Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 AM EDT Tue Jul 09 2024

Valid 12Z Tue Jul 09 2024 - 12Z Thu Jul 11 2024

...Beryl to bring  heavy rain and flooding from the Lower Arkansas River
Valley, northeast into the Middle Mississippi Valley, Lower Ohio Valley
and Lower Great Lakes...

...Record high temperatures to continue into mid week across large
portions of the west coast, while record high minimum temperatures stretch
from the Gulf coast, northeast along the East coast...

Beryl is expected to move steadily northeastward from central Arkansas
today into the Lower Ohio Valley tonight and into the Lower Great Lakes on
Wednesday. While the wind speeds associated with Beryl will continue to
weaken as it moves farther from the Gulf of Mexico, the storm will
continue to be a prolific heavy rain producer as it pushes northeastward.
Widespread heavy rains and thunderstorms are likely along and to the
northeast of the path of Beryl over the next two days with rainfall totals
of 2-5" from central Arkansas, across southeast Missouri, central to
southern Illinois, Indiana into the southern portions of the L.P. of
Michigan and then over portions of upstate New York and Vermont/New
Hampshire. These amounts are following the 5 to 10+ inches of rain that
fell along the path of Beryl as it pushed inland earlier Monday along the
central Texas Gulf Coast. Severe thunderstorms capable of producing
tornadoes will be possible over portions of the lower Ohio Valley today
followed by the interior Northeast on Wednesday. A higher end Slight Risk
(at least 25%) of Excessive Rainfall leading to Flash Flooding is in
effect for portions of upstate New York into Vermont on Wednesday. Flood
watches are currently in effect along the path of Beryl from northern
Arkansas, northeastward into the southeastern L.P. Michigan, affecting
over 21 million people.

No let up expected to the string of record high temperatures being set
across large portions of the West. The mid to upper-level high that has
been anchoring the record record heat in the West is not expected to
change much over the next several days, as it remains locked in place,
stretching from Southern California/Desert Southwest, northward through
the Great Basin and across the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies.
Excessive Heat Warnings, Watches, and Heat Advisories are currently in
effect for nearly all of Washington State, Oregon, California, Idaho,
Nevada and western Arizona.  Numerous record high temperatures are
expected across these areas over the next few days where high temperatures
will be anywhere from 10 to as high as 30 degrees above average. In
addition to the record high daily temperatures, the early morning lows are
also expected to set records across large portions of the West over the
coming two mornings. The multi-day length and record warm overnight
temperatures will continue to cause heat stress to anyone without adequate
cooling and hydration.

Elsewhere, much above average temperatures also likely to remain in place
along much of the east over the next few days.  While there is not
forecast to be many record high temperatures across the East over the next
few days, numerous record high minimum temperatures are likely from the
eastern Gulf coast, through the Southeast, Mid-Atlantic and into southern
New England. Heat advisories are currently in effect across large portions
of the South, Southeast, Mid-Atlantic and southern New England with this
likely to continue over the next few days. An Excessive Heat Warning is in
effect across portions of southwestern West Virginia for this afternoon
due to the combination of hot temperatures and high humidity create a
dangerous situation in which heat related illnesses are likely.

Kebede/Oravec

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php