Three Needs

Three Needs: Baltimore Orioles

By Jeff Todd | October 8, 2019 at 9:14am CDT

We’re continuing with our “Three Needs” series, in which we take a look at the chief issues to be addressed for clubs that fell out of contention. The Orioles were about as bad as expected last year, but have plenty of possibilities in their second season under GM Mike Elias.

[Baltimore Orioles Depth Chart]

1. Go Wild On Pitching

The Orioles rotation was simply brutal in 2019, allowing more than two home runs per nine innings on average. John Means was quite effective but outperformed his peripherals by a wide margin. Dylan Bundy showed enough to keep hoping he’ll fully realize his talent. Otherwise … mid-season acquisition Asher Wojciechowski led the way with a 4.96 ERA in 16 starts. There were times where the organization had to scramble to find arms.

The Baltimore org should aim for better in 2020. To be fair, the O’s were hoping for much more from Alex Cobb and Nate Karns. And late-spring signee Dan Straily was worse than should have been expected. But there’s an argument to be made that the club should have been more proactive from the outset — and, more importantly, that it ought to be going forward. Given the state of the returning staff, which could include Cobb if he’s able to work back to health, there’s little choice but to add.

Notably, payroll is continuing to dive. There’s only so far to go while Cobb and Chris Davis are still on the books, but the O’s will start with just over $35MM in obligations before sorting out their arbitration situation. It’d obviously be foolish for the team to go splashing cash on veteran free agents, and attracting the most appealing buy-low candidates will be tough given the difficulties of pitching against AL East sluggers in Camden Yards. But there should be opportunities to acquire interesting pitchers via trade or signing, and the Orioles shouldn’t hesitate to commit a bit of cash to acquire some baseline competence and — perhaps — marketable trade assets. And the team should be exceptionally active in grabbing interesting arms from the waiver wire and minor-league free agent market.

2. Market The Middle Infielders

Jonathan Villar and Hanser Alberto both turned in high-quality efforts in 2019. The former checked in at about four wins above replacement thanks to otherworldly baserunning, above-average hitting, and solid-enough glovework at shortstop. He earned nearly $5MM last year and will get a raise, so he isn’t cheap, but Villar is a fascinating utility rental piece for a contender. As for Alberto, he glowed with the glove at second and made so much contact (9.1% strikeout rate, .305 batting average) that you can almost look past his awful 2.9% walk rate. With loads of cheap control (but no options) remaining, Alberto occupies a different but also useful space in the roster landscape.

To be sure, neither of these players is likely to draw a huge return. But it’d be rewarding to get something back for them after already enjoying their strong work in an otherwise largely miserable season. Cashing in now makes sense as well because it would clear the deck to take yet more risks on other middle infielders. The chief asset for a rebuilding team is its roster flexibility. Chasing upside makes sense; at the very least, the team can look for the next Villar or Alberto.

3. Extend Or Trade Trey Mancini

You hate to think about moving a homegrown star at all, but the Orioles need to be careful not to get stuck in the middle on Mancini. He’ll qualify for arbitration for the first time, with three more seasons of control before free agency. On the heels of a strong bounceback campaign (.291/.364/.535, 35 home runs), Mancini is peaking in value.

There have been prior rumblings of a possible extension. That is a strategy worth pursuing. Mancini is already 27, so he’s not exceedingly youthful. But the Baltimore organization will rightly want to keep at least one gate draw on the roster and can still hope that Mancini will be an important part of the club’s next contending outfit.

That said, the price really has to be right to do an extension. The Padres’ experience with Wil Myers provides something of a cautionary tale. If the O’s can’t strike a real bargain, they’re probably better off dangling Mancini to some of the many organizations that would love to install him as a centerpiece for the next three campaigns.

Three Needs: San Diego Padres

By Jeff Todd | October 4, 2019 at 10:05pm CDT

We’re continuing with our “Three Needs” series, in which we take a look at the chief issues to be addressed for clubs that have fallen out of contention. Let’s check in on the Padres, who desperately need to make some tangible gains in the standings after finishing in the cellar for the third time in four years. This offseason will require a delicate balancing act, and a thoughtful reallocation of resources, but there are paths to contention.

[San Diego Padres Depth Chart]

1. Trade Kirby Yates … For A Big League Asset

The Padres aren’t fully in win-now position. Yet they possess a high-end closer who’s entering his final season of arbitration eligibility. They shouldn’t give away Yates unless there’s fair value coming back. And they ought not go searching for far-away, high-ceiling prospects at this stage of their rebuild.

But that doesn’t mean Yates shouldn’t be marketed. It’s worthy considering extension talks as well, a la Brad Hand, but Yates is already 32 years of age and just one season away from the open market. He’s already sure to pick up a big arbitration raise. That could make it hard to get a true bargain.

Instead, the best option may be to dangle Yates — who will be of keen interest to any number of clear contenders — in a search for a quality, MLB-ready position player or starting pitcher. The bottom line is that the the organization has a really nice asset that can be turned into another really nice asset that better suits its needs. That may be tough to pull off. But think a bit more creatively and you’ll start to see avenues. The Friars’ last big swap was a three-team affair, so that’s always a possibility. Perhaps the Pads can take on salary as part of the arrangement, possibly helping big-market teams trying to stay under the luxury tax line. And attaching some other prospect pieces would help boost the value … while also helping with another notable need …

2. End The Prospect Trials

It’s great to have lots of prospects, even when many of them are pressing for the bigs at about the same time. And perhaps it was sensible to rotate many of them through the majors in recent years, when the club wasn’t likely to contend and it was useful both to give them a taste and get a look. But the Padres can’t just keep trying things on; it’s time they pick an outfit and wear it with confidence.

