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{{Short description|Incorrect perception of others' beliefs}}
{{Copy edit|date=February 2024}}
[[File:20220823 Public underestimation of public support for climate action - poll - false social reality.svg|thumb|upright=1.5 | Research found that 80–90% of Americans underestimate the prevalence of support for major [[climate change mitigation]] policies and climate concern among fellow Americans. While 66–80% Americans support these policies, Americans estimate the prevalence to be 37–43%—barely half as much. Researchers have called this misperception a ''false social reality'', a form of pluralistic ignorance.<ref name=NatureComms_20220823>{{cite journal |last1=Sparkman |first1=Gregg |last2=Geiger |first2=Nathan |last3=Weber |first3=Elke U. |title=Americans experience a false social reality by underestimating popular climate policy support by nearly half |journal=Nature Communications |date=23 August 2022 |volume=13 |issue=1 |page=4779 |doi=10.1038/s41467-022-32412-y |pmid=35999211 |pmc=9399177 |bibcode=2022NatCo..13.4779S |doi-access=free}}</ref><ref>{{cite web |last1=Yoder |first1=Kate |title=Americans are convinced climate action is unpopular. They're very, very wrong. / Support for climate policies is double what most people think, a new study found. |url=https://grist.org/politics/americans-think-climate-action-unpopular-wrong-study/ |website=Grist |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20220829104543/https://grist.org/politics/americans-think-climate-action-unpopular-wrong-study/ |archive-date=29 August 2022 |date=29 August 2022 |url-status=live}}</ref>]]
In [[social psychology]], '''pluralistic ignorance''' (also known as a collective illusion)<ref>{{cite journal |last1=Bicchieri |first1=Cristina |last2=Fukui |first2=Yoshitaka |title=The Great Illusion: Ignorance, Informational Cascades, and the Persistence of Unpopular Norms |url=https://www.jstor.org/stable/3857639 |journal=Business Ethics Quarterly |pages=127–155 |doi=10.2307/3857639 |date=1999|volume=9 |issue=1 |jstor=3857639 |url-access=subscription}}</ref> is a phenomenon in which people mistakenly believe that others predominantly hold an opinion different from their own.<ref>{{cite news |last1=Nickerson |first1=Charlotte |title=Pluralistic Ignorance: Definition & Examples |url=https://www.simplypsychology.org/pluralistic-ignorance.html |work=www.simplypsychology.org |date=May 11, 2022}}</ref> In this phenomenon, most people in a group may go along with a view they do not hold because they think, incorrectly, that most other people in the group hold it. Pluralistic ignorance encompasses situations in which a minority position on a given topic is wrongly perceived to be the majority position, or the majority position is wrongly perceived to be a minority position.<ref>{{Cite journal|last1=Miller|first1=Dale T.|last2=McFarland|first2=Cathy|date=1987|title=Pluralistic ignorance: When similarity is interpreted as dissimilarity.|url=http://dx.doi.org/10.1037/0022-3514.53.2.298|journal=Journal of Personality and Social Psychology|volume=53|issue=2|pages=298–305|doi=10.1037/0022-3514.53.2.298|issn=0022-3514}}</ref><ref>{{cite book|last1=Katz |first1=Daniel |first2=Floyd Henry |last2=Allport |first3=Margaret Babcock |last3=Jenness |title=Students' attitudes; a report of the Syracuse University reaction study |year=1931 |location=Syracuse, N.Y. |publisher=Craftsman Press}}</ref>
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=== Public concern for climate change ===
Pluralistic ignorance has also been blamed for large majorities of the public remaining silent on climate change—while 'solid majorities' of the American and UK public are concerned about climate change, most erroneously believe they are in the minority with their concern.<ref name="Climate of Silence">{{cite journal |last1=Geiger |first1=Nathaniel |last2=Swim |first2=Janet K |title=Climate of silence: Pluralistic ignorance as a barrier to climate change discussion |journal=Journal of Environmental Psychology |date=September 2016 |volume=47 |pages=79–90 |doi=10.1016/j.jenvp.2016.05.002 |url=https://climateaccess.org/sites/default/files/Climate%20of%20silence-%20Pluralistic%20ignorance%20as%20a%20barrier%20tClimate%20of%20silence-%20Pluralistic%20ignorance%20as%20a%20barrier%20to%20climate%20change%20discussiono%20climate%20change%20discussion.pdf |access-date=4 September 2018|doi-access=free}}</ref> It has been suggested that [[pollution]]-intensive industries have contributed to the public's underestimation of public support for climate solutions.