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2008 United States presidential election in Kentucky - Wikipedia
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2008 United States presidential election in Kentucky

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Main article: 2008 United States presidential election

The 2008 United States presidential election in Kentucky took place on November 4, 2008, and was part of the 2008 United States presidential election. Voters chose eight representatives, or electors to the Electoral College, who voted for president and vice president.

2008 United States presidential election in Kentucky
← 2004 November 4, 2008 2012 →
Turnout64.04%[1]Decrease
 
Nominee John McCain Barack Obama
Party Republican Democratic
Home state Arizona Illinois
Running mate Sarah Palin Joe Biden
Electoral vote 8 0
Popular vote 1,048,462 751,985
Percentage 57.40% 41.17%
County Results
President before election

George W. Bush
Republican

Elected President

Barack Obama
Democratic

Kentucky was won by Republican nominee John McCain by a 16.23% margin of victory. Prior to the election, all 17 news organizations considered this a state McCain would win, or otherwise a red state. In the primaries, Hillary Clinton slightly defeated McCain in hypothetical polls for the Bluegrass State. Once Barack Obama secured the Democratic nomination, Kentucky was reclassified as safe for the GOP. In the end, Kentucky voted for McCain with 57.40% of the vote. Obama did, however, improve on John Kerry's performance by two points. This was the first time since 1960 where Kentucky did not vote for the winning candidate in a presidential election. This was also the first time ever that Floyd and Knott Counties voted for the Republican candidate.

As of 2020, this is the last time a Democrat won over 40% of the vote as a presidential candidate in Kentucky.

Primaries

Campaign

Predictions

There were 16 news organizations who made state-by-state predictions of the election. Here are their last predictions before election day:

Source Ranking
D.C. Political Report[2] Likely R
Cook Political Report[3] Solid R
The Takeaway[4] Solid R
Electoral-vote.com[5] Solid R
Washington Post[6] Solid R
Politico[7] Solid R
RealClearPolitics[8] Solid R
FiveThirtyEight[6] Solid R
CQ Politics[9] Solid R
The New York Times[10] Solid R
CNN[11] Safe R
NPR[6] Solid R
MSNBC[6] Solid R
Fox News[12] Likely R
Associated Press[13] Likely R
Rasmussen Reports[14] Safe R

Polling

Main article: Statewide opinion polling for the United States presidential election, 2008: Kentucky

McCain won every pre-election poll, almost all of them by a double-digit margin and with at least 49% of the vote. The final 3 polls averaged McCain leading 56% to 41%.[15]

Fundraising

John McCain raised a total of $1,220,017. Barack Obama raised $2,394,198.[16]

Advertising and visits

Obama spent $183,738 while a conservative interest groups spent just $212.[17] Each ticket visited the state once.[18]

Analysis

Since 1964, Kentucky has only gone Democratic three times--Jimmy Carter in 1976 and Bill Clinton in 1992 and 1996, both of whom were White Anglo Saxon Protestants (WASPs) from the South, whereas Obama was an African American "big-city liberal" from Chicago. (Similar socio-cultural dynamics existed in other southern Appalachian states with a large ancestral Democratic base, such as Tennessee, West Virginia, and Arkansas.)

In the 2008 primary, exits polls conducted found that 30 percent of Clinton supporters opted not to vote for Obama in the general election, 40% would vote McCain and the rest would support Obama in the general election. Several counties in the southeastern part of the state swung Republican and went to McCain as solidly Democratic Floyd and Knott counties voted Republican for the first time ever, and Breathitt County voted Republican for the first time since 1908. Obama decided to not spend campaign funds on Kentucky and instead went to more viable battleground states like North Carolina and Indiana instead. McCain won Kentucky by a margin of 16.22 points on election day and performed slightly worse than George Bush in 2004. Obama improved upon Kerry's performance in big cities and urban areas while McCain improved upon Bush in rural areas. Kentucky was the first state called for McCain an hour before Vermont was called for Obama.