The constant up-and-down, mix-and-match approach has begun moving towards a conclusion. The big summer swap resulted in the departures of Franmil Reyes and Logan Allen, two youthful players that were part of the churn. For better or worse, the Padres have made sizable commitments to some players (Manny Machado, Eric Hosmer, Wil Myers). And emergent superstar Fernando Tatis Jr. is now ensconced at shortstop. The rotation seems to be coming into focus, with Chris Paddack joining Tatis as a potential centerpiece (and extension candidate).

In some ways, the difference here is subtle. It’s not just about how many plate appearances everyone gets — though, notably, a dozen players got more than 200 in 2019 while only two topped 500. That isn’t inherently concerning. It’s just a question of role and purpose. If the Friars want to set up a platoon, then do it. But shuffling through guys for a look and to see who sticks? It’s hard to do that and win. The focus must be on installing pieces that can, when deployed as intended, allow this team to top .500 for the first time since 2010. If they’re lacking, then they must be found, unless another losing campaign is deemed acceptable.

3. Work The Middle Market In Free Agency

Since taking over the San Diego front office in the fall of 2014, GM A.J. Preller has given out three whopping contracts that promised over $500MM in total. Otherwise, he has only twice gone over $4.5MM in a free agent deal: $8MM to Ian Kinsler and $18MM for Garrett Richards.

To an extent, you appreciate the concept of pursuing elite talent and filling in the gaps for cheap. But the broader market does offer some relatively low-risk, sometimes reasonably high-upside opportunities as well. For a team that needs to make rather significant strides just to get into the Wild Card picture — it’s tough to imagine the Dodgers being reeled in — there’s good cause to explore that segment.

Petco Park played very small this year. Perhaps that’ll make it easier to draw solid relief pitchers without having to promise them a worrisome number of years. There’s a good number of interesting, relatively youthful outfielders available, along with some veteran catching. It’d be much easier to take on a few reasonably hefty salaries now had it not been for the questionable decision to sign Hosmer, but the Friars can still plug in a few pieces without hamstringing future payroll too badly — at least, that is, if ownership is willing to approve a move past the $100MM mark in Opening Day payroll for the first time since the club snuck across that line in 2015.

Three Needs: Cincinnati Reds

By Jeff Todd | October 3, 2019 at 8:49am CDT

We’re continuing with our “Three Needs” series, in which we take a look at the chief issues to be addressed for clubs that have fallen out of contention. We’ll now turn to a Reds club that has its eyes fixed on returning to the postseason. Having already pulled off a surprising mid-season strike for veteran righty Trevor Bauer, the Reds will be looking to add a few more key pieces this winter.

[Cincinnati Reds Depth Chart]

1. Take Heed Of Other Teams’ Ramp-Up Difficulties

When fans hear Cincinnati baseball ops chief Dick Williams speak of riding a bigger payroll to the postseason, they surely have flashbacks to the team’s recent 2010-13 inflection point. But they should shudder at the thought of what came before (nine-straight losing campaigns) and after (six straight) that four-season stretch. Williams and co. must work not only to get back to the promised land, but to create a sustainable (or at least more swiftly recoverable) means of doing so.

As they ponder the possibilities, the Reds need to be mindful of the recent experiences of the NL-rival Rockies and Diamondbacks — two clubs that have historically occupied similar tax brackets while dealing with the challenges of offensively charged home parks. While the Colorado organization successfully cracked the postseason code for two-straight seasons, its ramped-up free-agent spending — especially, on multiple veteran relievers — didn’t deliver the hoped-for impact. The Rockies have rather swiftly found themselves in a tight payroll spot. Before that, the Snakes slammed the pedal to the floor a bit too hard — the Shelby Miller trade and Zack Greinke signing — and veered right off course.

We’re not suggesting the Reds shouldn’t be excited to fling open a window of contention. But the club needs to measure its moves carefully, especially since it already parted with touted prospect Taylor Trammell in the Bauer swap. Running up payroll for a single season isn’t necessarily a problem, but the club can ill afford multiple, hefty, unproductive contracts like those the Rockies have accumulated. And it will be even more wary of Arizona-like over-exuberance that could cost a rare chance at an extended period of competitiveness.

Precisely how to navigate things will depend upon the opportunities that arise. But the Reds can look to some other National League clubs for guidance. The Braves (Josh Donaldson, Dallas Keuchel) and Brewers (Yasmani Grandal) both cashed in with expensive, one-year deals. Had they fallen flat, the clubs would simply have shrugged and moved on. If the Reds are to place a longer-term bet, it probably shouldn’t come in a bidding war on a veteran reliever. Last year’s acquisition and extension of Sonny Gray would be hard to replicate, but spreading the cost over a slightly longer term (as the Rangers have with Lance Lynn and Mike Minor) could give the team a shot at landing a high-quality player at an affordable price.

2. Pursue Upside Up The Middle

It just so happens that the Reds are less-than-settled in the middle infield. Jose Iglesias turned in a solid campaign but is a free agent. Jose Peraza can be tasked with a utility role but not trusted as a regular. The club controls the rights to Freddy Galvis, but he should be a reserve on a contender. Nick Senzel is uber-talented and capable of playing center field or second base, so there’s some flexibility to work with for the Reds. There’s at least a sturdy floor behind the dish, but the defensively renowned Tucker Barnhart doesn’t have much of a bat.