<ref name="Second-Order Opinions for Climate Politics">{{cite journal |last1=Mildenberger |first1=Matto |last2=Tingley |first2=Dustin |title=Beliefs about Climate Beliefs: The Importance of Second-Order Opinions for Climate Politics |journal=British Journal of Political Science |date=December 2017 |volume=49 |issue=4 |pages=1279–1307 |doi=10.1017/S0007123417000321 |url=https://climateadvocacylab.org/system/files/mildenbergertingley_bjps.pdf |access-date=4 September 2018}}</ref> For example, in the U.S., support for pollution pricing is high,<ref name="Politics and Global Warming, March 2018">{{cite web |last1=Leiserowitz |first1=A |last2=Maibach |first2=E |last3=Roser-Renouf |first3=C |last4=Cutler |first4=M |last5=Kotcher |first5=J |title=Politics and Global Warming, March 2018 |url=http://climatecommunication.yale.edu/wp-content/uploads/2018/05/Global-Warming-Policy-Politics-March-2018.pdf |publisher=Yale University and George Mason University |access-date=4 September 2018}}</ref><ref name="Yale Climate Opinion Maps">{{cite web |last1=Marlon |first1=Jennifer |last2=Howe |first2=Peter |last3=Mildenberger |first3=Matto |last4=Leiserowitz |first4=Anthony |last5=Wang |first5=Xinran |title=Yale Climate Opinion Maps 2018 |url=http://climatecommunication.yale.edu/visualizations-data/ycom-us-2018/?est=reducetax&type=value&geo=cd |website=Yale Program on Climate Change Communication |access-date=4 September 2018 |archive-date=1 October 2021 |archive-url=https://web.archive.org/web/20211001120027/https://climatecommunication.yale.edu/visualizations-data/ycom-us-2018/?est=reducetax&type=value&geo=cd |url-status=dead }}</ref> yet public perception of public support is much lower.<ref name="Second-Order Opinions for Climate Politics" />
In August 2022, ''[[Nature Communications]]'' published a survey with 6,119 [[Sampling (statistics)|representatively sampled]] Americans that found that 66 to 80% of Americans supported major climate change mitigation policies (i.e. [[100% renewable energy]] by 2035, [[Green New Deal]], [[Carbon fee and dividend|carbon tax and dividend]], renewable energy production siting on [[public land]]) and expressed climate concern, but that 80 to 90% of Americans underestimated the prevalence of support for such policies and such concern by their fellow Americans (with the sample estimating that only 37 to 43% on average supported such policies). Americans in every state and every assessed demographic (e.g. [[Political ideologies in the United States|political ideology]], [[Race and ethnicity in the United States|racial group]], [[List of United States urban areas|urban]]/[[suburb]]an/[[Rural areas in the United States|rural]] residence, [[Educational attainment in the United States|educational attainment]]) underestimated support across all policies tested, and every state survey group and every demographic assessed underestimated support for the climate policies by at least 20 percentage points. The researchers attributed the misperception among the general public to pluralistic ignorance. Conservatives were found to underestimate support for the policies due to a [[false consensus effect]], [[Red states and blue states#Polarization|exposure to more conservative local norms]], and consumption of [[Media bias in the United States#Conservative|conservative news]], while liberals were suggested to underestimate support for the policies due to a [[false-uniqueness effect]].<ref name="NatureComms_20220823" /><ref>{{cite news |last=Clifford |first=Catherine |date=August 24, 2022 |title=Americans don't think other Americans care about climate change as much as they do |publisher=CNBC |url=https://www.cnbc.com/2022/08/24/americans-underestimate-how-much-their-peers-care-about-climate-change.html |access-date=August 27, 2022}}</ref>
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Perhaps the most researched consequence of pluralistic ignorance from an individualistic perspective is the [[bystander effect]]. In its most rudimentary form, the bystander effect describes a situation in which an individual is witnessing an event that prompts a strong set of emotions, yet they choose not to act on them since the surrounding "bystanders" are making no visible efforts to act, giving the impression that the individual's feelings toward the situation are invalid and not shared.<ref name="Miller-2023" /> This ultimately can result in a lack of action from everyone witnessing the event when action may be the appropriate choice given the situation.<ref name="Miller-2023" />
Maintaining the perspective of the individual, pluralistic ignorance can also cause people to feel alienated from a specific group.<ref>{{
==Related phenomena==
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*[[Conformity]]
*''[[Peaceful Revolution|Die Wende]]''
*[[False consensus effect]]
*''[[Glasnost]]''
*[[Groupthink]]
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