At the same time, incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Mitch McConnell, who also served as Senate Minority Leader at the time, was just narrowly reelected with 52.97% of the vote to Democrat Bruce Lunsford's 47.03%. Republicans also held onto an open seat vacated by Ron Lewis in Kentucky's 2nd Congressional District. At the state level, however, Democrats picked up two seats in the Kentucky House of Representatives.

As of the 2020 presidential election, this is the last election in which Rowan County, Hancock County, Menifee County, Wolfe County, and Henderson County voted for the Democratic candidate.

Results

United States presidential election in Kentucky, 2008
Party Candidate Running mate Votes Percentage Electoral votes
Republican John McCain Sarah Palin 1,048,462 57.40% 8
Democratic Barack Obama Joe Biden 751,985 41.17% 0
Independent Ralph Nader Matt Gonzalez 15,378 0.84% 0
Libertarian Bob Barr Wayne Allyn Root 5,989 0.33% 0
Constitution Chuck Baldwin Darrell Castle 4,694 0.26% 0
Totals 1,826,508 100.00% 8
Voter turnout (Voting age population) 57.5%

Results breakdown

By county

County Obama% Obama# McCain% McCain# Others% Others# Total
Adair 25.11% 1,888 73.32% 5,512 1.57% 118 7,518
Allen 27.38% 2,023 71.16% 5,258 1.46% 108 7,389
Anderson 32.81% 3,461 65.25% 6,884 1.94% 205 10,550
Ballard 35.15% 1,427 62.49% 2,537 2.36% 96 4,060
Barren 32.33% 5,434 66.24% 11,133 1.43% 240 16,807
Bath 48.65% 2,210 49.17% 2,234 2.18% 99 4,543
Bell 28.99% 2,782 69.61% 6,681 1.41% 135 9,598
Boone 32.09% 16,292 66.59% 33,812 1.32% 670 50,774
Bourbon 40.64% 3,385 57.86% 4,820 1.50% 125 8,330
Boyd 42.99% 8,886 55.30% 11,429 1.71% 354 20,669
Boyle 37.73% 4,764 60.96% 7,697 1.31% 165 12,626
Bracken 36.51% 1,241 60.78% 2,066 2.71% 92 3,399
Breathitt 43.84% 2,205 53.10% 2,671 3.06% 154 5,030
Breckinridge 36.49% 3,110 61.97% 5,281 1.54% 131 8,522
Bullitt 33.12% 10,177 65.42% 20,102 1.45% 447 30,726
Butler 29.30% 1,555 69.64% 3,696 1.06% 56 5,307
Caldwell 35.68% 2,212 62.36% 3,866 1.95% 121 6,199
Calloway 40.02% 6,165 58.37% 8,991 1.61% 248 15,404
Campbell 38.77% 15,619 59.68% 24,045 1.55% 626 40,290
Carlisle 33.59% 879 64.92% 1,699 1.49% 39 2,617
Carroll 44.75% 1,716 52.99% 2,032 2.27% 87 3,835
Carter 43.97% 4,314 53.53% 5,252 2.50% 245 9,811
Casey 20.46% 1,219 78.55% 4,679 0.99% 59 5,957
Christian 39.15% 8,822 59.97% 13,515 0.88% 199 22,536