This may be the place for the Reds to strike. On the one hand, the upcoming open market isn’t laden with great possibilities. There are quite a few guys that have at times been solid or better middle infielders, but it’s awfully light on players that appear to be present-talent true regulars. And the center field market is barren. But that also reflects the fact that many teams are already settled in these areas. And there are some intriguing options, including the aforementioned Grandal as well as old friend and bounceback candidate Didi Gregorius. It’s far from clear what’ll be available via trade, but there could be some awfully appealing names dangled. The pie-in-the-sky trade candidates are Francisco Lindor and Marcus Semien, who can’t be ruled out entirely given their respective organizations’ long-view strategies. It’s much easier to envision Starling Marte coming available, and he’d be quite an interesting target with two cost-controlled seasons left on his deal. Jackie Bradley Jr. and Ender Inciarte are among the potentially available players that are somewhat interesting but lower-ceiling possibilities.

Yep, the Reds still need to bear in mind the issues raised in item #1 above. An all-in strategy to go for Semien without an extension in place would likely not be wise. But if the Cincinnati club is going to go past its comfort zone a bit, it ought to be on a player who not only has a sturdy anticipated performance floor but also carries some real star potential. There are relatively few options, so they might need to be explored early. If nothing comes available at a reasonable price, the Reds can pivot to the many affordable options while seeing if anything has fallen through the cracks (Yasiel Puig???) in other areas.

3. Don’t Forget Pitching Depth

Yeah, the Reds got really nice output from their rotation this year and picked up Bauer to help lead the charge in 2020. And they have clear need to improve up the middle and/or with a new outfield bat. But this team could easily get in trouble if it doesn’t allocate some resources to protect the pitching staff, especially with Great American Ball Park as the backdrop.

Here’s the thing to bear in mind when you start thinking about whether and how the Reds can build off of 2019: they are unlikely to enjoy such phenomenal pitching health. Aside from Alex Wood, who returned for seven starts after missing much of the season, the club’s starters were more or less always available when scheduled. And the relief corps received voluminous contributions from its best arms: Amir Garrett made 69 appearances; Robert Stephenson and Raisel Iglesias each cracked sixty innings; Michael Lorenzen threw 83 1/3 frames.

While the Reds might not feel a need to chase improvement in the pitching staff, they ought to be relatively aggressive with spending 2020 cash on depth arms. There are a range of possibilities — the acquisition of a volume swingman, risking a bit of payroll space on a few durable veteran relievers, targeting optionable arms on waiver claims — but the overarching approach must build in some contingencies. Not doing so carries significant risk. Early-season pitching additions can be exceptionally pricey and it’s a long time to wait til the trade deadline when you’re trying to break back into the postseason.

Three Needs: Toronto Blue Jays

By Jeff Todd | October 1, 2019 at 7:01am CDT

We’re continuing with our “Three Needs” series, in which we take a look at the chief issues to be addressed for clubs that have fallen out of contention. Next up: the Blue Jays, who ran up 95 losses but also installed some highly promising core pieces at the MLB level.

[Toronto Blue Jays Depth Chart]

1. Open The Wallet For Starters

The Shapiro/Atkins regime has rarely lured significant starters with hefty promises, due in part to the organization’s need to transition away from some big preexisting commitments. (That task is now all but complete, with only eighteen million more Troy Tulowitzki dollars left to pay down.) To this point, J.A. Happ (3/$36MM) and Marco Estrada (2/$26MM) are the biggest pitching deals the current front office has done.

It’s time for more. With Marcus Stroman and Aaron Sanchez finally dealt away, there’s a mile-wide opening in the rotation. The Jays may like their long-term outlook for graduating pitching talent, but at present the returning unit would be anchored by Trent Thornton and Jacob Waguespack. The 2019 Jays relied upon Clayton Richard, Edwin Jackson, Clay Buchholz, and a smattering of other pitchers to get through the season.

Bringing back Matt Shoemaker and/or adding another bounceback candidate is well and good, but if this club is going to make strides it’ll need to spend — perhaps significantly — to bring in multiple quality arms. Avoiding overly lengthy and massive entanglements may still be wise, but the club ought to be willing to take some financial risk with a short-term, high-AAV deal (as in the John Lackey-Cubs signing) and/or mid-length, lower-AAV contract (e.g., the Twins’ deal with Phil Hughes) — depending upon what’s achievable on the market.

2. Deal Ken Giles

This runs somewhat counter to the above point, but the Jays aren’t in a position to point the bus down the road and slam the gas. They still need to meander around and make some additional finds before moving on down the road. Spending on some starters will boost the quality of the team significantly in the near-term and enhance the outlook for the next few seasons. Hanging onto Giles for his final season of arbitration eligibility would be a luxury.

The Jays almost certainly would’ve dealt Giles this summer had it not been for an ill-timed injury episode. He bounced back and finished strong, wrapping up the campaign with a 1.87 ERA and 14.1 K/9 vs. 2.9 BB/9 over 53 innings. That’s high-end relief output. With 23 saves also finding their way onto his ledger, Giles is going to command a pretty big raise on his $6.3MM salary, so he’s not cheap. But think about it from a contenders’ perspective: would you rather take a one-time, ~$10MM shot on a 29-year-old with elite stuff or risk as much or more annually over a multi-year term for one of the best-available free agents? There’s value here for Toronto to cash in and it’ll probably make sense to do so this winter.

