to add a defensive-minded backup could perhaps have interest in Hedges, who’s earning $5MM this season and still has about $1.77MM of that sum still to be paid out.

Moving Hedges makes sense for a Pirates club with two of the sport’s top catching prospects, Henry Davis and Endy Rodriguez, both ready for a legitimate audition in the Majors. Both are already on the big league roster, and Davis has seen some action in right field to get his bat in the lineup. A Hedges trade would clear out more playing time for each youngster. Jason Mackey of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette spoke with Hedges yesterday about the possibility of a trade and his shift toward a mentor role for the younger Davis and Rodriguez. Both young backstops lauded Hedges for his eagerness to take them under his wing as they continue their development.

July 27: The Pirates have received some trade interest in starter Rich Hill and setup man Colin Holderman, tweets Jon Heyman of the New York Post. Hill, in particular, seems a good bet to move within the next few days.

Pittsburgh signed the 43-year-old southpaw to a one-year, $8MM free agent contract last offseason. Hill has continued to offer the kind of back-of-the-rotation production not far off that of his past few seasons. He owns a 4.82 ERA over 21 starts and 114 innings. His 19.1% strikeout rate is a bit below average, while he’s issuing walks at a roughly average 8.7% clip.

It’s not overwhelming production, but teams have valued Hill’s general stability at the back of a staff and veteran clubhouse presence. He’s been on six teams within the past five seasons, generally working at the end of a contending rotation.

For a while, the Bucs seemed as if they’d stick in the postseason picture. They’ve gone cold of late and fallen out of the mix, setting the stage for at least a moderate sell-off. Veteran first baseman Carlos Santana was shipped off to the Brewers this afternoon. Hill is in the same spot as an impending free agent who could have modest appeal to a contender. He’s due around $2.67MM from here forward.

The Pirates can set a loftier ask on Holderman. Acquired from the Mets for Daniel Vogelbach at last summer’s deadline, the right-hander has somewhat quietly developed into a quality reliever for the Bucs. He struggled down the stretch last summer but has solid numbers across the board this year.

Holderman, 27, owns a 3.71 ERA through 34 innings. His 23.3% strikeout rate is fairly typical, while he has above-average control and a quality 51.5% grounder percentage. He’s handling hitters from both sides of the plate, mixes three pitches and has picked up 15 holds in a leverage role for Pittsburgh.

That’s valuable production, and Holderman’s affordability only adds to the appeal. He surpassed one year of MLB service this season. He won’t be eligible for arbitration until after next year and is controllable through the 2028 campaign. Every contender could fit him on the books and into the middle innings, but the Bucs also have zero urgency to deal him for a suboptimal return.

Of course, the Bucs’ top potential trade candidates would be mid-rotation starter Mitch Keller and All-Star closer David Bednar. Heyman reported earlier this week the Pirates were willing to consider offers on those players. Both are under arbitration control for multiple seasons beyond this one (Keller through ’25, Bednar past ’26). The ask on each will be very high as a result, and deals seem significant long shots. Robert Murray of FanSided wrote yesterday that a Keller or Bednar trade was very unlikely, characterizing the openness to offers as standard due diligence for GM Ben Cherington and his staff.

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