Clark 36.79% 5,749 61.84% 9,664 1.38% 215 15,628
Clay 21.08% 1,552 77.54% 5,710 1.39% 102 7,364
Clinton 18.24% 761 80.68% 3,366 1.08% 45 4,172
Crittenden 31.91% 1,254 66.26% 2,604 1.83% 72 3,930
Cumberland 24.92% 697 73.51% 2,056 1.57% 44 2,797
Daviess 44.20% 19,282 54.31% 23,692 1.49% 648 43,622
Edmonson 31.35% 1,652 67.59% 3,562 1.06% 56 5,270
Elliott 61.03% 1,535 35.86% 902 3.10% 78 2,515
Estill 29.26% 1,555 69.35% 3,685 1.39% 74 5,314
Fayette 51.74% 66,040 46.92% 59,884 1.34% 1,713 127,637
Fleming 39.08% 2,279 58.85% 3,432 2.07% 121 5,832
Floyd 48.09% 7,530 49.43% 7,741 2.48% 388 15,659
Franklin 48.87% 11,767 49.47% 11,911 1.67% 401 24,079
Fulton 43.58% 1,226 54.39% 1,530 2.03% 57 2,813
Gallatin 40.03% 1,278 57.63% 1,840 2.35% 75 3,193
Garrard 27.91% 2,012 70.98% 5,117 1.11% 80 7,209
Grant 35.15% 3,109 63.37% 5,605 1.48% 131 8,845
Graves 36.17% 5,843 62.25% 10,056 1.58% 256 16,155
Grayson 31.85% 3,154 66.70% 6,605 1.45% 144 9,903
Green 23.71% 1,204 74.52% 3,785 1.77% 90 5,079
Greenup 41.91% 6,621 56.01% 8,849 2.08% 328 15,798
Hancock 51.49% 2,128 46.55% 1,924 1.96% 81 4,133
Hardin 39.13% 15,650 59.75% 23,896 1.11% 444 39,990
Harlan 26.08% 2,586 72.27% 7,165 1.64% 163 9,914
Harrison 38.42% 2,916 59.55% 4,520 2.03% 154 7,590
Hart 33.59% 2,290 64.49% 4,397 1.92% 131 6,818
Henderson 50.60% 10,049 47.95% 9,523 1.46% 289 19,861
Henry 39.38% 2,724 58.99% 4,081 1.63% 113 6,918
Hickman 36.09% 812 62.49% 1,406 1.42% 32 2,250
Hopkins 36.72% 7,104 61.59% 11,916 1.70% 328 19,348
Jackson 14.22% 743 84.36% 4,407 1.42% 74 5,224
Jefferson 55.50% 196,272 43.51% 153,865 0.99% 3,500 353,637
Jessamine 30.85% 6,236 67.83% 13,710 1.32% 267 20,213
Johnson 28.26% 2,413 69.84% 5,964 1.90% 162 8,539
Kenton 38.82% 26,480 59.69% 40,714 1.49% 1,019 68,213
Knott 44.97% 2,523 52.58% 2,950 2.46% 138 5,611
Knox 26.99% 3,074 71.56% 8,150 1.45% 165 11,389
LaRue 30.96% 1,913 67.22% 4,153 1.81% 112 6,178
Laurel 20.52% 4,593 78.48% 17,563 0.99% 222 22,378
Lawrence 36.04% 2,036 62.01% 3,503 1.95% 110 5,649
Lee 27.12% 752 71.33% 1,978 1.55% 43 2,773
Leslie 17.42% 766 81.28% 3,574 1.30% 57 4,397
Letcher 31.85% 2,623 65.17% 5,367 2.98% 245 8,235
Lewis 31.52% 1,510 67.06% 3,213 1.42% 68 4,791
Lincoln 30.07% 2,752 68.55% 6,273 1.38% 126 9,151
Livingston 35.31% 1,622 62.92% 2,890 1.76% 81 4,593
Logan 35.00% 3,811 63.59% 6,925 1.41% 154 10,890
Lyon 40.91% 1,577 57.59% 2,220 1.50% 58 3,855