3. Take Risks In The Relief Corps

Giles’s own year-to-year volatility is emblematic of a broader phenomenon that is by now well-recognized. It helps boost the reasoning behind dealing him. It also provides cause to believe that the Jays can dig up real talent on the relief corps by taking some shots.

This is hardly a new strategy. The Jays have used it themselves of late, inking veterans David Phelps and Daniel Hudson (since spun off via trade) and acquiring castoffs such as Derek Law, Ryan Dull, and Brock Stewart. So … suggesting this isn’t exactly earth-shattering. But it’s not the right approach for every team and every situation. It does seem to fit perfectly for the Jays. If they move Giles, as suggested above, the team will be left without a single relief pitcher who turned in a clearly productive 2019 season.

There’ll be plenty of internal hurlers who will and should get to compete for jobs in camp, but the Jays can legitimately offer free agents an opportunity to step right into prominent late-inning roles. Splashing some cash on short-term relievers isn’t going to hamstring the club in the long run. Waiver claims and minor-league signings offer other routes to bringing in talent. The Jays can fill out their group for the spring, then make late-camp changes as other clubs make their own tough calls. There’s no real need to focus on stability — something the club will be hoping to establish on the position-player side in 2020 — so much as to grab the most, best talent and let it all play out.

Three Needs: Philadelphia Phillies

By Connor Byrne | September 26, 2019 at 11:26pm CDT

We’re continuing with our “Three Needs” series, in which we take a look at the chief issues to be addressed for clubs that have fallen out of contention. We’ve already focused on the Mariners, Tigers, White Sox, Marlins, Rangers, Pirates, Angels and Royals. Now we’re focusing on the Phillies, whose ultra-aggressive 2018-19 offseason didn’t yield the type of results they wanted this year. The club has now gone eight straight seasons without a playoff berth, and its mediocrity over the past two years may well cost manager Gabe Kapler his job. Regardless of what happens with Kapler, general manager Matt Klentak obviously has quite a bit of work to do with the club’s roster this winter. Let’s take a look at a few areas he could address…

[Philadelphia Phillies Depth Chart]

1. Repair The Rotation

The Phillies’ weak rotation is one of the obvious reasons for the team’s demise this year. Aside from Aaron Nola, the club hasn’t received particularly strong production from any of the starters it has relied on in 2019. Looking ahead, Nola, the disappointing Jake Arrieta and Zach Eflin are either locks or solid bets to occupy rotation spots in 2020, while high-end prospect Spencer Howard could stake a claim to one at some point. Jason Vargas is controllable next year by way of a club option worth $8MM, but the Phillies could instead buy the deadline acquisition out for $2MM after his below-average second-half performance. If that happens, and if the Phillies don’t want to rely on the other shaky in-house options who have failed them this season (Vince Velasquez and Nick Pivetta, to name a couple), they figure to search elsewhere for help.

The Phillies just allocated an enormous amount of money to their position player cast a year ago, including $330MM on outfielder Bryce Harper, and it wouldn’t be a surprise to see owner John Middleton authorize major spending on their rotation during the upcoming offseason. Baseball’s premier pending free agent, Astros right-hander Gerrit Cole, looks like a potential target – one who could cost in the $200MM range or more. Madison Bumgarner, Zack Wheeler, Hyun-Jin Ryu, Dallas Keuchel, Jake Odorizzi, Kyle Gibson and old friend Cole Hamels make for several other soon-to-be free agents who’d help the Phillies’ cause.

2. Upgrade The Bullpen

The Phillies have made multiple ill-fated bullpen signings over the past couple offseasons. They’ve gotten little to nothing from Pat Neshek and Tommy Hunter during their soon-to-expire two-year guarantees, while the same will wind up applying to David Robertson. The team awarded the normally durable and excellent Robertson $23MM over two years last winter, but he only threw a handful of innings this season before succumbing to Tommy John surgery in August. As a result of that procedure, Robertson probably won’t pitch in 2020.

While the Phillies have struck out on relief acquisitions lately, that doesn’t mean they should stop trying. It’s obvious their relief corps is in need of aid heading into the offseason, especially with Juan Nicasio (who’s third among their relievers in innings) and Nick Vincent (who has performed well since signing in August) due to hit free agency. Hector Neris, Jose Alvarez and Ranger Suarez comprise the team’s only relievers who have been effective over a solid sample of innings this year, and all three figure to be back in 2020. Philadelphia will also hope for healthy bounce-back seasons from Seranthony Dominguez, Edubray Ramos, Victor Arano and Adam Morgan, who entered this year looking like building blocks but have since endured disappointing, injury-laden campaigns.

That’s not a group devoid of promise, but it’s also loaded with risk. So, expect the team to continue attempting to bolster its bullpen with more established arms in the offseason, when Will Smith, Aroldis Chapman (if he opts out of his Yankees deal), Will Harris, Chris Martin, Dellin Betances and Drew Pomeranz are among those who could hit the open market.

3. Lock Up J.T. Realmuto

Last offseason’s acquisition of Realmuto has been hugely success for Philly, which saw the 28-year-old continue as the game’s foremost catcher in 2019. While Realmuto is sure to remain a Phillie next year, which will be his final season of arbitration eligibility, his future’s murkier thereafter. Both Realmuto and the Phillies have made it known they’d like to continue their relationship for the foreseeable future, though, making him one of baseball’s prime extension candidates going into the winter. Having traded two quality pitching prospects – including the excellent Sixto Sanchez – as well as major league catcher Jorge Alfaro for short-term control over Realmuto last offseason, the Phillies will be all the more motivated to prevent the star backstop from entering next year without a long-term deal in place.

Three Needs: Kansas City Royals

By Jeff Todd | September 26, 2019 at 7:30am CDT

We’re continuing with our “Three Needs” series, in which we take a look at the chief issues to be addressed for clubs that have fallen out of contention. We’ve already focused on the Mariners, Tigers, White Sox, Marlins, Rangers, Pirates, and Angels. Now we’re going to Kansas City to check in on a Royals team that just cracked 100 losses for the second-consecutive season — an ignominious feat they last accomplished in 2005-2006.

[Kansas City Royals Depth Chart]

1. Auction Off Whit Merrifield

You never want to move a guy like this. But he’s closing in on his 31st birthday and showed a slight but noticeable downtick in the speed department last year, dropping from his 95th percentile highpoint to the 85.6th percentile in sprint speed. That’s still quite good, but the difference showed up in the results: Merrifield was successful on just 19 of 29 stolen base attempts a year after swiping 45 and generated 1.2 runs on the bases after tabbing 7.4 in 2018.

We’re not pulling the fire alarm on Merrifield. Even if he’s merely a really good but sub-elite baserunner, he’s one of the game’s steadiest high-average hitters and continues to show solid pop. And while the metrics waffled a bit on the glovework, Merrifield still carries a track record of quality defensive play along with immense versatility.

Add it all up, and … did we mention the Royals just lost 100 games for the second time in a row? Merrifield is a heck of a useful player on a nice contract. He’d basically fit on any team in baseball and might be a real difference-maker in the right situation. Everything about Merrifield’s profile screams for him to be sent to a contender. Keeping him is a luxury the Royals can’t afford.

2. Pursue Extensions, But Don’t Over-Extend

The core reason the Royals ought to move Merrifield is that a low-revenue team only has so many opportunities to achieve value and swing above its spending weight. Those must be maximized, particularly when the team is in a rebuilding phase. The same reasoning supports the pursuit of offseason extension negotiations — with some players, and to a point.

Why the cautionary references? Because a team in this situation must maintain some serious future-looking spending discipline and focus primarily on improving its asset base rather than on avoiding the eventual departure of guys it likes.

Convincing slugger Jorge Soler to commit into his thirties seems unnecessarily risky, even if he just enjoyed a nice campaign. Righty Brad Keller might be worth inking at the right price after another good season in terms of results, but the landmine detectors (5.24 SIERA, for example) are flashing red. A long-term arrangement with Adalberto Mondesi or even Hunter Dozier could deliver huge upside, and certainly ought to be considered, but the organization should pull hard on its leverage given the ongoing uncertainty with those players.

3. Chase Some Upside In A Free Agent Signing

There are lots of problems on the Royals roster. How could there not be? It doesn’t matter so much where the team decides to add — first base, middle infield, outfield, pitching of all varieties — as that it does so boldly. At least, it’s worth a serious attempt. Having already endured the bulk of the payroll hangover from the team’s recent run of success, there’s some payroll space to play with.

Last year, the organization inked one-year deals with Billy Hamilton, Chris Owings, Jake Diekman, Brad Boxberger, Terrance Gore, and Kyle Zimmer. Those signings more or less flopped completely, though such is life when it comes to this kind of dealmaking. It was generally a defensible group of signings, including some younger players who had shown real talent in the past along with easily flippable veteran relievers.

Continuing to make those kinds of signings is sensible, when the opportunities are there. But why not also ramp up the risk factor just a bit on a multi-year deal? Yasiel Puig, Avisail Garcia, and Corey Dickerson are interesting corner outfield targets; Alex Wood and Michael Wacha might like pitching in Kauffman. If any of those players struggle to find adequate arrangements elsewhere, they could be bailed out with a deal that spans multiple campaigns at a low-ish AAV — thus increasing the future trade value in the event that the anticipated bounceback comes to pass. With most of the market preferring to spend more for less years, there could be opportunities to swim against the tide and acquire somewhat higher-ceiling talent.

Three Needs: Los Angeles Angels

By Connor Byrne | September 25, 2019 at 7:46pm CDT

We’re continuing with our “Three Needs” series, in which we take a look at the chief issues to be addressed for clubs that have fallen out of contention. We’ve already focused on the Mariners, Tigers, White Sox, Marlins, Rangers and Pirates. Now we’ll turn to the Angels. Despite the presence of the transcendent Mike Trout, they’ve posted their fifth straight non-playoff season and their fourth sub-.500 campaign in a row during what has been a year filled with adversity.

[Los Angeles Angels Depth Chart]

1. Pour Significant Resources Into The Rotation

Let’s be fair to the Angels right off the bat: Their rotation (and their franchise as a whole) is still reeling from the passing of left-hander Tyler Skaggs back in July. Not only was Skaggs a beloved teammate to those on the club, but he was one of the Angels’ top pitchers. That’s an irreplaceable combination, though the Angels have no choice but to carry on and try to improve their starting staff heading into 2020.

The good news for the Angels is that two-way phenom Shohei Ohtani should return to the mound next year. He threw just over 50 innings as a rookie in 2018 and then couldn’t pitch at all this season as a result of Tommy John surgery. Ohtani recently underwent another procedure – a left knee operation – but it shouldn’t prevent him from rejoining the Angels’ rotation at the beginning of the season. The flamethrowing Ohtani, Andrew Heaney and Griffin Canning (who enjoyed a respectable rookie season, albeit one that ended in August because of elbow issues) give the Halos’ starting staff at least a few legitimate reasons for hope heading into 2020. It’s harder to find obvious causes for optimism otherwise, though, evidenced in part by the AL-worst ERA and fWAR Angels starters have recorded this year.