McCracken 38.12% 11,285 60.57% 19,043 1.31% 426 32,512
McCreary 45.66% 2,105 52.80% 2,434 1.54% 71 4,610
McLean 44.39% 1,963 53.96% 2,386 1.65% 73 4,422
Madison 36.07% 12,392 61.02% 19,694 2.91% 451 15,507
Magoffin 21.58% 808 75.43% 2,824 2.99% 112 3,744
Marion 40.32% 2,891 57.21% 4,102 2.47% 177 7,170
Marshall 36.85% 5,593 62.19% 9,463 0.95% 292 30,620
Martin 23.31% 1,258 75.57% 4,078 1.11% 60 5,396
Mason 40.60% 2,891 57.60% 4,102 1.8% 128 7,121
Meade 38.76% 4,343 59.71% 6,691 1.53% 172 11,206
Menifee 51.27% 1,276 46.40% 1,155 2.33% 58 2,489
Mercer 31.40% 3,159 67.41% 6,781 1.19% 120 10,060
Metcalfe 32.15% 1,350 65.11% 2,734 2.74% 115 4,199
Monroe 22.87% 1,067 75.82% 3,537 1.31% 61 4,665
Montgomery 40.98% 4,234 57.56% 5,947 1.45% 150 10,331
Morgan 42.82% 1,858 54.78% 2,377 2.40% 104 4,339
Muhlenberg 48.27% 6,221 50.02% 6,447 1.71% 221 12,889
Nelson 42.18% 7,654 55.87% 10,139 1.95% 353 18,146
Nicholas 42.83% 1,272 55.02% 1,634 2.15% 64 2,970
Ohio 40.46% 4,059 57.63% 5,781 1.91% 192 10,032
Oldham 34.11% 9,996 64.80% 18,992 1.09% 319 29,307
Owen 35.66% 1,694 62.49% 2,969 1.85% 88 4,751
Owsley 22.60% 381 75.86% 1,279 1.54% 26 1,686
Pendleton 34.94% 2,027 63.36% 3,676 1.71% 99 5,802
Perry 33.20% 3,444 65.18% 6,762 1.63% 169 10,375
Pike 42.05% 9,525 55.91% 12,665 2.04% 463 22,653
Powell 41.28% 2,065 57.32% 2,867 1.40% 70 5,002
Pulaski 21.70% 5,590 77.09% 19,862 1.22% 314 25,766
Robertson 44.43% 451 52.51% 533 3.05% 31 1,015
Rockcastle 22.47% 1,410 75.82% 4,757 1.71% 107 6,274
Rowan 49.96% 4,074 47.92% 3,907 2.12% 173 8,154
Russell 21.31% 1,579 76.97% 5,702 1.71% 127 7,408
Scott 39.09% 7,712 59.72% 11,782 1.20% 236 19,730
Shelby 37.06% 6,871 61.76% 11,451 1.18% 218 18,540
Simpson 37.97% 2,775 60.71% 4,437 1.33% 97 7,309
Spencer 31.30% 2,519 66.82% 5,378 1.89% 152 8,049
Taylor 29.14% 3,165 69.69% 7,568 1.17% 127 10,860
Todd 31.23% 1,543 67.52% 3,336 1.25% 62 4,941
Trigg 34.41% 2,246 64.18% 4,189 1.41% 92 6,527
Trimble 38.93% 1,484 58.74% 2,239 2.33% 89 3,812
Union 46.47% 2,804 51.71% 3,120 1.82% 110 6,034
Warren 40.03% 17,650 58.87% 25,957 1.10% 483 44,090
Washington 35.83% 1,890 62.65% 3,305 1.52% 80 5,275
Wayne 30.59% 2,201 67.65% 4,868 1.76% 127 7,196
Webster 43.14% 2,390 54.82% 3,037 2.04% 113 5,540
Whitley 25.43% 3,484 73.08% 10,014 1.50% 205 13,703
Wolfe 50.30% 1,493 47.44% 1,408 2.26% 67 2,968
Woodford 40.88% 5,027 57.98% 7,130 1.14% 140 12,297