In clear need of starters, the Angels figure to aggressively target help during the offseason. General manager Billy Eppler already spoke on the upcoming free-agent starter market back in August, saying, “I’m sure we’ll be sitting with [free agents] and seeing if something can be worked out.” Furthermore, although the Angels haven’t won any recent high-priced bidding wars for starters, Eppler didn’t close the door on bucking that trend.

So … enter Gerrit Cole? Not necessarily, but the Houston Cy Young candidate, Southern California native and pending free agent looks like a plausible target for the Angels. While the 29-year-old Cole could command $200MM–plus on his upcoming contract, the Angels have shown a willingness to make sizable long-term commitments under owner Arte Moreno (deals for Trout, Albert Pujols, Josh Hamilton and Justin Upton spring to mind). And Cole would give the Angels’ injury-laden, underperforming rotation something it desperately needs: a workhorse ace who can provide 200 innings of top-line production.

It doesn’t have to be Cole or bust for the Angels, though he should be the franchise’s No. 1 target going into the offseason. If they can’t get him, though, there will be other worthy starters available in free agency. Stephen Strasburg (if he opts out of his Nationals deal), Madison Bumgarner, Zack Wheeler, Dallas Keuchel (whom the Angels pursued last winter), Jake Odorizzi and Kyle Gibson represent several other possibilities. The Angels could also explore a trade(s), but whether Eppler will want to make notable subtractions from a farm system he has focused on improving over the past few years remains to be seen. Either way, the Angels have to perform far better than they did in free agency a year ago, when they spent a combined $20MM on one-year contracts for starters Matt Harvey and Trevor Cahill. Those pacts proved to be miserable failures for the team.

2. Upgrade Behind The Plate

The Angels went the one-year deal route to try to bolster their rotation last winter, and they did the same behind the plate. But the $3.35MM guarantee for Jonathan Lucroy went down as yet another regrettable move, as he struggled before the club released him in August. Lucroy, Max Stassi (who needs hip surgery), Anthony Bemboom, Kevan Smith and Dustin Garneau (who, like Lucroy, is out of the organization) have combined for negative-0.4 fWAR this year, making the Angels just one of five teams whose backstops have registered a minus number in that category.

It’s time for the Halos do better at the position. To their credit, the Angels at least made an attempt last offseason, courting the likes of Yasmani Grandal and Wilson Ramos before those two went elsewhere. Grandal will be back on the market this winter, but the Brewer should do a lot better than the one-year, $18MM-plus guarantee he raked in during his previous stay in free agency. Would the Angels make such a commitment? It could depend on how much they dole out on starting help. There’s only so much money to go around, after all.

Free-agent options beyond Grandal are much less enticing. However, the likes of Jason Castro, Travis d’Arnaud and Robinson Chirinos could be upgrades over the catchers the Angels have leaned on this year. And Yankees backup Austin Romine might be a name to watch as a soon-to-be free agent who shouldn’t cost much. Eppler was in New York’s front office for the early stages of Romine’s major league career.

3. Determine Kole Calhoun’s Future

The Angels are facing a tough decision on Calhoun, a career-long Angel who has been with the franchise since it spent an eighth-round pick on him in 2010. Now 31, Calhoun has evolved into a defensive standout who also offers capable offense. He has been solid in both regards this year en route to his fifth season with at least 2.0 fWAR, but that doesn’t mean the Angels will welcome him back in 2020. They could pick up Calhoun’s option for $14MM or buy him out for $1MM. For an Angels team with major issues to address elsewhere, it may be tempting to wave goodbye to Calhoun and spend the $13MM they’d save on him to address other areas of the roster. The club has a potential short-term replacement on hand in Brian Goodwin, who could occupy right field until super prospect Jo Adell is ready for a promotion next season.

Three Needs: Pittsburgh Pirates

By Jeff Todd | September 25, 2019 at 7:34am CDT

We’re continuing with our “Three Needs” series, in which we take a look at the chief issues to be addressed for clubs that have fallen out of contention. We’ve already focused on the Mariners, Tigers, White Sox, Marlins, and Rangers. Now we’ll cover the Pirates, who entered the All-Star break 2.5 games off of the pace in the NL Central before enduring a calamitous second half.

[Pittsburgh Pirates Depth Chart]

1. Market Starling Marte

The appropriate path depends to no small extent upon the market’s appetite for the Pirates’ assets. But it’s time to strongly pursue a sell-side approach to the winter after dabbling and pulling back this summer. That begins with Marte, the team’s excellent center fielder.

True, there isn’t a single standout team in the division, so it’s open to competition. The Pirates still have a good bit of MLB talent and perhaps some room to add salary. But the roster situation is not good. Top starter Jameson Taillon is going to miss most or all of the 2020 campaign. If the despicable allegations against closer Felipe Vazquez can be proven in court, he’ll deservedly spend the next few years in prison rather than pitching. There’s no spending out of this malaise for an organization that hasn’t topped $100MM in Opening Day payroll and opened this season at just $75MM.

Marte stands out as a marketable asset that could bring a strong return that will help this team find its way back to respectability. It’s hard to see a path within the next two seasons, after which he’ll be a free agent. And he’s no longer extremely cheap. But two option years that add up to just $24MM is still a relative bargain for a high-quality regular who is still 31 years of age. That’s especially true given that the upcoming free agent market is lean on center fielders.

2. Re-Think The Rotation

The Pirates have a fair amount of interesting infield and outfield talent at and near the MLB level. Plenty of questions remain to be answered, but that’s just how it goes with young players and low-revenue teams. Even if Marte is sent elsewhere, the club can mostly feel good about rolling with internal options with some affordable supplementation in the lineup.

It’s a different situation on the pitching side of things, especially in the rotation. Mitch Keller could yet be a future ace, and he showed intriguing K/BB numbers this year, but there’s plenty to iron out. Joe Musgrove had a nice year and might form a useful mid-rotation pairing with Trevor Williams if the latter can re-learn how to limit the long ball. Chris Archer … well, who knows, but the team probably can’t give up on him just yet.

Perhaps there’s an argument to be made for the Pirates mostly to remain internal with the staff. But even then, there’s room to add arms. If the Bucs move some Marte and a few others — Keone Kela would be the next-most-obvious candidate — then there’ll be loads of payroll space to work with. Investing in some intriguing bounceback arms could pay big dividends.

Regardless, the Pittsburgh organization needs to go back to the drawing board on its approach. There was a time not long ago when it was extracting big value from limited spending, but the formula isn’t working. (See here for a nice recent breakdown of the situation.) The league has adjusted, clearly, as the Pirates ended the season with a putrid 5.46 collective starter ERA (and that’s including Taillon). We’ve seen a historic barrage of home runs and rather drastic changes in pitching approaches. Such change inherently creates new opportunities for adjustment in the ever-evolving cat-and-mouse game pitchers and hitters. Your move, Bucs.

3. Seek A New Core Catcher

With Francisco Cervelli leaving town, the Bucs need to try to find a replacement. Elias Diaz has had an exceedingly rough season by more or less every measure, with a 61 wRC+ and brutal framing numbers. Jacob Stallings had a much more solid campaign, though the 29-year-old has never before been trusted with a significant role.

It seems fair to presume that one or both of those incumbents will fill innings usefully in 2020. But it’d be disappointing to rely on them as a duo for another full season. Given the pitching turmoil, it’s especially important to have a steadying presence behind the dish. And this could even be an area the Pirates can look to for some upside.

It’s hard to pry loose good, young catchers. But there could be some possibilities. Austin Hedges stands out as a target. He may never fully come around with the bat, but is by any measure a top-flight defender. There’s little reason to think the club will have a shot at top free agent Yasmani Grandal. But Travis d’Arnaud would be an interesting player to take a bit of a risk on with a longer contract. And there are loads of respected veterans out there if a bigger strike can’t be found, including some bounceback candidates such as Yan Gomes (if the Nats don’t pick up his option).

Three Needs: Texas Rangers

By Connor Byrne | September 24, 2019 at 8:13pm CDT

We’re bringing back our “Three Needs” series, in which we take a look at the chief issues to be addressed for clubs that have fallen out of contention. We’ve already focused on the Mariners, Tigers, White Sox and Marlins. Now we’re on to the Rangers, who surprisingly hung in playoff contention for the season’s first few months. Reality has set in as the year has progressed, though, leaving Texas on track for its third consecutive sub-.500 season. With a new ballpark opening in 2020, Rangers general manager Jon Daniels could oversee an aggressive winter in an effort to get the club back to being a legitimate playoff contender. We already argued that upgrading at catcher should be on Daniels’ offseason to-do list, so we’ll leave that position out of this piece and focus on other areas Daniels could address in the next several months…

[Texas Rangers Depth Chart]

1. Consider Major Changes In The Infield

Arguably no team in the league has been worse off in the infield than the Rangers, whose first, second, third basemen and shortstops have combined for a paltry 2.5 fWAR. Utilityman Danny Santana and second/third baseman Nick Solak, an August call-up, are the only members of the group who have posted above-average offensive numbers. Although Santana’s numbers have dramatically plummeted over the season’s final couple months, he could again play an important multi-positional role for the Rangers in 2020. And Solak, whom the Rangers acquired back in June, is probably someone they will count on for plenty of at-bats next season. Things aren’t as promising otherwise, though, as Ronald Guzman has been one of the game’s worst offensive first basemen for the second straight year, and the well-compensated double-play tandem of second baseman Rougned Odor and shortstop Elvis Andrus has fallen flat.

Texas brass has made its disappointment with the production of Guzman (whom the club optioned earlier in the summer), Odor and Andrus known this year, which could suggest the team will try to upgrade at those spots. The contracts of Odor and Andrus are problematic, however, with the former still owed $36MM through 2022 and the latter under wraps for the same period of time for $43MM.

At the very least, Andrus figures to return as the Rangers’ main shortstop next year, though it doesn’t appear the team’s inclined to hand him a starting spot. How the Rangers handle the rest of their infield could depend in part on where they expect Santana and Solak to primarily line up. Either may spend a lot of time at third, but the Rangers could reportedly prioritize the position in the offseason, meaning it’s possible they’ll attempt to reel in a big fish via free agency. The top free agent-to-be at the position, Nationals MVP candidate Anthony Rendon, happens to be from Texas. That could give the Rangers a bit of an edge in courting him. He’ll likely command a contract worth $150MM or more, though. If that’s too rich for the Rangers’ blood, fellow pending free agents Josh Donaldson and Mike Moustakas would provide upgrades for the club at more palatable prices. The free-agent lists at first and second base are decidedly less exciting, but the Rangers shouldn’t have to spend a ton of money at either position to get better production in 2020 than the weak output they’ve received from those places this season.