By congressional district

John McCain carried 5 of the state's 6 congressional districts, including one of the two districts held by a Democrat.

District McCain Obama Representative
1st 61.85% 36.60% Ed Whitfield
2nd 60.54% 38.03% Ron Lewis (110th Congress)
Brett Guthrie (111th Congress)
3rd 43.36% 55.66% John Yarmuth
4th 60.41% 37.96% Geoff Davis
5th 67.01% 31.24% Hal Rogers
6th 55.41% 43.22% Ben Chandler

Electors

Main article: List of 2008 United States presidential electors

Technically the voters of Kentucky cast their ballots for electors: representatives to the Electoral College. Kentucky is allocated 8 electors because it has 6 congressional districts and 2 senators. All candidates who appear on the ballot or qualify to receive write-in votes must submit a list of 8 electors, who pledge to vote for their candidate and his or her running mate. Whoever wins the majority of votes in the state is awarded all 8 electoral votes. Their chosen electors then vote for president and vice president. Although electors are pledged to their candidate and running mate, they are not obligated to vote for them.[19] An elector who votes for someone other than his or her candidate is known as a faithless elector.

The electors of each state and the District of Columbia met on December 15, 2008, to cast their votes for president and vice president. The Electoral College itself never meets as one body. Instead the electors from each state and the District of Columbia met in their respective capitols.

The following were the members of the Electoral College from the state. All 8 were pledged to John McCain and Sarah Palin:[20]

  1. James Henry Snider
  2. Walter A. Baker
  3. Edna M. Fulkerson
  4. Amy B. Towles
  5. Nancy Mitchell
  6. Don Ball
  7. Robert Gable
  8. Elizabeth G. Thomas

References

  1. ^ https://elect.ky.gov/SiteCollectionDocuments/Election%20Statistics/turnout/2006-2010/08gen.pdf
  2. ^ "D.C.'s Political Report: The complete source for campaign summaries". 2009-01-01. Archived from the original on 2009-01-01. Retrieved 2021-08-23.
  3. ^ "Presidential". 2015-05-05. Archived from the original on 2015-05-05. Retrieved 2021-08-23.
  4. ^ "Vote 2008 - The Takeaway - Track the Electoral College vote predictions". 2009-04-22. Archived from the original on 2009-04-22. Retrieved 2021-08-23.
  5. ^ "Electoral-vote.com: President, Senate, House Updated Daily". electoral-vote.com. Retrieved 2021-08-23.
  6. ^ a b c d Based on Takeaway
  7. ^ "POLITICO's 2008 Swing State Map - POLITICO.com". www.politico.com. Retrieved 2016-09-22.
  8. ^ http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/maps/obama_vs_mccain/?map=5 [bare URL]
  9. ^ "CQ Presidential Election Maps, 2008". CQ Politics. Archived from the original on June 14, 2009. Retrieved December 20, 2009.
  10. ^ Nagourney, Adam; Zeleny, Jeff; Carter, Shan (2008-11-04). "The Electoral Map: Key States". The New York Times. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  11. ^ "October – 2008 – CNN Political Ticker - CNN.com Blogs". CNN. 2008-10-31. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  12. ^ "Winning The Electoral College". Fox News. April 27, 2010.
  13. ^ "roadto270". hosted.ap.org. Retrieved 2016-09-22.
  14. ^ "Election 2008: Electoral College Update - Rasmussen Reports™". www.rasmussenreports.com. Retrieved 2016-09-22.
  15. ^ Election 2008 Polls - Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Presidential Elections
  16. ^ "Presidential Campaign Finance". Archived from the original on 2009-03-24. Retrieved 2009-08-20.
  17. ^ "Map: Campaign Ad Spending - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  18. ^ "Map: Campaign Candidate Visits - Election Center 2008 from CNN.com". CNN. Retrieved May 26, 2010.
  19. ^ "Electoral College". California Secretary of State. Archived from the original on October 30, 2008. Retrieved 2008-11-01.
  20. ^ Kentucky's electors » Archive » Evening News and Tribune
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