2. Find Some Complements To Lance Lynn And Extension Candidate Mike Minor

The Rangers’ starting staff ranks a solid 10th in the majors in fWAR (11.7), but almost that entire total (10.4) has come from two pitchers: Lynn and Minor. Daniels struck gold in free agency on that pair, adding Lynn on a three-year, $30MM guarantee last offseason and Minor for three years and $28MM going into 2018. The Rangers’ rotation will need at least one more pickup along those lines during the upcoming winter, as the unit doesn’t offer much beyond Lynn, Minor and the 22-year-old Kolby Allard – an in-season acquisition who has performed adequately over eight starts.

Baseball’s best pending free agent, Astros righty and potential AL Cy Young winner Gerrit Cole, may well land on the Rangers’ radar. But the Rangers will be among a slew of other teams in on Cole if they enter that race, which could culminate in a $200MM-plus contract for him. Daniels showed with the Lynn and Minor signings that he doesn’t necessarily have to back up the Brink’s trick to find front-line starter production in free agency, and with those two around, maybe the Rangers will focus more on mid- to back-end rotation pieces than a ridiculously expensive ace like Cole. Either way, they could work to extend Minor, who’s under contract for just one more year. Trading Minor looked like a possibility as recently as July, but the Rangers opted against it. Perhaps they’ll revisit that possibility in the offseason, though they’ll certainly be hard-pressed to push for a playoff spot next season if they deal Minor prior to then.

3. Explore A Joey Gallo Extension

Injuries have been a problem over the past few months for Gallo, who fractured his right hamate bone July 23 and hasn’t played since. However, when he has taken the field this season, Gallo has performed like a franchise-caliber position player. While the 25-year-old’s penchant for striking out has continued in 2019, he has nonetheless slashed .253/.389/.598 (144 wRC+) with 22 home runs and 3.3 fWAR in 297 trips to the plate. Defensively, Gallo has graded as a plus player in both left and center field.

Gallo’s high-end production this season has come at a minimal salary, but those days are about to end for the soon-to-be arbitration-eligible slugger. Texas can still control him for three more years even if it doesn’t extend him, but the club should arguably try to lock him up now off an injury-plagued season. Granted, considering Gallo’s a Scott Boras client, doing so wouldn’t be easy. Back in May, Evan Grant of the Dallas Morning News posited it could take a seven-year, $150MM offer to extend Gallo, though that was before injuries knocked his season off track. In any case, if the Rangers are convinced Gallo’s a true organizational centerpiece, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see them attempt to sign him for the long haul.

Three Needs: Miami Marlins

By Jeff Todd | September 23, 2019 at 8:36pm CDT

[Miami Marlins Depth Chart]

1. Give Away Fewer Corner OF/IF Plate Appearances

The Marlins are not good, and that’s not surprising. There wasn’t a path to being good in 2019 and there isn’t a path to being good in 2020, either. But that doesn’t mean the team ought to be plugging in replacement-level, low-ceiling players — especially in areas of the field where there’s opportunity.

There’s value in having some veteran clubhouse members and perhaps also in rewarding some hustling, marginal major leaguers. But the Marlins need to be maxing out their opportunities to dig up interesting talent and develop their own players. And in 2019, they dedicated a few too many outfield and corner infield plate appearances to less-than-promising players.

The Marlins did give chances to potentially interesting late-bloomers Garrett Cooper and Harold Ramirez with generally middling results. But it’d be nice to see the organization take chances on more and younger players with so many possibilities flying around the waiver wire. No doubt there are some underappreciated bats out there just waiting for an opportunity. In 2019, the Fish have handed over a thousand total plate appearances at corner positions to Neil Walker, Curtis Granderson, Martin Prado, Isaac Galloway, and Peter O’Brien.

2. Chase Upside With Extensions

We know the Marlins are willing to do multi-year deals with existing players since they just inked one with shortstop Miguel Rojas. But that was more about locking in a solid, internally valued veteran for a brief stretch than it was the pursuit of a value-laden contract with a young talent.

Not every rebuilding team is in a position to consider lengthy pacts with young players. The Marlins are. They’ve surely seen enough good things from Brian Anderson to pursue a deal. There’s a strong argument for talking with Jorge Alfaro, who’s also entering his final winter before arbitration. On the pitching side, Caleb Smith and Sandy Alcantara are interesting targets.

It might seem premature to begin committing future payroll space when the Marlins still don’t know when they’ll be able to compete again. But this isn’t just (or even primarily) about locking in pieces for this organization. It’s about attempting to make good assets even better ones — even if that entails some risk — whether for a future Miami contender or for trade bait.

3. Load Up The Bullpen With Interesting Arms

It took some doin’, but the Marlins managed to finish the season with the worst bullpen in the NL East — and the rest of baseball as well, if that needed to be specified — by measure of fWAR. And that’s including Nick Anderson and Sergio Romo, who logged 1.5 fWAR before being traded away. Absent those two hurlers, this was a remarkable -3.7 fWAR unit.

That’s not the be-all, end-all measure of relief work. Rebuilding teams don’t really need reliable bullpens. But it’s awfully dispiriting to a team (let alone a fanbase) to watch winnable games melt away. And, more importantly, it points to an opportunity.

The Marlins know the drill here. They already cashed in on the aforementioned Anderson, who was acquired for a song. And they just picked up lefty Josh Smith on a similar premise. There ought to be more where that came from. In addition to waiver targets, the Marlins can consider bounceback veterans with some degree of upside along with minor-league free agents.

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